Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

As I said I am not sure we’ll see a HPC soon. However, I am prone to believe that cities, as we have know them, are going to decline. 
 

Just think about government and all the people around it. There’s no real need for all these people working in gov agencies to be in London. Actually, there’s no need for someone working for a council to live there neither. You can basically work for Peterborough City Council and live everywhere, work for the Treasury and live in Scotland...or Portugal...


Same for companies. Forget the London premium dear candidate, I am paying national average, you can live in the Welsh Valleys and I couldn’t care less.

So what’s the future for our cities? If I’m interpreting these big changes correctly, some city is fu***ed. All these big metropolis will decline. London is great, same as Paris or New York, however not so great anymore with an average job and a family. Middle class will escape and go somewhere they can have a better quality of life. Honestly, why I am stuck here in this flat when I could be somewhere else and enjoy the nature after work? Raise my family in a nice house near the beach?
 

Maybe these big cities will need to change skin, maybe saying “I am not moving up North because there are no good jobs” would actually mean nothing as jobs will be something you can do in the cloud? Maybe they will turn into giant Disneyland’s where you’d go for a weekend and where maybe they will ask to pay a ticket to get in? (See Venice). Maybe London will become a sort of huge Montecarlo?
 

These are actually extremely exciting  times people, the last time we have seen this scale of disruption in our societies was during the Industrial Revolution I believe. We are probably at the earliest stages of an era where people will actually choose where to live, based on what they think it’s best for them, without taking into account the job availability. Huge change of mentality here. 
 

Think about it...you have a new job, “office is in London” but you WFH 90% of the time. You’re in the position to literally take any city or town in the UK and maybe somewhere else to live. 

 

Edited by Neapolitan
Link to post
Share on other sites

That's great... But there are a finite number of jobs going around and that number is getting smaller. Removing a geographic barrier to doing a job is removing a geographic barrier to anyone applying for the same job. 

I posted the other day that my Central Scotland Based job had 4000 applicants for 8 roles. If anyone anywhere could do that job then the chances of me being the best candidate are much much lower. 

So in summary if you can live anywhere because eyou can work 100% remotely, then someone can now do your job from anywhere in the world for a fraction of your salary. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

This was predicted by Labour Party think tank Demos, maybe in the 90s.

The better off will increasingly move to desirable country locations while the "poor" will inhabit urban slums plagued by pollution and noise (I'm quoting as near as I can).

It would become increasingly expensive for the city dwellers to move to the nice countryside because others will have got there first and building will remain constricted. IMO.

Living in Portugal or similar may not be an option for a lot of people who have friends, family and cultural affinities locally.

As I don't want to live in what most people would define as countryside I'm not too bothered, towns are a lot more convenient, preferably the less undesirable large ones. IMO

Wouldn't you think cities could remain attractive to younger people?  A lass on TV lived in Bridport and hated it because nothing happens and there's nothing to do while over on Escape to the Country they'd be fighting to get in. 

Each to their own.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, regprentice said:

That's great... But there are a finite number of jobs going around and that number is getting smaller. Removing a geographic barrier to doing a job is removing a geographic barrier to anyone applying for the same job. 

I posted the other day that my Central Scotland Based job had 4000 applicants for 8 roles. If anyone anywhere could do that job then the chances of me being the best candidate are much much lower. 

So in summary if you can live anywhere because eyou can work 100% remotely, then someone can now do your job from anywhere in the world for a fraction of your salary. 

Well, I could tell you that the recruiting process will chance of course. But the job hunting process will change too, right now, let’s say you’re an accountant, all the accounting jobs in the UK are there for you, and you don’t even need to worry about moving. This will have a huge impact on both internal and external immigration channels. As I said, there are no jobs here, so I am moving, could be a meaningless sentence in a few years.
 

I think protecting the job market will become a hot topic now. Maybe putting barriers to the amount of work done somewhere else than the market you sell your products? Interesting topic. 
 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

This was predicted by Labour Party think tank Demos, maybe in the 90s.

The better off will increasingly move to desirable country locations while the "poor" will inhabit urban slums plagued by pollution and noise (I'm quoting as near as I can).

It would become increasingly expensive for the city dwellers to move to the nice countryside because others will have got there first and building will remain constricted. IMO.

Living in Portugal or similar may not be an option for a lot of people who have friends, family and cultural affinities locally.

As I don't want to live in what most people would define as countryside I'm not too bothered, towns are a lot more convenient, preferably the less undesirable large ones. IMO

Wouldn't you think cities could remain attractive to younger people?  A lass on TV lived in Bridport and hated it because nothing happens and there's nothing to do while over on Escape to the Country they'd be fighting to get in. 

Each to their own.

