The decline of the UK economy

[xxxx]

Just this really.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/coronavirus-slump-could-delay-building-of-300000-homes

 

[xxxx]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/uk-economy-fall-covid-19-gdp-figures-coronavirus-pandemic

[Killer Bunny]

Wait till Q2 comes out...?

[Speed1987]

"More than 300,000 planned new homes may remain on the drawing board over the next five years...

...the number of new homes being built, with 85,000 predicted to be lost this financial year, according to a study by the property agency Savills with the housing charity Shelter."

Good news, the free market has spoken. 

Although I don't agree the economy won't recover, as quickly as the dooms day crowd.

Housing building ⬇️, money in supply ⬆️.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Speed1987

[Speed1987]

What will be interesting, is how Birmingham and Manchester, benefit from sales in London and relocation.

Trickle down economics, will be good for the working & middle class owners in these cities.

These cities housing prices, are held up by geniue local demand.

It's a real transfer of wealth from, international investors, money from QE etc.

Due the the three D's @Killer Bunnypromotes.

[Killer Bunny]

9 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

"More than 300,000 planned new homes may remain on the drawing board over the next five years...

...the number of new homes being built, with 85,000 predicted to be lost this financial year, according to a study by the property agency Savills with the housing charity Shelter."

Good news, the free market has spoken. 

Although I don't agree the economy won't recover, as quickly as the dooms day crowd.

Housing building ⬇️, money in supply ⬆️.

Since when did house building or not ever contribute to HPI or HPC?  2m extra unemployed and you continue to say we won;t be in huge recession/depression?

And re HPs, are you EVER going to answer about they won't reduce mortgage rates? Of course you won't. Troll.

[rantnrave]

Is there any way we can get some state support to the housebuilders?

[Killer Bunny]

2 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Is there any way we can get some state support to the housebuilders?

That's the bulldog spirit!

[ForGreatLager...]

14 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Is there any way we can get some state support to the housebuilders?

Yes, or what about a whip-round? Come on guys, dig deep, they really have suffered over the years. 

[richmondtw]

35 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

the number of new homes being built, with 85,000 predicted to be lost this financial year, according to a study by the property agency Savills with the housing charity Shelter."

Good news, the free market has spoken. 

Supply and demand ! Less houses will stabilise prices

[Speed1987]

46 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

Since when did house building or not ever contribute to HPI or HPC?  2m extra unemployed and you continue to say we won;t be in huge recession/depression?

And re HPs, are you EVER going to answer about they won't reduce mortgage rates? Of course you won't. Troll.

I thought you understood basic economics of supply and demand? 

Your argued recently, that immigration has nothing to do with HPI. Your disputing that increased numbers in the population, doesn't lead to increased house prices, whilst supply is restricted.

2m unemployed, I agree, however how many of them transfer to repossessions is a different matter. Right now people are reorganizing their finances, boomers are releasing equity for their children to buy. People are receiving free furlough money and saving, Grant's for the self employed. 

Businesses will bounce back... we will adjust, the government will continue to spend to create jobs and revive businesses.

The banks, building societies are gonna fail, if house prices take such a plunge.  They are allowing, holders to transfer to IO or promising no repossessions for 1 year...?

Even if we don't go negative with rates, money supply will just be increased. ⬆️GDP, ⬆️QE, ⬆️inflation, ⬇️ debt eroded.

You keep calling me a troll, I think your the troll, for deluding others on what the future holds. Even though everything previously, contradicts your ideas.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Speed1987

[Killer Bunny]

1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

What will be interesting, is how Birmingham and Manchester, benefit from sales in London and relocation.

Trickle down economics, will be good for the working & middle class owners in these cities.

These cities housing prices, are held up by geniue local demand.

It's a real transfer of wealth from, international investors, money from QE etc.

Due the the three D's @Killer Bunnypromotes.

1. Trickle Down has NEVER been good for anyone other than the 1%, perhaps 10%.

2. Genuine demand?  There is no such thing, without easy lending, as you well know!  Lending is tight just now. Probably the hose will be turned on but it isn't just now.

