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karhu

Bank Of England Mpc; Uk Interest Rates

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Since we haven't been polled this month to my knowledge.

That's a tight distribution around NO CHANGE according to the HPC shadow MPC.

Edited by karhu

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My guess is hold with a couple looking to raise (and maybe a muppet wanting a cut).

That'll be Steve Nickell. Economist my ****

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I think you will find there are more muppets with Gordon's hand shoved right up to their tonsils - see recent out of meeting commentary released to the press from various members.

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Seems to me that they've been relying on threatening to raise rates to keep the markets happy for the last few months: with the US rates reaching or passing ours, threats aren't going to work much longer.

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Anybody got any views on £/$ rates if MPC holds and Fed raises again?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_finan...html?engine=rss

Cable remained relatively unchanged for the day following back to back days of large losses against the dollar. Over the past two trading sessions, the pound lost over 300 points against the greenback as the market perceived divergent interest rate policies in the near future from the Fed and the BOE.

Expect more of the same.

We're getting very close to 12 month lows at $1.7

Edited by karhu

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Anybody got any views on £/$ rates if MPC holds and Fed raises again?

The pound would weaken against virtually all other currencies if the dollar has a more attractive savings rate. Why buy pounds when dollars are safer and see a better return? If the BoE allows the dollar to overtake us (which I think will happen) the currency (sterling) will devalue and all our imports will become more expensive. We will all become poorer.

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We will all become poorer.

And inflation will rise ever higher as imports become even more expensive.

We're at the beginnings of what will probably be a decade-long commodity boom: the last thing we need is a weak currency.

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40 out of 40 Economists polled by Bloomberg say no change - bit like "ask the audience" on Who wants to be a Millionaire". Reckon the MPC vote will still be 8-1 with the rest of them getting bored with Stephen Nickell and whispering about him behind his back.

Can someone do a poll on here for what we reckon to be the next MOVE. Sorry I don't have the polling function cos I'm a Noob I suppose.

Anybody got any views on £/$ rates if MPC holds and Fed raises again?

next FED hike is already priced into Cable.

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Interest-rate futures show traders see a 90 percent chance the Fed will increase its target rate to 4.75 percent when it meets on March 28. In early January, the chances were less than 50 percent. The odds of a 5 percent benchmark by July rose to 58 percent on Feb. 3 from 16 percent a week earlier.

Bloomberg February 6th

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I agree, I think seven will vote to hold and two will vote for a rate cut

I think there are far too many signs of an inflation tsunami heading straight for us for all the non-muppets to want to hold... even if they don't vote for a raise now, they're probably going to be arguing a likely need for raising rates in the future.

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I think there are far too many signs of an inflation tsunami heading straight for us for all the non-muppets to want to hold... even if they don't vote for a raise now, they're probably going to be arguing a likely need for raising rates in the future.

Are you confident that 8 out of 9 of the MPC are non-muppets?? :lol: (bearing in mind how much influence Gordon B. has over the selection of this "independent" committee.

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Are you confident that 8 out of 9 of the MPC are non-muppets??

No, but I hope that at least five of them will value their reputation more than Gordon Brown's.

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...RITAIN-BANK.XML

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - British interest rates look set to stay at 4.5 percent this week amid growing signs that both the housing market and consumer spending are on the mend.

All 45 analysts polled by Reuters last week predicted the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee would leave rates unchanged for the sixth month running after a quarter-point cut in August.

"The Bank of England meets this month against a backdrop of somewhat mixed economic data and a fresh set of forecasts to be published in its February Inflation Report," said George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank.

"While at least one member -- Stephen Nickell -- might vote for a further cut in rates at this meeting, a move looks unlikely given the recent recovery in the housing market, retail sales and economic growth."

Many experts argue the latest revival could prove to be a mirage as rising unemployment and soaring utility bills take their toll on consumers still saddled with huge debts.

Record numbers of consumers declared themselves bankrupt late last year even before Christmas credit card bills will have hit their doorsteps.

Newspapers, meanwhile, have been carrying scare stories that household heating bills will climb by as much as 25 percent just as temperatures have dropped across much of the country.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...RLING-CLOSE.XML

"Today's data is not sufficiently weak for fixed income markets to price in a rate cut, but further weak UK data likely will prove the catalyst for markets to price in lower base rates," Steven Saywell, chief currency strategist at Citigroup, said in a note.

It said long euro/sterling is an attractive trade that the bank believes will ultimately prove more profitable than short sterling/dollar.

Edited by karhu

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No change. It would be suicidal to cut this month after the 'interesting' markets of the past few days. Even treasury stooges can see that.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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