 

You got my point. Talking about Portugal you didn’t mention the word jobs. As soon as you remove that word from the equation a new world appears. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Truth is that - by and large - to join a business,  induct laterals, mentor juniors, impress seniors, develop client relationships, have meaningful conversations and relationships with fellow owners/partners etc., you're always going to need to have a focal point for those interactions, and that's always going to require an office in a big city.

Is it possible to do some of that away from the office some of the time? Sure. All of it all of the time? No.

What will I think happen is that there will be more working from home, which will result in people taking the hit on a longer commute, say, 3 times a week, in return for having a nice place to work from Thursday/Friday when they work from home. How far out they can go is the question.

Even if, for example, you're doing only 3 days a week in the office, that's still a shitload of commuting if you're 1hr/1hr 15mins away (as your all-in commute is going to be around 1.5hrs). That might push people to the St Albans / Tonbridge's of the world, but any further gets really quite tricky, unless you decide to live much further out (say 1.5hrs) get a flat in London, stay over a couple of nights a week, and work from home the rest.

In short, working from home will be nice, but I'm not sure - given how much people will still need to work from the office - it will completely transform where people live. Plus, of course, cities have incredible cuisine, theatre, palaces, dinosaur bones, ballet, bouncy places and all sorts of other stuff that you don't get elsewhere which is kinda cool, like.

Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Removing a geographic barrier to doing a job is removing a geographic barrier to anyone applying for the same job. 

Businesses have tried doing this via outsourcing.  It worked out so well, that re-shoring is now a thing (!!).  I'm not advocating a return to the "9x5 office",.... but there has to be some kind of middle ground in order to extract and achieve the best outcome for both sides. 

Having said this, they'll certainly be some functions that IMHO should have been digitised + outsourced donkeys ago.

True creativity, team culture and problem solving is difficult to achieve in a fully remote model.  Few get this right.

Edited by blackhole
Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Businesses have tried doing this via outsourcing.  It worked out so well, that re-shoring is now a thing (!!).  I'm not advocating a return to the "9x5 office",.... but there has to be some kind of middle ground in order to extract and achieve the best outcome for both sides.

I have to say I'm not aware of any re-shoring in my industry (finance/banking). A friend of mine works in HSBC tax division and they've just offshore from Edinburgh to SriLanka, apparently its cheaper than India, more pleasant - especially the beaches, and anecdotally Americans find the SriLanka accent less grating than the Indian accent. I think there is a long list of countries behind India wanting to be even cheaper and set up as off shoring centres. 

Generally speaking, when a business gets to the stage that it is off shoring then the managment only care about money anyway. I don't see those businesses having an attack of conscience and suddenly re-shoring people, even if they have catastrophic failures as a result. Ive worked through one those, a 14 day outage at a major bank, managment couldn't care less 

42 minutes ago, AndrewMansell said:

... 

Is it possible to do some of that away from the office some of the time? Sure. All of it all of the time? No.... 

I'd agree with all of this. 20% of the people on my current project have never been in the office or met anyone else face 2 face and they are lost, not quite sure how to get started, an even after 2 months some are still making out like its their first day so they don't look like they don't know what they are doing. 

My employers seen productivity halve during lockdown. They've been great in that they are telling staff to prioritise their families wellbeing over their work.... But there's a recognition that when this is over we'll mainly be back to the office with a little home working for flexibility. 

Edited by regprentice
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

You can basically work for Peterborough City Council and live everywhere, work for the Treasury and live in Scotland...or Portugal...


Same for companies. Forget the London premium dear candidate, I am paying national average, you can live in the Welsh Valleys and I couldn’t care less.

So what’s the future for our cities? If I’m interpreting these big changes correctly, some city is fu***ed. All these big metropolis will decline. London is great, same as Paris or New York, however not so great anymore with an average job and a family.

What is your experience? 

I can see how working from home suits some people, but for many it has a lot of disadvantages.

If you have a family they will be a distraction that you don't have in the office.

if you don't have a separate room for the office this may be especially difficult.

If you live alone and especially if you live in a remote area you are likely to miss the interactions that happen in an office and find it harder to socialise after work. Young people will probably be particularly keen to work in an office to avoid being at home all day (especially bad if in a house-share or living with parents).

People are still going to want to live in cities. People with an average job and a family already didn't want to live in Londond and they already didn't.

I think the reason people are talking about house prices falling in cities is because they are too scared to admit to themselves that prices might fall in aggregate. 

Working from home the majority of the time for the majority of people is a stretch. Private employers which have resisted the move to allowing WFH a few days a week will shift, but I doubt there will be very much change beyond that.

I doubt the government will change. They tried Parliament from home. It worked well. They decided they didn't like it. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally, I feel like working from home will be more a thing. But you need to be able to on your work premises on a short notice. I also increased my search area for buying a house thanks to Covid.

I hope I will be able to work from home every other week instead of half the week. It will make a big source of savings on my transportation costs. 

