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Are We An Extreme Minority?


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1 hour ago, Warlord said:

... and if so why?

This is quite a busy forum but I was looking on twitter and the official HPC account has 6,000 followers.

Mumsnet  has 150,000 followers!

So the deluded HPI+ Forever crowd are over 20x the size of those who believe in RATIONAL economics!

I assume that the 150,000 are just ordinary Mumsnet members and not a house price sub-category, so you are hardly comparing like with like. Most of them are more worried about DS's choice of secondary school and not house prices. And nor are you automatically a fan of forever rising house prices simply because you follow Mumsnet on Twitter. 

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1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

??????,

Precisely.

When people like myself, offer an alternative perspective. I'm heckled or delusional.

Which, is strange.. as in essence, I just want wealth progression for all.

Socialists never want wealth progression for all.  What they want is power. I suggest Socialists look at history and current affairs.

Only free markets raises wealth for all.

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11 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

What if rather than house prices falling drastically, we just push more credit, increase the money supply, QE and go negative on interest rates.

Yea I agree, I wouldn't buy now, but rather wait until Furlough ends, after the dust settles, I expect more house price inflation.

 

Fully agree. And once furlough ends, there will be further schemes that will allow the merry-go-round to continue. People need to remember that it's not just the UK government or BOE that is manipulating the system, but virtually every single government and central bank is at it too.

If all I had was a very large pile of cash, or digits on a computer database somewhere which is all it is, I'd be very worried about my future at this point.

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6 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

Fully agree. And once furlough ends, there will be further schemes that will allow the merry-go-round to continue. People need to remember that it's not just the UK government or BOE that is manipulating the system, but virtually every single government and central bank is at it too.

If all I had was a very large pile of cash, or digits on a computer database somewhere which is all it is, I'd be very worried about my future at this point.

It doesn't appear the UK gov have the capacity to keep extending and pretending - see the £/$ cable which is one of the worst performing currencies out there in 2020.

Me and the wife have already put off consumption due to the poor £/$ ratio as of late.  And that's before we talk about food inflation.

It appears there is a perceived need to kill the furlough schemes as they stand - have you noticed how occupied the beaches are lately?

Edited by blackhole
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If all I had was a very large pile of cash, or digits on a computer database somewhere which is all it is, I'd be very worried about my future at this point.

A bit of a minor point and a tangent, but a lot of places have stopped taking cash payments. Once all payments are made via the net, then control and monitoring is complete.

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The reason those on this forum are in a minority is because positions they have taken run counter to positions that the majority of voters have taken. I would guess the majority of those on this forum are net savers, while the majority of the working population is in debt. Similarly, i would guess there are more renters than homeowners. With very few exceptions, most peoples opinions are based on, or at least strongly reinforced by their economic position. All this is amplified by governments making policy that blatantly favours homeowners and debtors, to win votes, but also fear that if they dont, the whole system will come crashing down. 

I would also guess that like myself, many people on this forum would like to think they make rational decisions and dont follow the crowd. Unfortunately, following the crowd does have benefits. As every school boy knows, there is safety in numbers. The other problem with being rational and reasonable is you get caught out by those who only care about maintaining power. Rationality said there would be a huge housing crash, George Osborne knew this too, hence his decision to use taxpayer money for HTB. 

Finally, while I'm on the topic, if you are the type of person who genuinely takes responsibility for their actions, you will also find yourself in minority these days. The government and media also knows that, explaining why they were so quick to dole out huge sums of money during the covid crisis to people earning excellent sums of money and should have put a bit to one side. 

 

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1 hour ago, Warlord said:

... and if so why?

This is quite a busy forum but I was looking on twitter and the official HPC account has 6,000 followers.

Mumsnet  has 150,000 followers!

So the deluded HPI+ Forever crowd are over 20x the size of those who believe in RATIONAL economics!

So why are those who want an affordable home of their own in a minority in this country? What the hell has happened? 

For me I think delusion has taken hold of the country. Even on here there are plenty of sceptics of an HPC or how big the correction will be just because...well it aint happened yet so it aint going to happen. Really? Is that a sane argument? No, it's not!

 Clearly people are utterly deluded. The market is deluded i.e $1 million shoe boxes in London. This is classic bubble economics and it has genuinely gripped the nation. It's going to take some time to shake off these delusions (and a lot of pain i'm afraid) before we return to normalcy.

 

ml3vg.jpg

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9 minutes ago, blackhole said:

It doesn't appear the UK gov have the capacity to keep extending and pretending - see the £/$ cable which is one of the worst performing currencies out there in 2020.

 

This Socialist govt will do whatever it can to pretend all is well, by borrowing and borrowing and raising, in due course, inflation.  So everyone will pay for it that way.  As well as of course by higher taxes (clear or hidden).

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2 minutes ago, byron78 said:

I didn't have you down as a globalist.

You think we have free markets?  Or had, recently?  Think again.

And I would indeed buy goods/services where I get the best value.  Wouldn't you?  More fool you, if not.

If that means from Timbuktu, so be it.  But one doesn't have to be a Globalist to do that.

