zugzwang Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, warpig said: Whilst I fully appreciate these are only the known cases, but based on the figures below - try and work out how long it will take at current infection rates to reach 70%... There will be several waves until we realise that we just need to accept 70% of the population need to get it... to reach herd immunity and the sooner we do so, the better the economic outcome. The vast majority of the population will be deal with the virus and be fine. These figures are from the end of April. Herd immunity is a murderous folly. The science of beating Covid-19 is here: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/ There's no need for a complex model or a vaccine. Complete eradication is possible within a month (see Vietnam). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 The population is being sacrificed by a prat for the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 The poor will spoil it for the rich, by not buying into their dream that you are nothing until you have tried this done that or bought that to impress others with the crap they try to sell to impress......buying it will make things better, others will love you more, when they will love you less and make things worse for you.....always trying to keep up......very expensive.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 52 minutes ago, winkie said: The poor will spoil it for the rich, by not buying into their dream that you are nothing until you have tried this done that or bought that to impress others with the crap they try to sell to impress......buying it will make things better, others will love you more, when they will love you less and make things worse for you.....always trying to keep up......very expensive.? 100% agree. Millions will stop consuming rubbish as a result of this pandemic debacle. People are waking up to the fact that owning made in China tat doesn't put food on the table or pay the rent/mortgage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 52 minutes ago, winkie said: The poor will spoil it for the rich, by not buying into their dream that you are nothing until you have tried this done that or bought that to impress others with the crap they try to sell to impress......buying it will make things better, others will love you more, when they will love you less and make things worse for you.....always trying to keep up......very expensive.? Exactly. The cult of consumerism has been shown up. People can be OK without having to spend and the elite are exposed. They are desperate for us to get back - all in the name of their freedom to farm us. The question is the Genie now out of the bottle? Will there really be a need for all the tat of modern life - PCP cars, record mortgages, multi fashion seasons etc. Will the elites try to get us back (expect a quick bounce on shares) or use the central bank money to move into Assets and let the economy burn (dead cat market bounce and then kaboom!). I've used the analogy to the Titanic and it still stands. We've struck the iceberg and the initial shock is wearing off. We are all looking at each other deciding whether to party on or go for some fresh air near the lifeboats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, zugzwang said: Herd immunity is a murderous folly. The science of beating Covid-19 is here: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/ There's no need for a complex model or a vaccine. Complete eradication is possible within a month (see Vietnam). The irony is that - apparently - they didn't want to go into lockdown too early because they were worried the public would grow tired of it. The reality is that if they had gone into lockdown a week earlier, then we could well be out of it by now with much less total time spent in lockdown, and with far fewer (some estimates 75% fewer) deaths. We've ended up with the worst of all possible outcomes, with a sustained lockdown and accompanying economic effects, a much higher death rate than most other countries and, to cap it all, we still have the freaking virus. Could they have done a worse job? The idea that the public wasn't ready to go into lockdown earlier is farcical - half the country was screaming for it at least a week before they did it. Edited June 9, 2020 by mattyboy1973 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said: The irony is that - apparently - they didn't want to go into lockdown too early because they were worried the public would grow tired of it. The reality is that if they had gone into lockdown a week earlier, then we could well be out of it by now with much less total time spent in lockdown, and with far fewer (some estimates 75% fewer) deaths. We've ended up with the worst of all possible outcomes, with a sustained lockdown and accompanying economic effects, a much higher death rate than most other countries and, to cap it all, we still have the freaking virus. Could they have done a worse job? The idea that the public wasn't ready to go into lockdown earlier is farcical - half the country was screaming for it at least a week before they did it. They only had to look at Italy …………………... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Patfig said: They only had to look at Italy …………………... Why follow a European country...we are sooo much better than them, innit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 hours ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said: The population is being sacrificed by a prat for the economy. You've got that **** about face... The economy is being sacrificed for a tiny part of the population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluestone59 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 hour ago, winkie said: The poor will spoil it for the rich, by not buying into their dream that you are nothing until you have tried this done that or bought that to impress others with the crap they try to sell to impress......buying it will make things better, others will love you more, when they will love you less and make things worse for you.....always trying to keep up......very expensive.? 