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Breaking: UK economy shrinks record 20.4% in April


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The UK's economy shrank by 20.4% in April - the largest monthly contraction on record - as the full impact of lockdown was felt.

The monthly decline was outlined in figures reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The fall is three times greater than the decline seen during the whole of the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn.

The ONS also published figures for the three months from February to April, which showed a decline of 10.4%.

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360

Edited by Warlord
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12 minutes ago, lie to bet said:

Is it usual to publish monthly figures? I thought they were published quarterly.

Is it possible they are trying to get us less sensitive for the even worse May and 2nd quarter figures?

 

Sounds about right.

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I know that the sales of a general hardware retailer with over 400 shops is down about 40% which I think is a good figure to be basing the decline in economic activity on.

Do we really need all this activity anyway? Much of GDP is artificial anyway

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At the moment 'they' believe they are still in control of the economy and will be able to switch it back on in the same way they switched it off with lockdown..... A little bit like the engineers at chernobyl. 

ONS publish the quarterly redundancy stats on Tuesday for April-June, will be interested to see whether those show a spike or whether furlough kept the numbers under control. 

Edited by regprentice
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Shows how much of the economy was deadwood. Value add industries were either running in standby or will come back quick.  Iceland and Greece showed you need a sharp painful contraction to give birth to a more balanced economy.

Crash houses by 40% and you can still have enough FTBs to build up chains, spend on home improvements, and have the confidence to invest speeding a recovery.

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2 hours ago, lie to bet said:

Is it usual to publish monthly figures? I thought they were published quarterly.

Is it possible they are trying to get us less sensitive for the even worse May and 2nd quarter figures?

 

Monthly figures have been published for 18 months or so now

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27 minutes ago, msi said:

Shows how much of the economy was deadwood. Value add industries were either running in standby or will come back quick.  Iceland and Greece showed you need a sharp painful contraction to give birth to a more balanced economy.

Crash houses by 40% and you can still have enough FTBs to build up chains, spend on home improvements, and have the confidence to invest speeding a recovery.

I’m in pharmaceuticals...I have been working as normal, albeit from home. We are recruiting, I get contacted every day about new jobs. Food will be the same. All healthcare, especially private will bounce back massively as NHS waiting lists treble due to lockdown. Pubs, restaurants etc will really suffer. It’s hard to justify any immigration at all given the huge amount job losses that we will be experiencing in the next few months.

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9 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I’m in pharmaceuticals...I have been working as normal, albeit from home. We are recruiting, I get contacted every day about new jobs. Food will be the same. All healthcare, especially private will bounce back massively as NHS waiting lists treble due to lockdown. Pubs, restaurants etc will really suffer. It’s hard to justify any immigration at all given the huge amount job losses that we will be experiencing in the next few months.

Immigration doesn't affect house prices as much as loose credit supply.

I'd recommend a 5 year net zero policy.  All areas, including NHS, university research, industrial, manufacturing.  The idea of Pavel / Ahmed / Nkumbe taking your job needs to be shown up.  Lets get Kevin and Courtney to create the next COVID vaccine.

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38 minutes ago, msi said:

Shows how much of the economy was deadwood. Value add industries were either running in standby or will come back quick.  Iceland and Greece showed you need a sharp painful contraction to give birth to a more balanced economy.

Crash houses by 40% and you can still have enough FTBs to build up chains, spend on home improvements, and have the confidence to invest speeding a recovery.

Lots of the economy is just moving money around for services that we don't _really_ need, but that is capitalism right?  However it is a convenient way of distributing some of the wealth without resorting to universal income...

I work in a company in the top 10 of the FTSE, we manufacture stuff, and I have been more efficient at helping the company make money over the last 3 months despite not being able to buy expensive coffee (my wife drags me to COSTA) or getting a good haircut, and it has saved me a ton of money at the same time

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2 hours ago, lie to bet said:

Is it usual to publish monthly figures? I thought they were published quarterly.

Is it possible they are trying to get us less sensitive for the even worse May and 2nd quarter figures?

 

May GDP will be positive MoM. The biggest question is to what level the economy will recover.  In 2008 it dropped by 6% over a year or so and then started growing again without any bounce back. This time there will be a sharp bounce back when the lockdown is relaxed but I think it is very unlikely it will not go back to the level before the outbreak. My gut feeling is -10% to -5% loss of GDP without a lockdown. OECD predicts -11%.  

Bloomberg

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52 minutes ago, msi said:

Shows how much of the economy was deadwood. Value add industries were either running in standby or will come back quick.  Iceland and Greece showed you need a sharp painful contraction to give birth to a more balanced economy

Not that I can argue that there isn't a lot of deadwood but really at what level is it? Anything beyond barest subsistence? Because we could in theory cut back to that and lose the rest and still survive.

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Don't forget this 'recession' is government induced by a lockdown rather than a natural point we got to in 2008 where fundamentals had gone wrong.

It's hard to predict how, if and when the bounce back will happen or indeed how sustainable it is as a result.  

I think we are more in a 1945 situation rather than 2008.

 

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2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Not that I can argue that there isn't a lot of deadwood but really at what level is it? Anything beyond barest subsistence? Because we could in theory cut back to that and lose the rest and still survive.

True. I'd argue running a business propped up by Benefits, or using IO bridging loans to rent out property is closer to the 'deadwood' end of the spectrum.

How far we cut back will be sentiment driven. Right now I'm happy to have it burn hard - I've spent too long being sh@t at by smug BTL'ers,  asinine PCP'ers, financial sanctimonious equity withdrawl'ers, and the self absorbed influencer/guru to give them any sympathy.  We've had time to prepare, and it will still be painful.

To quote the Matrix :

Quote

There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept.

 

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6 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Not that I can argue that there isn't a lot of deadwood but really at what level is it? Anything beyond barest subsistence? Because we could in theory cut back to that and lose the rest and still survive.

You need it to keep people employed.  With more automation and machine learning coming in the future this will only get bigger, or you need the population to decline.  This is why unrestricted immigration to boost GDP (moving money around) is going to backfire and bite us in the butt in the future (20 years time?).  

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3 minutes ago, msi said:

True. I'd argue running a business propped up by Benefits, or using IO bridging loans to rent out property is closer to the 'deadwood' end of the spectrum.

How far we cut back will be sentiment driven. Right now I'm happy to have it burn hard - I've spent too long being sh@t at by smug BTL'ers,  asinine PCP'ers, financial sanctimonious equity withdrawl'ers, and the self absorbed influencer/guru to give them any sympathy.  We've had time to prepare, and it will still be painful.

To quote the Matrix :

 

Harsh, but I find it hard to disagree!

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3 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Don't forget this 'recession' is government induced by a lockdown rather than a natural point we got to in 2008 where fundamentals had gone wrong.

The fundamentals were completely destroyed before Chinese Flu. We were about to have a global greatest depression anyway.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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