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"Christ" will the save the summer six prevent the Jobopocalypse?


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As mentioned on this forum if the hospitality sector dos not open by July millions are going to loose their jobs.

3.5 million people apparently and thus a schism is opening in government. 

Logically R rate rising = no opening given previous statements.

I dont think many folk are going to take granny/grandad out for a large family Christmas dinner this year so if the summer is lost then that + furlough ending result in.  A mothball and open when you can be sure of it and rules are less costly (next year?) or B throw in the towel (especially if leased premises).

As a business owner i find myself watching the protests and thinking whats the chances that I am going to have to let all my staff go because unless the virus has burned out this surely has to raise the R value?

Or

Do the protest signal the end of lockdown as if nobody gives two shits its better to have those folks distracted by working and spending rather than protesting.

I dont envy those in charge at the moment.

Edited by Fromage Frais
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Giving the hospitality sector the green light means the government can absolve itself of bail out duties. The fact that very few people are going to rush back out to these businesses, or that these businesses simply won't be able to operate profitably under social distancing guidelines will become their problem. A simplistic take, probably, but I think the government are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Hospitality is going to struggle badly for at least the rest of this year. Most pubs and restaurants operate on fine margins already, and simply won't be able to make ends meet if they are forced to operate at 50% capacity or less. That's assuming you can even fill the 50%.

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7 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Do the protest signal the end of lockdown as if nobody gives two shits its better to have those folks distracted by working and spending rather than protesting.

Breakup of the lockdown due to government diktat doesn't mean many people are going out to eat and drink. 

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There are headlines today - pubs to be open in 2 weeks. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/pubs-could-reopen-june-22-18379611.amp

7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Breakup of the lockdown due to government diktat doesn't mean many people are going out to eat and drink. 

I think you are going to be surprised. People are queueing for hours for a big mac and police shut two of my local mcdonald's after trouble. And that's only a real hardcore of people so desperate to get out they will sit in a queue of traffic for hours. 

Pubs are the same we've had a few mobbed after trying to open in a 'socially distant' way then shut by the police. 

Interestingly here in Scotland we don't have the same culture of Beer Gardens or on street drinking you have elsewhere so it'll be interesting to see how we cope as we like a drink. 

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20 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Breakup of the lockdown due to government diktat doesn't mean many people are going out to eat and drink. 

Maybe not.

But they definitely are not if locked down.

21 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

Giving the hospitality sector the green light means the government can absolve itself of bail out duties. The fact that very few people are going to rush back out to these businesses, or that these businesses simply won't be able to operate profitably under social distancing guidelines will become their problem. A simplistic take, probably, but I think the government are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Hospitality is going to struggle badly for at least the rest of this year. Most pubs and restaurants operate on fine margins already, and simply won't be able to make ends meet if they are forced to operate at 50% capacity or less. That's assuming you can even fill the 50%.

Yes that is a given.

However if you can open then some may be able to tread water or innovate to survive.

For example a hotel may have 50 rooms and can only fill 10-20 of them but with reduced staff and the owners taking a hit can limp along.

All those sub optimum scenarios may still add up to a lot of jobs re-opening is expensive and difficult so even treading water or loosing a few thousand more is better than completely shutting shop for some.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais
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19 minutes ago, regprentice said:

then shut by the police. 

Well there's the thing. Opening and staying open are quite different. Pubs and restaurants are by definition not socially distancing.

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28 minutes ago, regprentice said:

I think you are going to be surprised. People are queueing for hours for a big mac and police shut two of my local mcdonald's after trouble. And that's only a real hardcore of people so desperate to get out they will sit in a queue of traffic for hours. 

Pubs are the same we've had a few mobbed after trying to open in a 'socially distant' way then shut by the police. 

