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I'm calling it... Prices have peaked (again)


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I'm seeing lots of new listings at crazy prices and lots of reductions from crazy prices. I think the post lockdown insanity is being replaced by dawning realisation that salaries and asking prices need to align.

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45 minutes ago, Sausage said:

I'm seeing lots of new listings at crazy prices and lots of reductions from crazy prices. I think the post lockdown insanity is being replaced by dawning realisation that salaries and asking prices need to align.

I am seeing this in the SE.  Very few properties are selling, the market has been on pause since March.  Mortgages are being pulled, from previously agreed sales as furlough is now taken into account.

The initial mini boom is over.  There is plenty of supply in SE, but no demand.  Mexican standoff.  The is no consistency in the housing market right now.  The only properties that are selling are at huge discounts from asking prices.  A lot of staff within the conveyancing process are still not at work and all the backlogs continue (this is for residential).  Many sales that were agree before Covid, remain stuck.

Further North has seen rapid transactions since the market re-opened.  Completions within a month.  These are from investors.  This is now slowing down.  Covid has changed the complete footprint of the housing/rental market in the U.K.  It will level out prices between the North and South, the South, being in a huge bubble, has further to fall.

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The market is not on pause. The market crashed. The market is on pause is a EA fairy tale for the press. Double digit GDP fall and there are still people out there thinking house prices will “correct”. 
People need to start realizing that we are going to see something in a scale neither our parents nor grandparents have ever seen. The system is broken, Covid just showed how much it was running close to the limit. 

 

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The kite flying is done by greedy fuqwits,, hoping to off load on to an even greater mug.  They do it because it is free, and the rewards can be a lottery win, if you find that idiot.

Agree, slowly the attempted sellers are understanding the direction of travel, but wage vs. Asking Price is a difficult concept after 40 years and knobbers V.I.s.  They are trying to hold back the water, and prevent people getting ahead of the curve.

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i have seen two houses near me with asking prices 100k ish less than the peaky prices one was in an auction and sold prior and the other with an EA both needed gutting sell with in days.  

still far too much 

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34 minutes ago, xxxx said:

I am seeing this in the SE.  Very few properties are selling, the market has been on pause since March.  Mortgages are being pulled, from previously agreed sales as furlough is now taken into account.

The initial mini boom is over.  There is plenty of supply in SE, but no demand.  Mexican standoff.  The is no consistency in the housing market right now.  The only properties that are selling are at huge discounts from asking prices.  A lot of staff within the conveyancing process are still not at work and all the backlogs continue (this is for residential).  Many sales that were agree before Covid, remain stuck.

Further North has seen rapid transactions since the market re-opened.  Completions within a month.  These are from investors.  This is now slowing down.  Covid has changed the complete footprint of the housing/rental market in the U.K.  It will level out prices between the North and South, the South, being in a huge bubble, has further to fall.

Reminds me of just before they introduced HTB in 2012 or whatever. I just don't think the govt have the resources to pull that trick again. Or the backing of the BoE.

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8 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Reminds me of just before they introduced HTB in 2012 or whatever. I just don't think the govt have the resources to pull that trick again. Or the backing of the BoE.

I don’t see how they can prop up house prices, while many oo are defaulting on mortgages and being repossessed.

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2 minutes ago, xxxx said:

I don’t see how they can prop up house prices, while many oo are defaulting on mortgages and being repossessed.

And govt finances haven't even recovered from the previous recession yet...

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1 minute ago, Si1 said:

And govt finances haven't even recovered from the previous recession yet...

And that wasn’t even a recession.  Technically, it was, but they didn’t allow it to run it’s natural course.  Market manipulation.

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2 minutes ago, xxxx said:

And that wasn’t even a recession.  Technically, it was, but they didn’t allow it to run it’s natural course.  Market manipulation.

They went rather beyond the remit to sustain demand...

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Some people price high because they have to.

Someone I know is selling. New build, 2016 bought at £455k. Initial asking price was £499k, now dropped to £475k. There is an identical flat in the block up at £430k... IMO the 'natural' market price is less than £400k now. A block of flats of similar age but not as nice location is under £350k, a flat in an older building (so not 'luxury') under £300k.

