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Seeing major downshift in valuations of newly marketed properties


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31 minutes ago, MarkD said:

From what I’ve seen it inflates asset values and destroys currency value. Agreed we’ve not seen the associated inflation......yet.

Different situation to the credit crunch.  You can't generalise.

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2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Different situation to the credit crunch.  You can't generalise.

So assuming the governor holds good on his promise and prints another £150 billion, what's the likely effect? Will I need a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread?

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14 minutes ago, MarkD said:

So assuming the governor holds good on his promise and prints another £150 billion, what's the likely effect? Will I need a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread?

I don't know. That's why I said I don't know.

In the credit crunch the banks were a big deflationary black hole. Not the case now. So all that QE and public spending may cause inflation as KB says. More importantly IRs may rise to head it off. That's all I know. And of course the economy and coronavirus are moving targets. So frankly I don't know sh1t ;)

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55 minutes ago, MarkD said:

So assuming the governor holds good on his promise and prints another £150 billion, what's the likely effect? Will I need a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread?

Did you need one when the £127bn Term Funding Scheme was introduced in September 2016?

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12 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Did you need one when the £127bn Term Funding Scheme was introduced in September 2016?

No, but I have noticed they're very popular in places like Zimbabwe hence the question. Problem is I don't know sh1t either!?

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

I don't know. That's why I said I don't know.

In the credit crunch the banks were a big deflationary black hole. Not the case now. So all that QE and public spending may cause inflation as KB says. More importantly IRs may rise to head it off. That's all I know. And of course the economy and coronavirus are moving targets. So frankly I don't know sh1t ;)

QE goes into financial mkts, not the economy.  But - unlike 2008/09 - the Bank is printing to hand to govt to spend.  Hugely inflationary.  Like all these Furlough schemes.  Most expensive unemployment benefit on the planet.

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32 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

QE goes into financial mkts, not the economy.  But - unlike 2008/09 - the Bank is printing to hand to govt to spend.  Hugely inflationary.  Like all these Furlough schemes.  Most expensive unemployment benefit on the planet.

Whatever.

You predicted a super/hyperinflation would follow the initial tranche of QE in 2009-10. You were hopelessly mistaken.

The BoJ has been printing fully half the Japanese govt budget for years. Inflationary? Nope.

£127bn in helicopter money dropped on the City of London via the Term Funding Scheme 2016-18. Resulting inflation? Lower than a grasshopper's knee.

As for the present:

Quote

Official data from the Office of National Statistics showed that UK inflation dropped to a four-year low of 0.5% in May, alongside a record slump of 16.7% in fuel costs due to low global oil prices.

 

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On 15/06/2020 at 18:29, Kosmin said:

Detached houses away from cities have been touted as those most likely to gain as a result of the pandemic. Did vendors add 50k or more to their asking prices last month?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-house-prices-jump-in-england-as-estate-agents-overwhelmed-075824904.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFGYT6HTm_EMofauzYn_5tzdALDwhvlDQUIlm9dngdGaqMxNF6d9JOD_8QO2FXEvr0cAMB3uhvmg6UVA95G_fCdoRkh7iNTDiKfTIITvRHBom5jRX1c2OBHyLv5C3jDP1eApkA3b0XUIRxSttDauJPmYI2ZkDd0x3E1kUyKcrib6

I haven't noticed any change in asking prices. But I have noticed that asking prices don't always move when the market does. In the first half of 2013 a lot of flats asked for around 300k, hoping for 270 and perhaps willing to accept 250. When HTB came along, few bothered to change asking prices, but nobody offers starting at asking prices and would end up accepting around 350. 

I think the rationale for reducing asking prices is to avoid scaring off potential buyers. People seem happy to view and then put in low offers, so I'm not sure there is much need to reduce asking prices. Sensible vendors realise they may need to accept a lower offer, but lower asking prices may just result in even lower offers.

No they didn't - I suppose Herefordshire is remote too, so very vulnerable to economic shock. 

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On 15/06/2020 at 19:35, Si1 said:

the only issue is that the crash was exogenously generated and if that exogenous factor dissipates, then we might - might - have a V-shaped recovery. Ignoring all the new debt and suddenly exposed zombie-entities out there......

Doubt we'll see a V shaped recovery although heaven knows with the various stimulus measures - this is a huge disruption and because of that any recovery will be gradual - or perhaps we'll get another pandemic soon. All to do with bats and habitat destruction in a specific part of Asia driven by palm oil and so on. Even the environmental charities fail to campaign against palm oil - it's nuts. We are doing this because food processors like putting palm oil in their food. And we buy it. 

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12 hours ago, gruffydd said:

How recent is the data on there - never really explored it in depth before. How long do we wait until we know what's going on now, in their stats? 

No idea..... individual properties look at how many price reductions made and still not sold.... comprehensive way of looking at a selling history......?

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3 hours ago, winkie said:

No idea..... individual properties look at how many price reductions made and still not sold.... comprehensive way of looking at a selling history......?

3 weeks till UK property Lion CURRENT asking price index is out, it's gonna be very interesting.

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We bought last year. ? 3 bed semi. House next door went up for sale a week ago at +10% the price we paid and went under offer within a couple of days. It is in much better condition than ours is now and we've spent 10k on ours already. Don't know what they accepted as they are miserable so and sos and don't speak to us.

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On 17/06/2020 at 14:50, zugzwang said:

Whatever.

You predicted a super/hyperinflation would follow the initial tranche of QE in 2009-10. You were hopelessly mistaken.

The BoJ has been printing fully half the Japanese govt budget for years. Inflationary? Nope.

£127bn in helicopter money dropped on the City of London via the Term Funding Scheme 2016-18. Resulting inflation? Lower than a grasshopper's knee.

As for the present:

 

So QE didn't cause house price inflation then.

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49 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

So QE didn't cause house price inflation then.

It did not.  What a strange idea.

Slashing interest rates from 5% to 0.5% in 2009, then HTB caused HPI. Obviously!

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53 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

It did not.  What a strange idea.

Slashing interest rates from 5% to 0.5% in 2009, then HTB caused HPI. Obviously!

And mortgage lending funded by FLS and Termfunding which pushed the mortgage/savings rates down towards the base rate.

1st thing Sunak did when the CV19 hit was.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reintroduce TermFunding.

I look forward to the day when he is jailed.

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