There'll definitely be some kind of bounce when things open up, and not all parts of the hospitality sector are going to be hit equally. I wouldn't have any problem sitting in a beer garden on a sunny day, but I don't see myself crammed into a gig in a small pub any time soon, for example. A lot of country pub type places and higher end eating establishments rely to a very great extent on older demographics - quite a different set of people in all liklihood to those trying to bash down the doors of the McDonald's drive thru. Older people - at least the ones that I know - are mostly still somewhat terrified of this virus, and with good reason.

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20 minutes ago, regprentice said:

 

Interestingly here in Scotland we don't have the same culture of Beer Gardens or on street drinking you have elsewhere so it'll be interesting to see how we cope as we like a drink. 

You don't say.

Scots cousin got a call on a Sunday evening from visiting relative, could he collect him and his mate from the pub?

Turns up, relative introduces said mate but nobody visible there. Then in front and below in the gloom is this tiny being.

They'd been drinking since it opened and he couldn't stand up so walked out of the bar on his knees. He couldn't speak either hence the delay when introduced.

The relative had no such problems, not a sign of being pi$$ed, ate and slept ok. We saw him in the buffet car on the way to Kings x next day at a table with two six packs of McEwans, one of which he'd just started.

These guys have got style.  Or maybe that's normal round their way.

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5 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

Older people - at least the ones that I know - are mostly still somewhat terrified of this virus, and with good reason.

I'm more concerned with the 5% chance of long term health issues that might not be related too age.

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1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

I'm more concerned with the 5% chance of long term health issues that might not be related too age.

I'm also worried about long term issues, since no one really has any idea yet what they are. There are plenty of viruses around that persist for years in the system, doing all sorts of nasty things, and we won't know for sure what this does, and how often, for at least a few more years.

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13 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

I'm also worried about long term issues, since no one really has any idea yet what they are. There are plenty of viruses around that persist for years in the system, doing all sorts of nasty things, and we won't know for sure what this does, and how often, for at least a few more years.

40% of Recovered SARS - 1 patients still have serious issues many years later. How different is SARS-CoV2.

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1 hour ago, regprentice said:

There are headlines today - pubs to be open in 2 weeks. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/pubs-could-reopen-june-22-18379611.amp

I think you are going to be surprised. People are queueing for hours for a big mac and police shut two of my local mcdonald's after trouble. And that's only a real hardcore of people so desperate to get out they will sit in a queue of traffic for hours. 

Pubs are the same we've had a few mobbed after trying to open in a 'socially distant' way then shut by the police. 

Interestingly here in Scotland we don't have the same culture of Beer Gardens or on street drinking you have elsewhere so it'll be interesting to see how we cope as we like a drink. 

Different places are going to have different outcomes.

Perhaps the hardest hit cafes/pubs/restaurants are going to be in Zone 1 London. Normally the place is packed with hordes of tourists adding to the huge numbers of commuting workers. It's going to be a time before the tourists come back - and a good percentage of those commuters will either stay WFH  or do their best to get a job closer to home that doesn't involve getting on the Tube.

Come a couple of miles out of central London and the situation flips back (in residential areas). High streets are still clogged with shoppers, whether they are going to Sainsburys, aldis or Poundland. And given that people need a diversion, they will probably use local cafes and pubs once they are allowed to open. Indeed, a few have already been doing so secretly.

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1 hour ago, regprentice said:

There are headlines today - pubs to be open in 2 weeks. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/pubs-could-reopen-june-22-18379611.amp

I think you are going to be surprised. People are queueing for hours for a big mac and police shut two of my local mcdonald's after trouble. And that's only a real hardcore of people so desperate to get out they will sit in a queue of traffic for hours. 

Pubs are the same we've had a few mobbed after trying to open in a 'socially distant' way then shut by the police. 

Interestingly here in Scotland we don't have the same culture of Beer Gardens or on street drinking you have elsewhere so it'll be interesting to see how we cope as we like a drink. 