The premium seems way out of kilter, but it is like fishing and hoping to get a bite.

I've watched their area really closes and you can see on Landreg that most of their neighbours paid even more, between £460k and £480k. Over the past year there has been a procession of listings at £500k, £525k, £550k, even saw one for over £600k. None sold.

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

I just don't get the insanity at all - who is doing the kite flying? why? I guess people are insane, hence the insanity

There were very few new listings during lockdown and apparently there haven't been many new listings once the housing market was re-opened. The number of buyers has decreased, but perhaps not as much as the decrease in the number of sellers. Additionally there is the supposed increase in demand for certain types of property (e.g. garden, nice location). I don't think it's surprising if some people try to take advantage of these conditions with optimistic asking prices. 

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1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

People need to start realizing that we are going to see something in a scale neither our parents nor grandparents have ever seen. The system is broken, Covid just showed how much it was running close to the limit.

Yup agree with this...the scales will slowly start falling from their eyes. The average persons world view will be very different come the Autumn. Historians will write of the furlough financed halcyon days of summer 2020 in the same manner as the summers of 1914 and 1939; the time lines will be the same also, from the phoney war to the darkest days.

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The area I'm looking in (North Nottinghamshire) is still seeing large amount of sales being agreed even the slightly older new build types. It appears sellers are still getting close to the pre covid prices. I've noticed a huge amount of properties being listed daily and selling within weeks. I believe a lot of the sellers understand and are selling before things are go south. I don't know what the buyers are thinking. It'll be interesting to see the land registry data over the coming months. I'm looking to buy in 6-12 months so watching with interest

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I don’t agree the system was failing not broken, Covid 19 is the reason for the mega crash, something that came from nowhere and could not be planned for like the Pompeii volcano 

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13 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I don’t agree the system was failing not broken, 

It was broken when you consider the economic background is not long-term going to support it. It was only stable on some optimistic assumptions.

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54 minutes ago, fatspanner said:

The area I'm looking in (North Nottinghamshire) is still seeing large amount of sales being agreed even the slightly older new build types. It appears sellers are still getting close to the pre covid prices. I've noticed a huge amount of properties being listed daily and selling within weeks. I believe a lot of the sellers understand and are selling before things are go south. I don't know what the buyers are thinking. It'll be interesting to see the land registry data over the coming months. I'm looking to buy in 6-12 months so watching with interest

See if they actually sell not just sstc.

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Looking to buy at the moment due to a change in circumstances, was hoping for some big reductions. Had two viewings in Lambourn Berkshire last week now both STC

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-93030857.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-77763163.html

Also two in a completely different area Teignmouth

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-73312666.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-72077065.html

Will have to see if they all complete weren't on the market for long and I wanted 100k of all of them any decent property in the areas I have been looking at are all going STC very quickly. Can't believe the prices some are fetching getting fed up now.

Any way other than Land Registry to see when sold and completed?   

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25 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I don’t agree the system was failing not broken, Covid 19 is the reason for the mega crash, something that came from nowhere and could not be planned for like the Pompeii volcano 

As always, "it's more complicated than that".

Some things have been caused by COVID whereas others would have happened anyway and just been brought forward by COVID.

For example, the collapse of restaurant businesses to nil is clearly directly caused by COVID.  The increased use of online shopping was happening anyway.

Those people hoping for a TEOTWAWKI situation provoked by COVID are likely to be disappointed.  The whole world is gradually coalescing on a market-based economic system with a significant socialist overlay.  Over the last 30 years the far left Chinese and far right Americans have moved closer to the middle ground Europe has been in for the last 80 years anyway.  That isn't going to change based upon COVID.

However, the 2007/8 crash has never ended.  It's still going.  Interest rates at nil and QE can only be a temporary fix.  So *something* is broken, and needs to correct.  And when it does, HPI will correct with it.  But that's not some kind of Armageddon collapse coming.

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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