The main issue I feel will be for trainees. You need to have your tutor/superviser at hand when you are learning the job. Learning the job remotely will be a nightmare. Also harder to switch off the uni party mindset when one will start.

I can see London losing population in the coming 2 years. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't quite see a situation where people work from home 5 days a week....yet!

 

I imagine in the mid term country side that is a doable (but long) commute from a city will be a good option.

 

Can't really predict what is going to happen in the long term.  But I do think all that 1990s/2000s "city centre living" is going to go into reverse in a big way.

 

Especially if we start having more protests and crime in city centres.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

What is your experience? 

I can see how working from home suits some people, but for many it has a lot of disadvantages.

If you have a family they will be a distraction that you don't have in the office.

if you don't have a separate room for the office this may be especially difficult.

If you live alone and especially if you live in a remote area you are likely to miss the interactions that happen in an office and find it harder to socialise after work. Young people will probably be particularly keen to work in an office to avoid being at home all day (especially bad if in a house-share or living with parents).

People are still going to want to live in cities. People with an average job and a family already didn't want to live in Londond and they already didn't.

I think the reason people are talking about house prices falling in cities is because they are too scared to admit to themselves that prices might fall in aggregate. 

Working from home the majority of the time for the majority of people is a stretch. Private employers which have resisted the move to allowing WFH a few days a week will shift, but I doubt there will be very much change beyond that.

I doubt the government will change. They tried Parliament from home. It worked well. They decided they didn't like it. 

No Kids here, so probably my bias is different. Living in a flat so yeah, not a nice experience. But if you have a nice house, well, different story. 
 

On the job training? We’ll see. Companies will now start welcoming interns and fresh graduates. Everything will be done remotely. Interns at my company moved back home and are quite happy with the money left in their pocket. Same money 1 year ago would have gone into a landlords bank account...
 

Anyway, I fell that companies won’t miss this chance to brutally cut costs. I’ve heard about companies due to move pre-virus and already leasing space for 3/4 of the workforce with 2 days per week WFH. 

Edited by Neapolitan
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, regprentice said:

Generally speaking, when a business gets to the stage that it is off shoring then the managment only care about money anyway. I don't see those businesses having an attack of conscience and suddenly re-shoring people, even if they have catastrophic failures as a result. Ive worked through one those, a 14 day outage at a major bank, managment couldn't care less 

 

Banking is the exception than the norm in this case - I even saw HSBC attempt to reshore originations only to kick out the then CTO and offshore it to India again.

Outside of banking I've now seen it happen in multiple verticals.  Outsourcing quality varies so much, and requires often just as much nurturing as your own internal team to get the best results.  At which point, why not just bring it back again.... which is what ends up happening.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Freki said:

The main issue I feel will be for trainees. You need to have your tutor/superviser at hand when you are learning the job. Learning the job remotely will be a nightmare. Also harder to switch off the uni party mindset when one will start.

Precisely what I've seen in fully remote teams.  Juniors struggle to grow.  There's a middle ground alright.... and it doesnt involve commuting straight back to the London HQ either (!).

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Precisely what I've seen in fully remote teams.  Juniors struggle to grow.  There's a middle ground alright.... and it doesnt involve commuting straight back to the London HQ either (!).

Would you also extend that to new team members that are experienced?

 

A friend told me with lockdown that it was quite hard to "connect" with people he had never met face to face.  

 

Also if you are in a complex environment, no matter how experienced you are, you need more than being told to read a load of badly written documents!

Edited by reddog
Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, reddog said:

Would you also extend that to new team members that are experienced?

 

A friend told me with lockdown that it was quite hard to "connect" with people he had never met face to face.  

 

Absolutely.  Blocked out many hours during first week to ensure they had actual f2f time, even if it meant webcams on for hours.  Tacit knowledge cannot be easily "documented" up, so its better to be forthcoming and open to questions.

Also arranged regular face to face meetings just for that purpose; a bit of team bonding goes a long way. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting topic. 

I'm maybe a bit ahead of the curve on this (assuming you're right); older millennial but moved back to my home town after a stint abroad in my early 20s and now live in an even smaller place. Very low cost of living, bought a big house for comparatively little, work at home two days or so a week but accept some large commutes as a trade off (No regrets) - my office is 50+ miles away but my salary is more than double what I would earn around here for the same job and more than treble the median salary here. 

If the firm switches to default video calls instead of face to face with office time shifting to more like once or twice a week I will shift to a London office job. I'm already on home working t's and cs so pay no travel costs and imagine I'll be able to land somewhere in the middle on the salary to compensate. 

All the technical/central jobs (ie the ones where you don't have to deal with clients and ludicrous deadlines) ate London based so it'll be more money for less hassle. I'm close to a hub station so I can be in central London in 2.5hrs door to door. Will take that commute once or twice a week for the money and job change. 

