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This forum has the feel of 2007 about it again, everything seemed positive then and the madness of the previous 10 years was over.

House prices should have ( and did in some areas ) go through the floor never to return again.

We all know what happened next.

I sincerely hope the government do the right thing now and let the market correct but let me put this in a way everyone will understand...NO ****ING CHANCE.

God know what's coming next but I'd wager it's bad for everyone bar the rich/politicians.

Good luck, I hope I am wrong.

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We didn't have 4-8 million people about to become unemployed back then. Nor were we looking at whole sectors - hospitality, travel etc - being wiped out.

I agree that TPTB will do their best to revert to "the norm", and notice that talk of allowing 3 million Hong Kong Chinese is being proposed. But I suspect that this time sentiment as well as the reality will prevail. It isn't going to be pretty.

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13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This forum has the feel of 2007 about it again, everything seemed positive then and the madness of the previous 10 years was over.

House prices should have ( and did in some areas ) go through the floor never to return again.

We all know what happened next.

I sincerely hope the government do the right thing now and let the market correct but let me put this in a way everyone will understand...NO ****ING CHANCE.

God know what's coming next but I'd wager it's bad for everyone bar the rich/politicians.

Good luck, I hope I am wrong.

Citation.

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13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This forum has the feel of 2007 about it again, everything seemed positive then and the madness of the previous 10 years was over.

House prices should have ( and did in some areas ) go through the floor never to return again.

We all know what happened next.

I sincerely hope the government do the right thing now and let the market correct but let me put this in a way everyone will understand...NO ****ING CHANCE.

God know what's coming next but I'd wager it's bad for everyone bar the rich/politicians.

Good luck, I hope I am wrong.

I'd say there's more chance.

The government are going to be borrowing what, six months ago, would have seemed unimaginal figures. Are they really going to be able to afford huge sums to prop up the housing market? And don't forget rates are 0%, perhaps the ultimate backstop unless the government wants to go full bore down the negative rates road - which I doubt.

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3 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

We didn't have 4-8 million people about to become unemployed back then. Nor were we looking at whole sectors - hospitality, travel etc - being wiped out.

Virtually overnight in comparison to 2008, as well.  2008 was a slow motion car crash in comparison.  This is multiple oil tankers smashing into each other grade.  

4 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

I agree that TPTB will do their best to revert to "the norm", and notice that talk of allowing 3 million Hong Kong Chinese is being proposed. But I suspect that this time sentiment as well as the reality will prevail. It isn't going to be pretty.

Returning back to "the norm" whilst millions of jobs go poof.  That'll be interesting.  

3m HK is noise - quite a few have started exiting HK back with their riots and what-not to neighbouring countries.

 

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7 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

We didn't have 4-8 million people about to become unemployed back then. Nor were we looking at whole sectors - hospitality, travel etc - being wiped out.

I agree that TPTB will do their best to revert to "the norm", and notice that talk of allowing 3 million Hong Kong Chinese is being proposed. But I suspect that this time sentiment as well as the reality will prevail. It isn't going to be pretty.

One thing that is different this time are the number of people who think house prices are too high, actually, insane.  

There's plenty under 40s now who have no chance of buying a house etc.

It's political and economic madness to push up prices.

I wonder what the ex Goldman Sachs banker chancellor who bought an over priced mansion oop north thinks about house prices....

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3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

One thing that is different this time are the number of people who think house prices are too high, actually, insane.  

There's plenty under 40s now who have no chance of buying a house etc.

It's political and economic madness to push up prices.

I wonder what the ex Goldman Sachs banker chancellor who bought an over priced mansion oop north thinks about house prices....

... and they have a global pandemic to blame. 

This sucker is going down.

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13 minutes ago, crouch said:

I'd say there's more chance.

The government are going to be borrowing what, six months ago, would have seemed unimaginal figures. Are they really going to be able to afford huge sums to prop up the housing market? And don't forget rates are 0%, perhaps the ultimate backstop unless the government wants to go full bore down the negative rates road - which I doubt.

They'll be borrowing to....prop up the housing market.

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44 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Citation.

Wanted or being given ?

