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Seeing major downshift in valuations of newly marketed properties


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Have to admit to just falling off my chair a few times just now - keep a close eye on the properties coming onto the market right now - noticing a major and sudden downshift in valuations, which should drag other house prices down to their level (existing stock). Who really knows how this will progress but an interesting development. 

I have only noticed this trend over the last 7 days btw. It is very recent. Have been looking in various random parts of England and Wales and seeing the same pattern. 

Edited by gruffydd
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Cheltenham here and long time HPC lurker

It is definitely starting around here. This week has seen a huge number of price drops, admittedly they are all small drops around ~10k but there is definitely a change in sentiment from May. 

 

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I'm not seeing any big changes to my usual searches in Bucks and Beds but I am seeing a lot more properties than I would have expected to come on the market in some specific areas I follow. 

It's patchy. I'm seeing in one area only the cheaper shared ownership properties going "under offer" (Bucks) and in another area the cheaper commuter homes (Beds) which would have previously sold to London commuters are sitting unsold.

It's going to be the glut of properties I am seeing in areas of Bucks being in new build areas that may be an indication of what is happening with the market. In one area I keep a search there is another one every few days and there doesn't seem to be any appetite from buyers.

There certainly isn't any shortage of properties coming on to the market I would be happy to live in. It's the still silly prices that are the problem STILL.

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2 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Have to admit to just falling off my chair a few times just now - keep a close eye on the properties coming onto the market right now - noticing a major and sudden downshift in valuations, which should drag other house prices down to their level (existing stock). Who really knows how this will progress but an interesting development. 

I have only noticed this trend over the last 7 days btw. It is very recent. Have been looking in various random parts of England and Wales and seeing the same pattern. 

Estate agents have been closed because of the lockdown, i have heard the same thing but it is difficult to get accurate numbers of how much values have gone down

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I wonder if this is a similar phenomenon to the sudden cliff-fall that the stock market suffered. For a while the market was unconcerned by COVID19 and then overnight it corrected and everyone started panicking.

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I'm not noticing any downward changes at all in newly listed valuations in the areas I keep an eye on (Northamptonshire and Hull). In fact, valuations appear to be slightly more absurd in some Northants cases. Until I see sub £100k houses then I'm not interested. I don't want to pay £145k for a 1980s 1-bed starter cluster home in the rough end of town.  

Having said that, there is one particular listing I've been watching for over 18 months. It's a studio flat in Northampton. It was originally over £100k, then it got relisted Jul 2019 for £95k, reduced in Dec 2019 to £90k, then reduced again 5 days ago to £85k. 

Edited by Orb
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My friend's home in Brentwood had its value drop by 5% for remortgage compared to its 2018 price when he purchased. We will definitely see some drops but not a crash. Market will rebound next year. No need to fall off chair or balcony over this.

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22 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

My friend's home in Brentwood had its value drop by 5% for remortgage compared to its 2018 price when he purchased. We will definitely see some drops but not a crash. Market will rebound next year. No need to fall off chair or balcony over this.

I don't think we can know - if this virus comes in waves over a few years, which is perfectly possible, then this is the new normal. The economy will crater and then adjust but not an easy process. 

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1 minute ago, gruffydd said:

I don't think we can know - if this virus comes in waves over a few years, which is perfectly possible, then this is the new normal. The economy will crater and then adjust but not an easy process. 

I think we will have to accept it like flu, and carry on as normal.

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39 minutes ago, Freki said:

Care to share some of the stuff that makes you "fall of your chair" ? 

I have not noticed anything too unusual in Berkshire tbh

Today I was looking at newly listed properties across Herefordshire - they are listing at least 50k off valuations a month ago, on average - specifically those that are detached. When I have time I run checks across another county. Used to work in property so have a good ability to notice price trends, one way or the other. 

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4 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I think we will have to accept it like flu, and carry on as normal.

It isn't like flu - I work in the medical world hence working this weekend. No rest for us lot. One thing the media miss time and again... the morbidities - the health shadow. How do people recover? How many don't. What I am seeing frightens me (and not just in the old and infirm).  

Edited by gruffydd
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4 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Today I was looking at newly listed properties across Herefordshire - they are listing at least 50k off valuations a month ago, on average - specifically those that are detached. When I have time I run checks across another county. Used to work in property so have a good ability to notice price trends, one way or the other. 

Sounds promising. Another particular price range?

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and sorry for shooting off on a bit of tangent but even seeing post-recovery health impacts among those without symptoms. If you want a virus that **** with your head, this is one. Far more complex than many imagine. 

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24 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Exactly right: 101824413_3125274210867902_6595553376912 

Now you are starting to scare me, i was hoping it would calm down you are saying recovery is not recovery.

A question for you, does remdesivir have an effect on covid 19?

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1 hour ago, Simhadri said:

My friend's home in Brentwood had its value drop by 5% for remortgage compared to its 2018 price when he purchased. We will definitely see some drops but not a crash. Market will rebound next year. No need to fall off chair or balcony over this.

The 'market' was only just functioning before Covid with LTVs at 95%. FTBs scraping a 5% deposit and jumping on the perception of an asset forever increasing in value. Who could blame them with mortgage repayments close to rent.

That perception is changing and their deposit requirements have just trebled.

LTVs is the trigger point for me, a return to 95% will see prices rise from wherever they fall. The banks call the shots, but I'm not expecting them to use any ammo until they've got some sight on this situation. I believe that's unlikely to happen in the next 12 months, at which point further lending restrictions may be applied.

We just don't know for sure, though I'm also seeing drops now and not seeing any grounds for rises.......yet.

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I think that there will be so much 'support' for the 'victims' of the crisis that a real fall in house prices is off the table for the time being.  Hoping to be wrong, though.

IMO It will take an actual systemic-level collapse to make it happen.  At that point, not many regular people will be whooping about cheaper houses though if you did have a decent amount saved it would a great opportunity to dump it before fiat goes to zero/infinity (essentially the same thing).

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6 hours ago, gruffydd said:

noticing a major and sudden downshift in valuations,

Asking prices are not valuations and I assume you are talking about asking prices, because valuations are not really published.

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2 hours ago, shlomo said:

Now you are starting to scare me, i was hoping it would calm down you are saying recovery is not recovery.

A question for you, does remdesivir have an effect on covid 19?

Most people don’t end up like that and do recover but there are many who do have other severe outcomes even if they survive.

GMTV presenter Kate Garraway’s husband Derek Draper seems to be one such high profile case.  And he is only 52.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/11858508/piers-morgan-kate-garraway-derek-draper/amp/

Edited by MARTINX9
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6 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Have to admit to just falling off my chair a few times just now - keep a close eye on the properties coming onto the market right now - noticing a major and sudden downshift in valuations

The dangers of confirmation bias. 

 

I'll wait on the data 

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2 hours ago, shlomo said:

Now you are starting to scare me, i was hoping it would calm down you are saying recovery is not recovery.

A question for you, does remdesivir have an effect on covid 19?

It's too early to understand anything right now - that is the real problem - and don't have any knowledge of remdesivir research - I'd say perhaps in 3 -6 months everything will become clearer but this is a highly complex virus and at the moment we really don't have a clue - need to buy time for the researchers (not that the politicos seem to understand the important of giving them that space/time!). 

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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