3. As if I'm promoting the 3 D's.  As if it isn't a real thing.

Troll.

[Killer Bunny]

33 minutes ago, richmondtw said:

Supply and demand ! Less houses will stabilise prices

Nope. Never happened.  It's all about lending and mortgage rates.  Always has been but TPTB have brainwashed everyone into

Building

'Demand' (?)

Islands

Population / Immigration

We're a nation of property buyers

 

are the drivers of HPs.

[Killer Bunny]

15 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I thought you understood basic economics of supply and demand? 

Your argued recently, that immigration has nothing to do with HPI. Your disputing that increased numbers in the population, doesn't lead to increased house prices, whilst supply is restricted.

2m unemployed, I agree, however how many of them transfer to repossessions is a different matter. Right now people are reorganizing their finances, boomers are releasing equity for their children to buy. People are receiving free furlough money and saving, Grant's for the self employed. 

Businesses will bounce back... we will adjust, the government will continue to spend to create jobs and revive businesses.

The banks, building societies are gonna fail, if house prices take such a plunge.  They are allowing, holders to transfer to IO or promising no repossessions for 1 year...?

Even if we don't go negative with rates, money supply will just be increased. ⬆️GDP, ⬆️QE, ⬆️inflation, ⬇️ debt eroded.

You keep calling me a troll, I think your the troll, for deluding others on what the future holds. Even though everything previously, contradicts your ideas.

Ah, history again. 

History is that they slashed mortgage rates every time there was even a mild recession.  And as I've pointed out to you several times this is the biggest recession since the 1930s and rates will not fall. But that is unimportant to you.

As to building, see my comments just made.  And if you're so smart tell us when building ever affected HPs, materially and sustainably.

As if 2m going to repo is what is needed for an HPC.  Just far fewer folk buying is all that is required. Who will buy as prices are falling (see from Sep or Oct/Nov)? and with 2m extra unemployed. 

Yes the British SME will adapt.  We are British and great and it will take years.  If we actually Brexit, that will undoubtedly help but only slow down the, er, economic slowdown.

But to suggest we will not have a major recession is unrealistic and trollish.

Now muting you as you're not worth reading.  Spreading BS which lacks reality. Rose tinted glasses never help.  In 2007+ I was told I was just spreading unrealistic doom and gloom.  Nope. I was right and, in retrospect, it was obvious even then but the bulk of folk didn't want to see reality.

To everyone: make sure your money looks after you bcos the govt won't, nor will the economy.

[xxxx]

UK furlough bill hits £25bn with 9.3m workers covered

New figures show that this scheme is now supporting 9.3m workers, who are currently furloughed on 80% of their wages (up to £2,500 per month). That’s an increase of around 100,000 in the last week, suggesting that some firms are still struggling even as the economy reopens.

The total cost of the furlough scheme has now reached £25.5bn. It runs until the end of October, but today is the last day to add new workers to the list.

[xxxx]

Housebuilder Redrow to scale back London operations after Covid-19 hit

UK housebuilder Redrow has sent a shiver through the property sector this morning, as it warned that profits will be badly hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

[ForGreatLager...]

12 minutes ago, xxxx said:

UK furlough bill hits £25bn with 9.3m workers covered

New figures show that this scheme is now supporting 9.3m workers, who are currently furloughed on 80% of their wages (up to £2,500 per month). That’s an increase of around 100,000 in the last week, suggesting that some firms are still struggling even as the economy reopens.

The total cost of the furlough scheme has now reached £25.5bn. It runs until the end of October, but today is the last day to add new workers to the list.

So just after the initial wave of the virus, that’s nearly a third of the UK working population looking at potential redundancy. And apparently there’s still worse to come from the pandemic. It does feel like we’re in the calm before the storm to me. 

[blackhole]

12 minutes ago, ForGreatLager... said:

So just after the initial wave of the virus, that’s nearly a third of the UK working population looking at potential redundancy. And apparently there’s still worse to come from the pandemic. It does feel like we’re in the calm before the storm to me. 