That's down about 50% nominally and about 60%+ in real terms.

OK ?  Happy ?

image.png.6fc8497477cb9b331d2fed34e99a54a9.png

 

NI was a crazy bubble in 2007...Londistan is MUCH worse

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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In 2007 I was worried about the collateral damage that HPC would bring.

Now I don't care, burn it all - you had enough time to protect yourselves.  Things need to get Biblical

 

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9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This forum has the feel of 2007 about it again, everything seemed positive then and the madness of the previous 10 years was over.

House prices should have ( and did in some areas ) go through the floor never to return again.

We all know what happened next.

I sincerely hope the government do the right thing now and let the market correct but let me put this in a way everyone will understand...NO ****ING CHANCE.

God know what's coming next but I'd wager it's bad for everyone bar the rich/politicians.

Good luck, I hope I am wrong.

It’s game over.  There is a real sense of panic and urgency in the market at the moment, getting deals over the line.  It’s not happening though.  Most professionals are furloughed and everything is literally stuck.  Nothing is moving.  In the meantime, sentiment Is changing and more reduce their accepted offer, they are refused, pull out of sale and another chain collapses.  The housing market is in complete chaos.  Chains are collapsing left, right and centre.
 

I don’t think there will be any props this time, we would have had them already when the market re-opened, to give it a boost before sentiment changed.   They may try and bring in schemes, to help oo, but it’s gone past the point of saving the  housing market.

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9 hours ago, GeneCernan said:

... and they have a global pandemic to blame.

^  this.

As I've said before: if a HPC doesn't happen now, then I'll accept that it never will.

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9 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Citation.

Northern Ireland. The house I'm I'm probably dropped 60% and still not back to the 2007 price. 

 

House beside me on at 950k now and hasn't sold in 12 years

https://www.propertypal.com/27b-deramore-park-malone-belfast/542607

Was on at 2.15 million in 2007

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/life/house-home/a-des-res-with-all-mod-cons-28067583.html

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This forum has the feel of 2007 about it again, everything seemed positive then and the madness of the previous 10 years was over.

House prices should have ( and did in some areas ) go through the floor never to return again.

We all know what happened next.

I sincerely hope the government do the right thing now and let the market correct but let me put this in a way everyone will understand...NO ****ING CHANCE.

God know what's coming next but I'd wager it's bad for everyone bar the rich/politicians.

Good luck, I hope I am wrong.

There was a window of opportunity in the winter of 2008/09; some forced sales were being listed at 30% off peak price in my area, before everything kicked off again. I know, because we bought one. Looking back, it was probably the last bargain in the shire, but we did not know that then. We got lucky.

My personal view is that a similar thing will happen again. There will be a collapse in prices going into this winter. BUY WEAKNESS. After that, whilst the economy might (or might not) be in a tailspin, house prices will be lifted on a tide of inflation. If you hold out for too much or for too long - well, you held out for too long.

This is not advice. It is a guess.

 

 

Edited by Timm
Not advice
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9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This forum has the feel of 2007 about it again, everything seemed positive then and the madness of the previous 10 years was over.

House prices should have ( and did in some areas ) go through the floor never to return again.

We all know what happened next.

I sincerely hope the government do the right thing now and let the market correct but let me put this in a way everyone will understand...NO ****ING CHANCE.

God know what's coming next but I'd wager it's bad for everyone bar the rich/politicians.

Good luck, I hope I am wrong.

Great faith in this site in those long gone days, STR in Jan 2008, expecting the predicted crash.

I waited, and waited, and waited a bit longer, until October 2014, watching prices heading North.

So, reluctantly, we bought again in 2014, and witnessed a 25.7% increase in the past 5 & 1/2 years.

Yes, now expecting to see that 25.7% 'gain' wiped out, maybe even more, but it's only a home, not a business investment.

We could have taken the BTR route when down sizing in 2008, but not our bag, seen too many trashed homes on TV.

So, I'm still a HPC fan many years later, but I fear a real crash later in the year (pretty sure it was coming, even before Covid-19).

Not expecting it to effect us directly (we're not moving!), but it should seriously help the younger folks that have sacrificed much to save, save, save, for their own home.

