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Stock markets recovering, but to me it feels like we are in the Wile E. Coyote running of a cliff and gravity not yet catching up phase.


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Stock markets seems to be booming.

 

But we haven't even had any of the economic data for the lockdown come through yet.  It seems to me like people are still able to function due to Furlough money etc.  we are not yet seeing any real financial difficulties come through.

 

Personally I think it will take a few months for every thing to become more clear, am I wrong?

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Could be that some of the larger well-established companies will benefit from all this (in the longer run). Smaller competition gets wiped out, and then the remaining firms increase their prices to a captive audience. Plus, you just know that certain big enterprises will be deemed "too big to fail" and get bailed out by the govt. Let's hope that it's not the tax avoiding giants we all know and love.

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22 minutes ago, reddog said:

Stock markets seems to be booming.

 

But we haven't even had any of the economic data for the lockdown come through yet.  It seems to me like people are still able to function due to Furlough money etc.  we are not yet seeing any real financial difficulties come through.

 

Personally I think it will take a few months for every thing to become more clear, am I wrong?

Hand my business 4bn a day and it'll boom too

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34 minutes ago, reddog said:

Stock markets seems to be booming.

 

But we haven't even had any of the economic data for the lockdown come through yet.  It seems to me like people are still able to function due to Furlough money etc.  we are not yet seeing any real financial difficulties come through.

 

Personally I think it will take a few months for every thing to become more clear, am I wrong?

Markets know the data will be crap thats built in. 

People dont need to be told by a survey that clothing sales will be dire. They are well aware the shops are shut! 

Traders are betting that the stimulus packages and all the cheap cash sloshing around, Bounce back loans, furlough, all the cash saved by people staying in, buisness rates savings, cash dumped onto banks balance sheets will find a home somewhere and perhaps cause a v shape recovery. 

Of course everyone on here thinks thats impossible but the markets represent all views admittedly with a bullish bias, where as here is always going to be absurdly bearish. 

 

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The core of the modern economic policy is to protect asset prices from any drop even in the short-term. Assets are only allowed to go up. If asset prices start going down it will be labeled as market dislocation, and governments/central banks will start throwing unlimited amounts of money to deal with it.

Indeed there are lots of risks in economy now, even in the base case scenario companies earnings will not recover for years to come. However, market participants have confidence that governments/BOE/FED will bail them out if things go wrong. It is a huge moral hazard that is driving the markets now.

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55 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Could be that some of the larger well-established companies will benefit from all this (in the longer run). Smaller competition gets wiped out, and then the remaining firms increase their prices to a captive audience. Plus, you just know that certain big enterprises will be deemed "too big to fail" and get bailed out by the govt. Let's hope that it's not the tax avoiding giants we all know and love.

I thought we needed a government in order to prevent monopolies from taking over the market?

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1 hour ago, reddog said:

Stock markets seems to be booming.

 

But we haven't even had any of the economic data for the lockdown come through yet.  It seems to me like people are still able to function due to Furlough money etc.  we are not yet seeing any real financial difficulties come through.

 

Personally I think it will take a few months for every thing to become more clear, am I wrong?

Since when did the st mkt have much to do with the economy?

$12-14trns FED money pumped into financial mkts, init.

The economy is in the biggest recession since the 1930s.

Stocks are in mega multi year bull mkt.

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43 minutes ago, Si1 said:

That would not be very supportive of Killer Bunny's inflation thesis...

If we were going to see continued deflation/disinflation (as we have for decades) US 10 year Treasury yields would be -ve.

Just look at the markets to see the future.  They always know.

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10 minutes ago, longgone said:

dividends tax at 50% then to pay for furlough money invested into stocks is not money needed its play money. 

The rich/bankers and their puppet politicians wont tax themselves.  Their intention is take take everything off everyone else.

 

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1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The rich/bankers and their puppet politicians wont tax themselves.  Their intention is take take everything off everyone else.

 

i suggest everyone stops paying paye and buying goods then ;).  

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23 minutes ago, longgone said:

i suggest everyone stops paying paye and buying goods then ;).  

Our biggest weapon against the elites is to withhold our consumption - they don't want us to even contemplate it so will throw anything to keep us farmed.

Why do you think so many protests to open shops up 'suddenly' appeared?

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5 minutes ago, AAA said:

The core of the modern economic policy is to protect asset prices from any drop even in the short-term. Assets are only allowed to go up. If asset prices start going down it will be labeled as market dislocation, and governments/central banks will start throwing unlimited amounts of money to deal with it.

Indeed there are lots of risks in economy now, even in the base case scenario companies earnings will not recover for years to come. However, market participants have confidence that governments/BOE/FED will bail them out if things go wrong. It is a huge moral hazard that is driving the markets now.

Collectively perhaps but not individually. Those that invested in say shopping centers are still annihilated by this process - just look at the five year INTU chart.

Agree its now expected that when markets crash there is stimulus, however so what? Its not going to change you just need to act on it

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38 minutes ago, longgone said:

i suggest everyone stops paying paye and buying goods then ;).  

They dont pay PAYE, it's taken from them by compliant corporations before they give you your cut.

It's like, organised crime.

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13 minutes ago, msi said:

Our biggest weapon against the elites is to withhold our consumption - they don't want us to even contemplate it so will throw anything to keep us farmed.

Why do you think so many protests to open shops up 'suddenly' appeared?

i`m well aware of that. they rather open shops and risk another spike. 

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3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Or they've already go their free cash and either dont care or know it's bollax

could well be, part of me does think this was all made up deliberately to hide all the failure in a virus. funny how it mostly affects BAME 

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2 minutes ago, longgone said:

could well be, part of me does think this was all made up deliberately to hide all the failure in a virus. funny how it mostly affects BAME 

It worries me how quickly they've managed to get the stock market back to "normal", usiong 100's of billions of QE cash stolen from the rest of us.

 

I kid you now, pretty much EVERYONE in the know thinks there will be a house price crash now...except me.

 

!!!! HELP !!!!

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41 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

More opportunity for the great unwashed to keep the elite in the style they are used to.  Sod the scientists.

They had the opportunity to break the original lockdown but didn't.  Lockdown, although late, was more effective than planned.  Hence the sudden 'freedom to shop' movement sprung up.  You have survivalists boasting of their 6month food supply and water purification, but suddenly they become desperate for a haircut.

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8 hours ago, captainb said:

Collectively perhaps but not individually. Those that invested in say shopping centers are still annihilated by this process - just look at the five year INTU chart.

Agree its now expected that when markets crash there is stimulus, however so what? Its not going to change you just need to act on it

INTU is a recless highly leveraged company. A very good example of the worst parts of the current market. It should have been gone bankrupt long time ago. But it is still there intact hoping to get bailout from its lenders due to "market dislocation" as per their own recent RNS.

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  • 418 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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