Made me laugh. Weirdly I sort of have faith in human nature - people like to work and be active and do normal stuff. The health purists probably will be tut tutting but it's the human spirit on a micro scale. We are social chimps in spite of what the new age fan boys would have us believe. We know the risks but perhaps the risks to our longer term well being by being locked up is something we sense 

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5 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Different places are going to have different outcomes.

Perhaps the hardest hit cafes/pubs/restaurants are going to be in Zone 1 London. Normally the place is packed with hordes of tourists adding to the huge numbers of commuting workers. It's going to be a time before the tourists come back - and a good percentage of those commuters will either stay WFH  or do their best to get a job closer to home that doesn't involve getting on the Tube.

Come a couple of miles out of central London and the situation flips back (in residential areas). High streets are still clogged with shoppers, whether they are going to Sainsburys, aldis or Poundland. And given that people need a diversion, they will probably use local cafes and pubs once they are allowed to open. Indeed, a few have already been doing so secretly.

I think you are spot on my current offices are Wardour St and Covent Garden - empty no footfall - locally blink and it looks like a pre lockdown day

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12 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Different places are going to have different outcomes.

Perhaps the hardest hit cafes/pubs/restaurants are going to be in Zone 1 London. Normally the place is packed with hordes of tourists adding to the huge numbers of commuting workers. It's going to be a time before the tourists come back - and a good percentage of those commuters will either stay WFH  or do their best to get a job closer to home that doesn't involve getting on the Tube.

Come a couple of miles out of central London and the situation flips back (in residential areas). High streets are still clogged with shoppers, whether they are going to Sainsburys, aldis or Poundland. And given that people need a diversion, they will probably use local cafes and pubs once they are allowed to open. Indeed, a few have already been doing so secretly.

I went to tottenham court road today, it was like a ghost town.

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9 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Made me laugh. Weirdly I sort of have faith in human nature - people like to work and be active and do normal stuff. The health purists probably will be tut tutting but it's the human spirit on a micro scale. We are social chimps in spite of what the new age fan boys would have us believe. We know the risks but perhaps the risks to our longer term well being by being locked up is something we sense 

And then there is a the law which businesses have to abide by or be sued.

8 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I think you are spot on my current offices are Wardour St and Covent Garden - empty no footfall - locally blink and it looks like a pre lockdown day

I went to Wardour street last night to buy a Chinese take way (my office is nearby). Pretty dead, only one Chinese on Gerrard Street was open.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 08/06/2020 at 13:41, GregBowman said:

I think you are spot on my current offices are Wardour St and Covent Garden - empty no footfall - locally blink and it looks like a pre lockdown day

Retail Businesses that do most of their trade in busy cosmopolitan city centres are basically f*****d. The tourists are not here, the office workers are WFH and the universities are in lockdown. 

Quote

Boss Pano Christou told staff in a recent online meeting that an announcement about the "job situation" would be made on 8 July.

He said Pret's global weekly takings had fallen to £3m, just 15% of what they would normally be.

A Pret spokeswoman said staff would be the "first to hear about any changes".

Pret stores in the UK, the US and France have been hit hard by lockdowns as office workers stayed in their homes.

Beeb Pret

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24 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Retail Businesses that do most of their trade in busy cosmopolitan city centres are basically f*****d. The tourists are not here, the office workers are WFH and the universities are in lockdown. 

I went to Gerarrd Corner for takeaway again. Noticeably busier, constant flow of customers ordering. One Chinese supermarket open .

Still, dead compared to further out of town where its busy, drinking on streets outside pubs and on pub patios's

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3 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

I went to Gerarrd Corner for takeaway again. Noticeably busier, constant flow of customers ordering. One Chinese supermarket open .

Still, dead compared to further out of town where its busy, drinking on streets outside pubs and on pub patios's

How's the West End going to function - no singing in theatres, so that's musicals a bit buggered (unless they use recorded voices?). Presumably 50% seating capacity, so that's 50% of the normal number of customers in bars and restaurants around there. No/few overseas tourists, so that's the summer/autumn trade fecked too. Huge job losses must be inevitable.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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