25 minutes ago, msi said: Exactly. The cult of consumerism has been shown up. People can be OK without having to spend and the elite are exposed. They are desperate for us to get back - all in the name of their freedom to farm us. The question is the Genie now out of the bottle? Will there really be a need for all the tat of modern life - PCP cars, record mortgages, multi fashion seasons etc. Will the elites try to get us back (expect a quick bounce on shares) or use the central bank money to move into Assets and let the economy burn (dead cat market bounce and then kaboom!). I've used the analogy to the Titanic and it still stands. We've struck the iceberg and the initial shock is wearing off. We are all looking at each other deciding whether to party on or go for some fresh air near the lifeboats? An opinion poll, source I can't recall so possibly dubious, a couple of months ago found that 9% of the population hoped that things would go back to how they were before the virus. Although I thought it was always supposed to be 1% I took this 9% to be the people who are screwing the rest of us and they know it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 hours ago, zugzwang said: Herd immunity is a murderous folly. The science of beating Covid-19 is here: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/ There's no need for a complex model or a vaccine. Complete eradication is possible within a month (see Vietnam). Sorry I don't agree with that... Correlation is not causation. You can't compare international travel hubs with backwater destinations and assume it's because the way the governments handled Covid19. International footfall cannot be ignored... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, warpig said: The economy is being sacrificed for a tiny part of the population. The truth is that we still don't know enough about the long term effects of this virus to just let it run rampant through the population. We could be settings ourselves up for something absolutely horrific a few years down the track if there turn out to be long term health consequences. Chances are, probably not, but the precautionary principle must apply until we know for sure. The simple truth is that they actually could have done a far better job than they did, and we could have both the economy back and the health of the population protected. I have no idea how we get there from here though. The fact that Serco are running the track and trace does not bode well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 minute ago, mattyboy1973 said: The truth is that we still don't know enough about the long term effects of this virus to just let it run rampant through the population. We could be settings ourselves up for something absolutely horrific a few years down the track if there turn out to be long term health consequences. Chances are, probably not, but the precautionary principle must apply until we know for sure. The simple truth is that they actually could have done a far better job than they did, and we could have both the economy back and the health of the population protected. I have no idea how we get there from here though. The fact that Serco are running the track and trace does not bode well. The problem is political decisions are being driven by health "experts" who have no understanding of how important economic prosperity is.... they are utterly clueless and they're blackmailing politicians. We can't afford to have a scientific study, wait for the results and then make a decision... look at the unemployment, look at companies going to the wall, look at the national debt, look at cancer patients going without crucial treatment, look at children missing out on a whole year of school... jesus christ this has gone too far... 70% of the population have to get this and some will die, time to face facts. The sooner 70% of us get it the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, warpig said: The problem is political decisions are being driven by health "experts" who have no understanding of how important economic prosperity is.... they are utterly clueless and they're blackmailing politicians. We can't afford to have a scientific study, wait for the results and then make a decision... look at the unemployment, look at companies going to the wall, look at the national debt, look at cancer patients going without crucial treatment, look at children missing out on a whole year of school... jesus christ this has gone too far... 70% of the population have to get this and some will die, time to face facts. The sooner 70% of us get it the better. After you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, warpig said: 70% of the population have to get this and some will die, time to face facts. The sooner 70% of us get it the better. It's not quite that simple. There isn't a switch you can flick which is going to turn our economy back on, especially sectors like hospitality/tourism, which are probably the worst affected. Social distancing guidelines or not, people aren't going to come out if they are scared of getting ill, and for a significant (and monied) portion of our society, that fear is very well founded. The knock on effects throughout the economy are going to be significant, regardless of what policies are enacted now. Anyway, it looks to me like the government is broadly going with your approach so we will get to see how it pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, Patfig said: After you I'm cool with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 (edited) Life is not risk free... we need to try and find normal again... Never in the field of economics has so much been owed to so many by so few Edited June 9, 2020 by warpig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, warpig said: Sorry I don't agree with that... Correlation is not causation. You can't compare international travel hubs with backwater destinations and assume it's because the way the governments handled Covid19. International footfall cannot be ignored... Wuhan is an international travel hub. Seoul is an international travel hub. Hong Kong is an international travel hub. Each of those countries undertook prompt and aggressive intervention to suppress transmission rates and then made extensive use of TTI to build a high-resolution real-time map of the virus' spread. Treating the disease like SARS and not seasonal flu. