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I am starting to think the rest of the year is written off.

If / when a second wave of corona virus hits I think the implications are going to be very scary indeed.

 

Lockdown part II

Job losses enormous

Schools not returning until 2021

Hospitality industry kaput

House repossessions spiralling

Throw Brexit into the mix and we may see food shortages too

 

Maybe we have reached a true tin foil hat moment

 

House prices......….........… no one will care anymore

 

What does anyone else think?

 

 

 

 

 

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You could be right. If this virus follows any sort of seasonality, like the flu and the common cold, then perhaps we can expect it to come back strong at the beginning of winter? If so, that poses a few real issues. Firstly, of course, hospitals are at their busiest during winter. They are far less busy now, so could, by all accounts, handle something of an upsurge in Covid if they had to. Another issue is that colds and the flu will make their annual reappearance. Not something I have heard talked about much by anyone, but it strikes me that once you have several million of us coming down with the common cold or flu, it is going to make any sort of symptom checking/contract tracing that much more difficult. We are all going to think we have Covid when we get our next cold (well, I am), so then what? Take two weeks off/self isolate for every common cold over the winter?

Edited by mattyboy1973
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I'm guessing a 5-10% chance of a winter perfect storm (all of the above + flu / norovirus).  BoJo and Cumming could escape and let Gove et all take the flak.  How he survives is dependent on who is blamed for Wave 2 (BLM or the Beach/Cummings BBQ'ers).

If I were in Tory HQ, I'd aim for a massive crash, currency crisis, IR's, the lot.  Blame it on Covid 'messing up our chance at a good brexit'. Default on at least 30% National Debt and apply a wealth tax and Land Tax. 

Then take credit for the post recovery showing how Labour failed to give any real alternative.

 

What am I thinking?  If I were in Tory HQ, I'd take a flamethrower to the lot of em :)

 

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1 minute ago, btl_hater said:

Their only option to avoid job losses (which I don’t really care about) is to take the Swedish approach and keep everything open.

They will try but in a population this dense (unlike Sweden) the NHS will be over run in fairly short order.

 

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1 minute ago, Roman Roady said:

They will try but in a population this dense (unlike Sweden) the NHS will be over run in fairly short order.

 

Without knowing more about the long term effects amongst the "less affected" infected, this plan is lunacy. It's probably lunacy anyway, since we already know that something like 20% of over 80s die from it.

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One thing to ponder is that the first wave was global...we were all in the same boat and thus the economic consequences will be felt the world over. However the 2nd wave will take place in individual areas/countries...this will mean that those areas will suffer additional hardship on their own.

Such a country will see its standard of living drop in relation to others.

Sick man of Europe AGAIN????

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1 minute ago, Roman Roady said:

One thing to ponder is that the first wave was global...we were all in the same boat and thus the economic consequences will be felt the world over. However the 2nd wave will take place in individual areas/countries...this will mean that those areas will suffer additional hardship on their own.

Such a country will see its standard of living drop in relation to others.

Sick man of Europe AGAIN????

Good job we aren’t scheduled to commit a great act of economic self harm in the new year! ?

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5 minutes ago, btl_hater said:

Good job we aren’t scheduled to commit a great act of economic self harm in the new year! ?

yup just when we will probably need to be part of a bigger entity...a perfect storm coming.

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37 minutes ago, Patfig said:

I am starting to think the rest of the year is written off.

If / when a second wave of corona virus hits I think the implications are going to be very scary indeed.

 

Lockdown part II

Job losses enormous

Schools not returning until 2021

Hospitality industry kaput

House repossessions spiralling

Throw Brexit into the mix and we may see food shortages too

 

Maybe we have reached a true tin foil hat moment

 

House prices......….........… no one will care anymore

 

What does anyone else think?

 

 

 

 

 

Stock market collapse. 

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22 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

One thing to ponder is that the first wave was global...we were all in the same boat and thus the economic consequences will be felt the world over. However the 2nd wave will take place in individual areas/countries...this will mean that those areas will suffer additional hardship on their own.

Such a country will see its standard of living drop in relation to others.

Sick man of Europe AGAIN????

Scotland's deaths are at 0.  We need to follow their lead...get totally pissed every day and eat fried stuff.

 

Here's what a pizza looks like in Glasgow. Not ever a virus will go near it

 

Deep Fried Pizza Glasgow Scotland Stock Photo: 40212342 - Alamy

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Future implications will depend on our choices today. Unfortunately, western countries have totally unprepared governments, unable to plan and to clearly speak the truth. They do not do it because Corona is now another filed where this gangs-wars is being fight. Usually the US would lead, but they’re 100% on Election Day propaganda now. 
If they have allowed mass protest, my small and not too smart mind tells me that, maybe, this virus follows the seasons, and that they are reasonably sure about this. My 2 cents here is that a sensible government would tell the plebes that there is some chances we might have a second lockdown, and that some planning is required. 
However, there is nothing  in sight, so yeah, a second hard lockdown will put all of us on our knees when several thousands cannot breath in hospitals. 

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18 hours ago, Patfig said:

If / when a second wave of corona virus hits I think the implications are going to be very scary indeed.

After watching the global protests wave 2 hit about a week ago with the consequences coming at the end of June. Give it a few weeks and it'll feel like March again, but the lockdown might have saved it somewhat.

I hope no one's holding equities in a month or so (I'll caveat that by saying it's not advice, I don't know the future etc). I only have 1.5 years supply of toilet paper too, better double that just in case, as well as add to my bag of sovs.