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People are programmed by the education system to think a certain way, nice compliant sheep when they become adults - unaware of the treadmill they are on.

I had 1 hour of French every day for 5 years at high school. I’ve been to France once in my life and didn’t need to speak a word of it - what a waste of my time. Meanwhile everything I know about markets/mortgages/interest rates/LTV etc has been self taught as I didn’t get anything on that at school, a coincidence perhaps?
 

If you follow the herd, eventually you are going to end up in the slaughterhouse.

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43 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

You think we have free markets?  Or had, recently?  Think again.

And I would indeed buy goods/services where I get the best value.  Wouldn't you?  More fool you, if not.

If that means from Timbuktu, so be it.  But one doesn't have to be a Globalist to do that.

Minimal states (which most of us free marketeers want) have a very obvious problem. I'm frankly not expecting someone who only knows the words "socialist" and "remoaner" to understand why free movement of labour is a natural result of that...

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2 hours ago, blackhole said:

Financialization.  From homes to cars, its found its way into anything it can.  The incentives (for those able to partake) are strong, easy gains etc.  It's planted into peoples minds like a virus, with no questions if or buts.

Why be productive to gain wealth when you can merely sign a piece of paper?  Why skill up and invest your own time + money when it just requires a few signatures to be a financial god?  

#DDTG for the win!  

Dead centre on the nail.

Edited by jonb2
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2 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

I do feel big business should be left to fail.

I would prefer, deregulation, limited goverment, free markets, personal responsibility.

 

2 hours ago, blackhole said:

I wonder if its possible to have these qualities and have a FIAT currency.  Also seems impossible these days.

Yes because like many things one contradicts the other......can't have it both ways.

The market is not free, people will never be responsible especially if they see others in leadership are not responsible, helping themselves to all the benefits of the job....deregulation will mean greater and growing differences amoung people in society.....no regulation can only work when those that have access to it do not abuse it.....human nature says the chances are they will, and will still ask for more, never enough..;)

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2 hours ago, Trampa501 said:

If ordinary working people outside of London were able to buy a house at just three or four times the average salary, then I doubt this site would need to exist. We all realise that a London or a New York will command higher prices because of the influx of people seeking to make their fortune (although this may change with the consequences of pandemic).

But it's this bubble in the rest of the country, inflated through credit easing, that has created a huge problem.

Yep

 

1 hour ago, xxxx said:

Rent is not dead money in a falling market.  When the SE house prices fall 50%, I will receive all my rent back, and more.  The renters will not be loosing in this pandemic.  I would much rather be a renter right now, than a oo who has brought in the last 10 years.  HPI in the last 10 years does not encompass sensible buyers.  A sensible buyer equals buying a house for value for money and reasonable house price/salary ratios.

But you never run the numbers - the average fall might be 50% it won't buts that because tens of thousands of new builds will fall dramatically a 3/4 bed detached in a good area won't because there is a natural floor where people pile in. A 750k house now will appear a bargain at £500-£600k plenty of money around.

Bought in 2009 sold in 2017 seemed pretty sensible to me.....

 

 

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27 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Minimal states (which most of us free marketeers want) have a very obvious problem. I'm frankly not expecting someone who only knows the words "socialist" and "remoaner" to understand why free movement of labour is a natural result of that...

Take away free healthcare and state benefits for say first 1 or 3 years and free movement will no longer be an issue. But I’m frankly not expecting someone who thinks only on one level to understand free markets.

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1 hour ago, Killer Bunny said:

Socialists never want wealth progression for all.  What they want is power. I suggest Socialists look at history and current affairs.

Only free markets raises wealth for all.

+1 As a cherry on top, communists want to spend other people's money.

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3 hours ago, Warlord said:

... and if so why?

This is quite a busy forum but I was looking on twitter and the official HPC account has 6,000 followers.

Mumsnet  has 150,000 followers!

So the deluded HPI+ Forever crowd are over 20x the size of those who believe in RATIONAL economics!

So why are those who want an affordable home of their own in a minority in this country? What the hell has happened? 

For me I think delusion has taken hold of the country. Even on here there are plenty of sceptics of an HPC or how big the correction will be just because...well it aint happened yet so it aint going to happen. Really? Is that a sane argument? No, it's not!

 Clearly people are utterly deluded. The market is deluded i.e $1 million shoe boxes in London. This is classic bubble economics and it has genuinely gripped the nation. It's going to take some time to shake off these delusions (and a lot of pain i'm afraid) before we return to normalcy.

 

I think there was a general coming around to the idea houses were too expensive and 'something' was wrong - its more common than is given credit fo - especially in London !  But you know, austerity, Brexit etc etc

Problem is if you want to buy a house this year for you and yours what do you do ? Either you (can) buy into the system or you give up.

Also hpi has got its tentacles into everything, 'everything' then becomes a kind of human shield.. Personally I'd want a specific and perpetual hit, grinding down house prices relative to everything else - or what's the point? Everything collapses but five minutes later the whole sh1t show starts again ?

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