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 hours ago, winkie said: The poor will spoil it for the rich, by not buying into their dream that you are nothing until you have tried this done that or bought that to impress others with the crap they try to sell to impress......buying it will make things better, others will love you more, when they will love you less and make things worse for you.....always trying to keep up......very expensive.? i don`t buy that (excuse the pun). If the plebs stop buying sweatshop tat it will be because they don`t have the financial means to do it anymore a big portion of consumerist behavior is down to failings in other areas of their life, can`t buy a house well lets buy a car instead to make up for it on finance, cant`t buy a car well lets buy a cheap thrills motorbike and so on. Still a lot or bored kept house wives out there filling their wardrobe up with shoes and plastic clothes. give it a year and it will go back to a new mobile every 6 months and all the other trappings that debt slaves take part in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxxx Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, longgone said: i don`t buy that (excuse the pun). If the plebs stop buying sweatshop tat it will be because they don`t have the financial means to do it anymore a big portion of consumerist behavior is down to failings in other areas of their life, can`t buy a house well lets buy a car instead to make up for it on finance, cant`t buy a car well lets buy a cheap thrills motorbike and so on. Still a lot or bored kept house wives out there filling their wardrobe up with shoes and plastic clothes. give it a year and it will go back to a new mobile every 6 months and all the other trappings that debt slaves take part in. I really agree with this. Would never want to be a debt slave, would rather have freedom. Can’t afford it, don’t buy it. Happiness comes from within, not a huge house, new car, phone etc. Enjoy rummaging in charity shops for bargains and finding £100 dress for £5. That is a good feeling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Wuhan is an international travel hub. Seoul is an international travel hub. Hong Kong is an international travel hub. Each of those countries undertook prompt and aggressive intervention to suppress transmission rates and then made extensive use of TTI to build a high-resolution real-time map of the virus' spread. Treating the disease like SARS and not seasonal flu. That's fair enough... but has it changed the inevitable outcome or has it just slowed it down? If it hasn't irradiated it, then they still have to reach a certain infection rate before it stops spreading. If I'm missing something pull me up on it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 minute ago, warpig said: That's fair enough... but has it changed the inevitable outcome or has it just slowed it down? If it hasn't irradiated it, then they still have to reach a certain infection rate before it stops spreading. If I'm missing something pull me up on it... I think the end game for the countries that have got rid of it is to hope that a vaccine is ready within a few months. There was some talk of September, although that seems a little optimistic. Otherwise I would agree with you, that we are all going to get it so get on with it. Therapies are also being improved at a rapid rate, so really the longer you can wait until you get it the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 minute ago, mattyboy1973 said: I think the end game for the countries that have got rid of it is to hope that a vaccine is ready within a few months. There was some talk of September, although that seems a little optimistic. Otherwise I would agree with you, that we are all going to get it so get on with it. Therapies are also being improved at a rapid rate, so really the longer you can wait until you get it the better. Which country has got rid of it? if indeed there is one... are they going to keep tourists out until the world is clear...? There won't be a vaccine for years and it has already mutated... IMO the only "realistic" approach is for the healthy population to get it and so it doesn't spread to the vulnerable. I worked out at current contagion rates based on "reported" figures, it will take 111 years us to reach 70% herd immunity. How many waves do you think that is? Won't we all have starved and died of cancer by then? What the world is doing to the world economies is insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, warpig said: That's fair enough... but has it changed the inevitable outcome or has it just slowed it down? If it hasn't irradiated it, then they still have to reach a certain infection rate before it stops spreading. If I'm missing something pull me up on it... 49 countries have essentially eliminated C-19 (daily infection rates in single figures, or zero). Another 35 are now <100 and v. close to seeing it off. Some, like Singapore and Iran opened up too early and have gone backwards with ugly second waves. The US and Brazil are probably doomed to herd immunity. The UK infection rate came down 9% today but it's still over 1000 nationally. Progress but no grounds for complacency. Another two/three weeks should be enough for the win, if we're careful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, zugzwang said: 49 countries have essentially eliminated C-19 (daily infection rates in single figures, or zero). Another 35 are now <100 and v. close to seeing it off. Some, like Singapore and Iran opened up too early and have gone backwards with ugly second waves. The US and Brazil are probably doomed to herd immunity. The UK infection rate came down 9% today but it's still over 1000 nationally. Progress but no grounds for complacency. Another two/three weeks should be enough for the win, if we're careful. That's interesting, but it still leaves 111 countries with a significant infection rate and it won't take much to set this off again IMO. The protests in London are certain to upset the apple cart in terms of the infection rate and I've heard a few friends say, their children's schools have closed again due to reinfection... For the vast majority this is just the flu, but the cost to everyone's lives over the next decade is going to be extreme... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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