Bring it on!

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, blackhole said:
 

Banking is the exception than the norm in this case - I even saw HSBC attempt to reshore originations only to kick out the then CTO and offshore it to India again.

Outside of banking I've now seen it happen in multiple verticals.  Outsourcing quality varies so much, and requires often just as much nurturing as your own internal team to get the best results.  At which point, why not just bring it back again.... which is what ends up happening.

I've never seen outsourcing work in the long run. The temptation is always there to under deliver. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Interesting topic. 

I'm maybe a bit ahead of the curve on this (assuming you're right); older millennial but moved back to my home town after a stint abroad in my early 20s and now live in an even smaller place. Very low cost of living, bought a big house for comparatively little, work at home two days or so a week but accept some large commutes as a trade off (No regrets) - my office is 50+ miles away but my salary is more than double what I would earn around here for the same job and more than treble the median salary here. 

If the firm switches to default video calls instead of face to face with office time shifting to more like once or twice a week I will shift to a London office job. I'm already on home working t's and cs so pay no travel costs and imagine I'll be able to land somewhere in the middle on the salary to compensate. 

All the technical/central jobs (ie the ones where you don't have to deal with clients and ludicrous deadlines) ate London based so it'll be more money for less hassle. I'm close to a hub station so I can be in central London in 2.5hrs door to door. Will take that commute once or twice a week for the money and job change. 

Bring it on!

As a Londoner I think it will be great - big fan of the North West worked there late 80’s - the country was so much more balanced then 

Last 25 years have seen a complete imbalance develop 

London was a shrinking city till the mid 80’s time it became one again for a while 

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is an interesting question. However, it is important to remember that few people in Britain actually live in the countryside today, including those who dont live in cities. They live in suburbs, a victorian creation, residential areas with transport links to places of work. If there is no longer a need to travel in to work will we have a need for suburbs? Or will we just have huge new build estates in the outer hebrides? 

One thing that cities do offer is creative energy and ideas.  Punk didnt come out of Buckinghamshire and the Beatles didnt come from Altringham. Can collective creativity be generated online, or do you need restless, ambitious people all in the same place? 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you are under 40, and don’t have kids, I suspect the idea of living in the middle of the country or in some village full of curtain twitching grannies does not appeal that much. Me, I am currently renting in the middle of the country and loving it, but i have lived most of adult life in cities, and loved it...culture etc. This whole moving to the country thing is a brief fad for most, and once the theatres and restaurants are open again, it will be forgotten...unless the left continue their idiotic rampage, and the police stand by or run away.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

If you are under 40, and don’t have kids, I suspect the idea of living in the middle of the country or in some village full of curtain twitching grannies does not appeal that much. Me, I am currently renting in the middle of the country and loving it, but i have lived most of adult life in cities, and loved it...culture etc. This whole moving to the country thing is a brief fad for most, and once the theatres and restaurants are open again, it will be forgotten...unless the left continue their idiotic rampage, and the police stand by or run away.

Companies will decide where this will go. As I said earlier, firms might start offering contracts without the “city premium” attached to the salary. If you can WFH and trust me good firms are realizing that more than half of what they used to do in an office could be done from home there so need to offer you a London salary. 
 

let’s suppose than only 10% of current office jobs will permanently move WFH after corona. I suspect this could be a huge hit to big cities’ commercial and office space offering. Entire buildings left empty. And of course the houses. If 5% of current Londoners can WFH somewhere else and they decide to move, this is a almost half a million population drop. Probably not 1/2 million houses left empty, but a 6 figures number could not be too far from reality.  
 

Do not think that the majority of people living in cities are young singles looking for fun every night. There are millions of families as well, and for them London Paris etc is a completely different experience. 

Edited by Neapolitan
Link to post
Share on other sites

Will cities be a place for having families and bringing up children?......who will be living/staying in city areas in the future?......will they only be places to pass through, stop over in for a day or two to get certain business done? meet a friend? Visit a museum or see a show.......will people share a bolt hole residence, rent a spare room as and when necessary....to live a life mainly in another place, with more space anywhere else.....thousands of bedrooms have now turned into offices..... anything can be delivered anywhere any time. Covid19 has proven and shown that people can live a life without having to leave home for weeks.?

Link to post
Share on other sites

If everyone wants to leave London, then they won’t be able to sell their tiny flats for 600k, and they won’t be able to buy in the country (I live in the country and a decent home with a bit of land costs well north of 800k). London drives the UK property market, and the ability of Londoners to buy houses outside London due to their extra equity, drives up prices elsewhere. I can see London prices dropping 50%, and if that happens then everywhere else will drop 20-30% at least. A summer of riots is coming, and this may well finish off the London market, but this won’t cause a rise in house prices outside of London.

Edited by HovelinHove
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.