Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 101
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

4 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

Down in real terms looks likely, this printy printy heist is off the scale! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Neapolitan said:

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

Nah, 90% discounts in a couple of years. S0d them.

If I can't imagine it happening, then I'm going to imagine it happening now. Who could've imagined London going a little mental on prices even after 2007? :-)

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Do you know any private business owners or people who work(ed) in service industries?

These people rent, they have been out the RE market since 2011...

I just think mortgage level back to where they were 2 months ago a little bit puzzling. 
theres a  lot of cash in banks account right now. Somewhere money must go, people will go full HTB if they were lucky enough to be in a job during lockdown. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Lenders have tightened their criteria and that will not ease until we see how many furloughed workers go back to a job, and how many become unemployed.

I think it’s inconceivable that prices won’t at least drop by 10-15% this year before at best rising back up 5% later in 2021.

There is going to be an avoidable stagnant period where people will still have to sell for a variety of personal reasons, but amidst weakened demand. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

Furlough was another prop to the housing market 

they will never let prices crash, banks and my let them adjust down slightly 

it’s clear that housing (apart from new builds) is a one way bet now 

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not the short term effects of the covid19 crisis that may tip house prices, it's the long term effects.

Furlough, etc, will mitigate the short term. That won't last forever. The costs will come in at some point.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

.?????

US saving rates are shooting high as people are panicking.

High saving rates is a negative for house buying.

In a typical uk recession only a small number of take a hit on jobs andor earnings - say 5%-10%, most of whom get another job within 6 months. So about 10% reduction in entire earnings.

News was reporting that 75% are reporting incomes are down 25% or more.

That's a much larger reduction, all in.

And a lot of the jobs are not coming back.

House stock is still in a bubble. Incomes have not caught up with housing costs.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Furlough was another prop to the housing market 

they will never let prices crash, banks and my let them adjust down slightly 

it’s clear that housing (apart from new builds) is a one way bet now 

Furlough has thwarted UK borrowing.

That's going to have a  very negative medium to long term impact on housing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Furlough has thwarted UK borrowing.

That's going to have a  very negative medium to long term impact on housing.

Negative interest rates - even down to quite modest bank balances, in the national interest, an emergency situation blah, blah.

Because nothing else will work. You know it makes sense.

That'll learn 'em not to save the money we gave them!

I do hope I'm hopelessly wrong about this.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.

You are right: people on this forum should get a grip and just go buy a house, at any price.

It's all back to normal now,  panic over.

There isn't going to be a second C19 wave, either...

 

49973996118_17a40b11ac_c.jpg

 

... since the first one never actually ended, at a global level. :rolleyes:

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Deckard said:

You are right: people on this forum should get a grip and just go buy a house, at any price.

It's all back to normal now,  panic over.

There isn't going to be a second C19 wave, either...

 

49973996118_17a40b11ac_c.jpg

 

... since the first one never actually ended, at a global level. :rolleyes:

Sorry to drift off house prices,

But even on the floating petri dish of perfect hosts the Princess ????, the virus burnt out with a 20% infection rate... London 17%, NYC 19%, Milan 18%... The lack of explosions in places without lockdowns... Heading to 100% infection and Zombie apocalypse this virus is not.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, captainb said:

Heading to 100% infection and Zombie apocalypse this virus is not.

And who said that?

At the same time, this thing has legs and will keep smothering any "green shoots of recovereh" for a long while - which brings us right back on topic re HPC.

Edited by Deckard
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, captainb said:

Sorry to drift off house prices,

But even on the floating petri dish of perfect hosts the Princess ????, the virus burnt out with a 20% infection rate... London 17%, NYC 19%, Milan 18%... The lack of explosions in places without lockdowns... Heading to 100% infection and Zombie apocalypse this virus is not.

That was with everyone locked in their cabins and, allegedly, a filtered air con system and a world class sanitation/infection control regime. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

I agree that this is a different animal. The boom in 2007 was on the back of a mortgage insurance fraud, the collapse was from that. Now, the fall is from covid-19 and brexit which are both real (sort of) things.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Deckard said:

And who said that?

At the same time, this thing has legs and will keep smothering any "green shoots of recovereh" for a long while - which brings us right back on topic re HPC.

If you look at the media it seems its the only risk going...

If there is another lockdown ill eat my hat. If they knew about this virus what they do now there wouldnt have been one in the first place.

The imperial model that led to it was hopelessly flawed. 1.2mill USA deaths without lockdown, now the variables are known that has been revised to 120k max.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That was with everyone locked in their cabins and allegedly filtered air con system and a world class sanitation regime. 

Only once they had all been exposed several times over was that enforced in port. Asymptomatic cases were 72%. 80% still tested negative.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, captainb said:

Sorry to drift off house prices,

No, you're not.

Why don't you go post in the C19 thread, captain? This one is about house prices. :rolleyes:

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Deckard said:

No, you're not.

Why don't you go post in the C19 thread, captain? This one is about house prices. :rolleyes:

Haha apologies!

Back to house prices for a change...

Too early to tell, wait until the autumn.. those expecting a 10-20% nominal fall should hopefully see it, dont hang around waiting for something huge like 20%+ with all this cheap money sloshing around. Someone will take the risk. Someone who probably owns 5 BTL already.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Neapolitan said:

It seems that mortgages application already at pre-lockdown level in the US. Savings rate skyrocketed and there more cash available to put towards a a deposit. 
Also, 2008 was a different animal. House stock was in bubble, too much houses around, so easy to spot bargains. 
But today? We are in this shock with different pants people. I wouldn’t put all my cash on this bet tbh.
 

Is English not your first language?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.