You can never be too careful

Edited by Huggy
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1 hour ago, Patfig said:

I am starting to think the rest of the year is written off.

If / when a second wave of corona virus hits I think the implications are going to be very scary indeed.

 

Lockdown part II

Job losses enormous

Schools not returning until 2021

Hospitality industry kaput

House repossessions spiralling

Throw Brexit into the mix and we may see food shortages too

 

Maybe we have reached a true tin foil hat moment

 

House prices......….........… no one will care anymore

 

What does anyone else think?

 

 

 

 

 

And they can blame it on the demonstrators getting in a fuss about slave traders. 

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1 hour ago, Patfig said:

I am starting to think the rest of the year is written off.

If / when a second wave of corona virus hits I think the implications are going to be very scary indeed.

 

Lockdown part II

Job losses enormous

Schools not returning until 2021

Hospitality industry kaput

House repossessions spiralling

Throw Brexit into the mix and we may see food shortages too

 

Maybe we have reached a true tin foil hat moment

 

House prices......….........… no one will care anymore

 

What does anyone else think?

 

 

 

 

 

Like most forums this forum has more than its fair share of doom merchants bit like doing an employee survey.

Businesses are gearing up safely to go back to work - the new way of working will be the norm until the waves settle down. My clients started working from home two - three weeks prior to any gov edict and the same is happening in reverse.

Certain industries will be hit hard but no harder than a mining or steel village losing its mine or plant.

The fear factor is overdone. 

We won't have food shortages - we are pretty self sufficient in basics and that is  with the fatties over eating

The problem is anyone sub 50 and not working class has never seen much economic hardship. compared to the 70's and 80's so its all S*** yourself time.

The working class are demonised as chavs, Essex boys and girls,  but the truth is they know how to survive, the question is do the middle class ? Thats behind a lot of the fear stuff

What worries them most is this quote from Josephine Hart ' Damaged people are dangerous they know how to survive'

The question is do you ?

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We will find out soon.

Back when the lockdown was rolled out London was raging.

IMHO having seen loads of politicians and London folk get infected... London has a stab at heard immunity if it exists.

Commuters and high contact hosts have possibly already been infected in the capital.

With the protests and partial opening we cannot be far off a second wave if it's going to hit in London.

If it does not you may have more of a slow wave as the virus works it's way around places like Norwich which missed out the first wave mostly and locked down before it hit.

Unless things get crazy lockdown won't come back unless local lockdown.

London once up and running won't shut down it's younger working population for North Norfolk care homes for example.

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais
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9 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

The problem is anyone sub 50 and not working class has never seen much economic hardship. compared to the 70's and 80's so its all S*** yourself time.

The working class are demonised as chavs, Essex boys and girls,  but the truth is they know how to survive, the question is do the middle class ? Thats behind a lot of the fear stuff

I think there has been a bit of a realisation amongst some of the middle class that there isn't really an effective safety net for them. The shift from two earners and £100k+ joint income to universal credit is a dramatic one - its pretty dramatic with just one earner on 50k come to that. There are so many outgoings now for your typical middle class family that UC isn't going to touch the sides. The mortgage, of course, which will be covered IO as a loan now (not a nice prospect for many), bills on family homes which clock in at at least several hundred a month (more if you include council tax), plus the inevitable PCP car payments, CC debt, loans for whatever else, private school etc. Losing your job if you are working class and in a rental, the transition to UC might just about be bearable short term. If you are one of the squeezed (or over extended) middle class I think you are in trouble, with credit problems down the track (more expensive SVR mortgage in your future), loss of all spending money and an uphill task to get another job in this climate.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Scotland's deaths are at 0.  We need to follow their lead...get totally pissed every day and eat fried stuff.

 

Here's what a pizza looks like in Glasgow. Not ever a virus will go near it

 

Deep Fried Pizza Glasgow Scotland Stock Photo: 40212342 - Alamy

 

If it helps any, I once found deep fried Mars bars on sale in Chichester, sadly I don't know if still available as I didn't want to eat one.

I had been told they were a myth and that was by a Scot.

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1 minute ago, mattyboy1973 said:

I think there has been a bit of a realisation amongst some of the middle class that there isn't really an effective safety net for them. The shift from two earners and £100k+ joint income to universal credit is a dramatic one - its pretty dramatic with just one earner on 50k come to that. There are so many outgoings now for your typical middle class family that UC isn't going to touch the sides. The mortgage, of course, which will be covered IO as a loan now (not a nice prospect for many), bills on family homes which clock in at at least several hundred a month (more if you include council tax), plus the inevitable PCP car payments, CC debt, loans for whatever else, private school etc. Losing your job if you are working class and in a rental, the transition to UC might just about be bearable short term. If you are one of the squeezed (or over extended) middle class I think you are in trouble, with credit problems down the track (more expensive SVR mortgage in your future), loss of all spending money and an uphill task to get another job in this climate.

?

The middle class are like crack whores addicted to meths, the consumption high is too great to let go. I can see Mr and Mrs perfect tootling down to the jobcentre for a reality check to what is important.  hopefully they can think outside the box of earn wage spend wage to keep going. 

fun times

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16 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

If it helps any, I once found deep fried Mars bars on sale in Chichester, sadly I don't know if still available as I didn't want to eat one.

I had been told they were a myth and that was by a Scot.

They aren't a myth I have seen them in Stonehaven in Scotland along with deep fried crème eggs

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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