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US: Employment Up 2.5 million, Treasuries Down, Gold Down


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I don't see interest rates rising significantly until there's a complete and total collapse. In 2001 raising rates would have created a quick correction. By 2007 it would have been a huge downturn. But now? After twenty years of mismanagement the correction would be massive. It's not going to happen.

 Money will be printed. Interest rates will be held at zero percent or even be forced negative. This wont end until the system ends in catastrophic collapse.

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58 minutes ago, Biggus said:

I don't see interest rates rising significantly until there's a complete and total collapse. In 2001 raising rates would have created a quick correction. By 2007 it would have been a huge downturn. But now? After twenty years of mismanagement the correction would be massive. It's not going to happen.

 Money will be printed. Interest rates will be held at zero percent or even be forced negative. This wont end until the system ends in catastrophic collapse.

 

100% agree.

Same goes for a HPC.  Mortgage lending is THE credit pump into the general economy.  If the supply of credit shrinks, the economy tanks.  Therefore everything will be done to keep house prices high.  Interest rate repression, money printing for the financial sector, implicit govt backing for mortgage lending, 'help to buy' type giveaways, tax relief .... whatever it takes to get people to keep borrowing 'money' into existence.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Biggus said:

I don't see interest rates rising significantly until there's a complete and total collapse. In 2001 raising rates would have created a quick correction. By 2007 it would have been a huge downturn. But now? After twenty years of mismanagement the correction would be massive. It's not going to happen.

 Money will be printed. Interest rates will be held at zero percent or even be forced negative. This wont end until the system ends in catastrophic collapse.

 

So I think my investment moves are reasonably well documented on this forum, i.e the fact I sold out  with the DOW at about 25,500 back in Oct 2018 thinking/knowing it was overvalued. I then stuck the proceeds into bonds and cash, before turning the lot into cash about 6 month later. I then sat on my hands until the COVID crash. By some luck, my funds mostly bought on the 23rd March which was the lowest day on the DOW.

Anyway, with the crazy gains since, I can today announce that my pension funds are in total up by £101k since March 23. Not quite like winning the lottery, but pretty damn crazy!

All printy printy!!! 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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21 hours ago, Locke said:

Average hourly earnings DOWN

Apparently the Fed can print jobs.

Does this mean that if employment picks up, interest rates rise?

They could print $1 bills,  drop them all over the Cities via a C130, and people could literally be paid for clearing the streets!

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22 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

 

100% agree.

Same goes for a HPC.  Mortgage lending is THE credit pump into the general economy.  If the supply of credit shrinks, the economy tanks.  Therefore everything will be done to keep house prices high.  Interest rate repression, money printing for the financial sector, implicit govt backing for mortgage lending, 'help to buy' type giveaways, tax relief .... whatever it takes to get people to keep borrowing 'money' into existence.

 

 

I agree to a point, and as a result we won’t see a massive crash. I think it will be between 15-25% drop by this time next year, then it will start going up again and it would be better to have modest debt on a fixed rate for 5 years than cash. 

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On 05/06/2020 at 16:11, Biggus said:

Money will be printed. Interest rates will be held at zero percent or even be forced negative. This wont end until the system ends in catastrophic collapse.

I agree but I think that collapse is a lot closer than it feels like.

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On 05/06/2020 at 17:15, Sour Mash said:

Therefore everything will be done to keep house prices high.  Interest rate repression, money printing for the financial sector, implicit govt backing for mortgage lending, 'help to buy' type giveaways, tax relief .... whatever it takes to get people to keep borrowing 'money' into existence.

Well it works until it doesn't.

On 06/06/2020 at 15:26, HovelinHove said:

I agree to a point, and as a result we won’t see a massive crash. I think it will be between 15-25% drop by this time next year, then it will start going up again and it would be better to have modest debt on a fixed rate for 5 years than cash. 

Do you believe that it can be levitated literally ad infinitum? What error did the Weimar Republic commit which has not been repeated now?

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10 minutes ago, Locke said:

Well it works until it doesn't.

Do you believe that it can be levitated literally ad infinitum? What error did the Weimar Republic commit which has not been repeated now?

What error? The Weimar hyperinflation was used to drive the French out of the Ruhr coalfields which had been occupied in response to Germany defaulting on its onerous WWI reparations. It succeeded in that ambition. The French left with their tails between their legs; the mark's value was fully restored by the end of 1925.

Germany2-2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

What error? The Weimar hyperinflation was used to drive the French out of the Ruhr coalfields which had been occupied in response to Germany defaulting on its onerous WWI reparations. It succeeded in that ambition. The French left with their tails between their legs; the mark's value was fully restored by the end of 1925.

Germany2-2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

 

 

 

Let's say in 1913, you took ten 100 mark notes out from the bank and hid them in your basement.

If you waited 20 years and in 1933 attempted to buy some gold with the ten 100 mark notes, how much gold would you get?

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 08/06/2020 at 11:10, Locke said:

Let's say in 1913, you took ten 100 mark notes out from the bank and hid them in your basement.

If you waited 20 years and in 1933 attempted to buy some gold with the ten 100 mark notes, how much gold would you get?

@zugzwang

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11 minutes ago, Locke said:

Let's say in 1923 the French army invades the Ruhr to extract by force reparations payments that you are unable to meet.

How do you send the occupiers home again, having just fought and lost a terrible war?

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9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Let's say in 1923 the French army invades the Ruhr to extract by force reparations payments that you are unable to meet.

How do you send the occupiers home again, having just fought and lost a terrible war?

With or without a government?

Please answer the objective question, because I am genuinely curious:

On 08/06/2020 at 11:10, Locke said:

Let's say in 1913, you took ten 100 mark notes out from the bank and hid them in your basement.

If you waited 20 years and in 1933 attempted to buy some gold with the those same ten 100 mark notes, how much gold would you get?

 

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2 hours ago, Locke said:

With or without a government?

Please answer the objective question, because I am genuinely curious:

 

I've explained the Weimar hyperinflation. It succeeded in its primary objective: getting the French army out of the Ruhr. Yes, there were casualties. Some middle-class German families lost everything. It left a lingering suspicion of finance and banking that Germans still haven't quite got over. Worst of all, the phrase 'Jew confetti' began to be used to describe the Mark.

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On 26/06/2020 at 16:41, zugzwang said:

I've explained the Weimar hyperinflation. It succeeded in its primary objective: getting the French army out of the Ruhr. Yes, there were casualties. Some middle-class German families lost everything. It left a lingering suspicion of finance and banking that Germans still haven't quite got over. Worst of all, the phrase 'Jew confetti' began to be used to describe the Mark.

 

On 08/06/2020 at 11:10, Locke said:

Let's say in 1913, you took ten 100 mark notes out from the bank and hid them in your basement.

If you waited 20 years and in 1933 attempted to buy some gold with the ten 100 mark notes, how much gold would you get?

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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