Absolutely.  2008 GFC unemployment was spread over the course of 2+ yrs, before gradually recovering.  

What makes this different to 2008?

- sudden job losses in the millions over course of weeks, rather than years as per previous GFC
- higher public and private debt since 2008 levels
- hitting multiple verticals due to nature of a pandemic
- the need for a "furlough scheme" => £25bn of debt added to state within months, and growing
- we are already at ZIRP, back in late 2008 we just entered the ZIRP phase 
- it is evident that there maybe oversupply, overcapacity in many verticals, zombie corps thanks to the last decade+ of QE etc

Edited June 30, 2020 by blackhole

[Fretful Mother]

24 minutes ago, xxxx said:

Housebuilder Redrow to scale back London operations after Covid-19 hit

UK housebuilder Redrow has sent a shiver through the property sector this morning, as it warned that profits will be badly hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

Interesting! Strange that they've just increased the asking prices on the cutesy Redrow Rabbit Hutches near me. I thought it was to make the people who've bought them feel better - especially as the houses that were looking over fields when they were bought are now looking at an identical house.

[ForGreatLager...]

5 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Absolutely.  2008 GFC unemployment was spread over the course of 2+ yrs, before gradually recovering.  

What makes this different to 2008?

- sudden job losses in the millions over course of weeks, rather than years as per previous GFC
- higher public and private debt since 2008 levels
- hitting multiple verticals due to nature of a pandemic
- the need for a "furlough scheme" => £25bn of debt added to state within months, and growing
- we are already at ZIRP, back in late 2008 we just entered the ZIRP phase 
- it is evident that there maybe oversupply, overcapacity in many verticals, zombie corps thanks to the last decade+ of QE etc

And that was about 2.5 million people. At the end of this year we could potentially have:

1.5 million officially unemployed

8.5 million ‘economically inactive’

9.3 million redundant

In Total: 19.3 million people not working.

[Trump Invective]

Don't remember mothballing working very well in Spain 2008 onwards 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, xxxx said:

UK furlough bill hits £25bn with 9.3m workers covered

New figures show that this scheme is now supporting 9.3m workers, who are currently furloughed on 80% of their wages (up to £2,500 per month). That’s an increase of around 100,000 in the last week, suggesting that some firms are still struggling even as the economy reopens.

The total cost of the furlough scheme has now reached £25.5bn. It runs until the end of October, but today is the last day to add new workers to the list.

Or more firms have discovered they can claim the furlough payments for staff working at home. I know two people who are furloughed and say they are working harder than ever, I am sure there are lots more out there.   

[NoHPCinTheUK]

54 minutes ago, ForGreatLager... said:

And that was about 2.5 million people. At the end of this year we could potentially have:

1.5 million officially unemployed

8.5 million ‘economically inactive’

9.3 million redundant

In Total: 19.3 million people not working.

I was reading that right know, the ratio of people in a job vs population is 50% in the US. Yes, one American out of 2 is not working today. 
I feel some people have not realized the extend of the proverbial shit hitting the fan here. 

[ForGreatLager...]

12 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

I was reading that right know, the ratio of people in a job vs population is 50% in the US. Yes, one American out of 2 is not working today. 
I feel some people have not realized the extend of the proverbial shit hitting the fan here. 

Quick back of the fag packet maths suggests by the end of this year we could see out of a population of 66 million, just 22 million in employment. And that will be a mix full time, part time and the zero hours gig economy jobs. 

[Roman Roady]

58 minutes ago, ForGreatLager... said:

Quick back of the fag packet maths suggests by the end of this year we could see out of a population of 66 million, just 22 million in employment. And that will be a mix full time, part time and the zero hours gig economy jobs. 

In normal pre covid times, there wasnt anyone who could convince me that a pile of serviced bricks and mortar in the UK were worth such a large slice of the worlds wealth.

Good luck post covid!