Very pleased if those folks get their dream, their very own front door, without worrying about being moved out of their rented home.

The times they are a changing, is ERIC still around? Much enjoyed his contributions.

 

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13 minutes ago, Timm said:

There will be a collapse in prices going into this winter. BUY WEAKNESS. After that, whilst the economy might (or might not) be in a tailspin, house prices will be lifted on a tide of inflation.

Who exactly do you expect will be jumping in en masse after the winter, Timbo?

Where will all that dosh be coming from?

 

And on another note,  why is the black horse in your avatar not bleeding anymore like in the olden days? :P

Edited by Deckard
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6 minutes ago, robbingXpat said:

Great faith in this site in those long gone days, STR in Jan 2008, expecting the predicted crash.

I waited, and waited, and waited a bit longer, until October 2014, watching prices heading North.

What area of the UK? Did you not see any falls at all?

6 minutes ago, robbingXpat said:

The times they are a changing, is ERIC still around? Much enjoyed his contributions.

Haha - ERIC! What was his surname, was it Pebbles?

I used to share an HMO with one of the FAs in his favourite videos...

Ohh, and the Primitives. Someone needs to post that song again!

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17 minutes ago, Deckard said:

Who exactly do you expect will be jumping in en masse after the winter, Timbo?

Where will all that dosh be coming from?

The same as last time.

People who still have jobs and can't believe their luck.

The money will come from the same places - the other side of the book, and the state.

Quote

And why is the prancing horse in your avatar not bleeding anymore, like in the olden days? :P

Ha!

I think you might have me confused with someone else,

I never used a bleeding horse here. But I did post for a while in a (coughs) similar place, where I used a wobbly cartoon rendering of the black horse, with the strap line "shonky donkey" instead of "black horse apocalypse".

I might have used that here, but the source image has been deleted (as has the other place).

This post will no doubt be edited in 5 minutes.

 

 

Edited by Timm
Time
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8 minutes ago, Timm said:

What area of the UK? Did you not see any falls at all?

 

GLOS, yes, but not like we'll see this winter!

In 1989/90 we saw our then home 'value' go from approx £120k to about £75k, but it all returned (and more) by the time we STR in 2014. 

Property ownership is like snakes and ladders, it's not like on TV,  profit, profit, profit!

 

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There are a few difference to 2007.

The main bubble was a mortgage insurance fraud, so there were companies desperately wanting to push mortgages that would fail. They were banking on it. That created a bubble and is different to this time.

In the context of the UK, consider the graph on the front page:
real house price trend graph

This coming drop is from actual things buggering up the British economy, i.e. covid-19 and brexit. In 2007, the issue was that over-excitement comparsed with houseprice inflation in the USA had created a the bubble. Now, we have had an underperforming economy for a decade and reasons for it to get worse.

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18 minutes ago, Timm said:

People who still have jobs and can't believe their luck.

A short, sharp drop then? How sharp in % terms?

And followed by what, new highs in nominal terms?

I can't see that myself, not for some time after the crash, and certainly not in a matter of months.

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The thing is that any falls this year will be in a very artificial environment of uber low interest rates, funny money, htb etc. It will still be an artificially high bubble after the covid effect, no matter what the falls are going to be, even if prices halve. Say they do halve, and for example interest rates have to rise, or the props are removed, being unaffordable - that will be the bubble popping, right in the middle of the post covid slump. 50% then another 50% anyone? Not a prediction, just a reminder that we are in a bubble even taking the covid crash into account 

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10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

One thing that is different this time are the number of people who think house prices are too high, actually, insane.  

There's plenty under 40s now who have no chance of buying a house etc.

It's political and economic madness to push up prices.

I wonder what the ex Goldman Sachs banker chancellor who bought an over priced mansion oop north thinks about house prices....

Are we referring to the current chancellor? I know he has a background in finance or some such but I don't think he would have a VI in propping up house prices. Whatever he paid for a house would be small beer compared to his wife's riches (she is a billionaire heiress) so his personal pain threshold for any notional drop in asset prices would be far higher. For this reason alone I expect to see a much bigger crash than we had in 2008

 

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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