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25 minutes ago, simon2 said:

I think ultimately there will be a modest drift downwards but its hard to see it going back to pre-HTB prices without policy intervention (removal of HTB, higher interest rates). Longer-term inflation will be the bigger contributor.

to what?  To HPI?  If that's what you believe then you need to rethink.

Sustained inflation >> higher borrowing rates.

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17 minutes ago, nickb1 said:

don't forget to multiply this with the coming "disruption" of Brexit. Hold onto your hats, and jobs ...

How silly.

IF - big if still - we Leave, it will be a boost to the economy.

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36 minutes ago, nickb1 said:

don't forget to multiply this with the coming "disruption" of Brexit. Hold onto your hats, and jobs ...

oh yes remember that!  Brexit has been taken completely off the news agenda for months but recently has started to pop up again and reportedly the negotiations are heading for a disaster.

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30 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

to what?  To HPI?  If that's what you believe then you need to rethink.

Sustained inflation >> higher borrowing rates.

No, to house price declines.

In nominal terms I reckon a flat that cost £450k peak in London in 2017/2018 could bottom out somewhere around £325k (currently around £400k, so still a way to go).

I reckon it'll be some years before it gets back to exceeding £400k. Perhaps 2025? That assumes 5% year on year growth.

But even if it does get back to £400k by then, inflation means that in real terms a price crash has happened without most people realising it. If big inflation comes the winners will be those who have parked their money in assets which can defend against inflation. I don't really see property or cash being ideal at this point, equities and precious metals seem far better.

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1 hour ago, Clarky Cat said:

Just need the Express headline now

House prices PLUNGE by £120 PER DAY in May

Or, “House price inflation plunged 54% in a month” (from 3.9% annually to 1.8% annually)

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

11 years of rises after the banks collapsed due to a housing bubble.

****ing madness. 

Total and utter ****ing madness.

If I hadn't sat through the last 11 years I'd not believe what I had witnessed.

I liken it to the railway mania and I'm sticking with that comparisson.  We have a corrupt self serving government who have brought the country to it's knees just to keep themselves in clover.

 

 

 

Whatever happens it's safe to say that those same people won't give up their unearned wealth without a fight. This is going to get very interesting, popcorn at the ready. :) 

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16 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

Whatever happens it's safe to say that those same people won't give up their unearned wealth without a fight. This is going to get very interesting, popcorn at the ready. :) 

100% Agree.  They have already driven the UK to the edge of collapse before the CV19 hit, it was a matter of time till something put it over the edge.

It looks to me like their plan is to keep the plates spinning, once of their first announcements after lockdown, maybe even the first was 0,1% interest rates and more TERM FUNDING.  Term Funding being the very thing that forced mortgage and savings rates down and house prices up.

Sentiment will change but there are no end of people in the UK who see pwopatee as a one way bet, no matter what everyone else is screaming out

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40 minutes ago, simon2 said:

No, to house price declines.

In nominal terms I reckon a flat that cost £450k peak in London in 2017/2018 could bottom out somewhere around £325k (currently around £400k, so still a way to go).

I reckon it'll be some years before it gets back to exceeding £400k. Perhaps 2025? That assumes 5% year on year growth.

But even if it does get back to £400k by then, inflation means that in real terms a price crash has happened without most people realising it. If big inflation comes the winners will be those who have parked their money in assets which can defend against inflation. I don't really see property or cash being ideal at this point, equities and precious metals seem far better.

Based on wages and interest rates of 5%, those flats aren't even worth £100K.

The debt fuelled housing pyramid is the biggest scam in history

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45 minutes ago, simon2 said:

No, to house price declines.

In nominal terms I reckon a flat that cost £450k peak in London in 2017/2018 could bottom out somewhere around £325k (currently around £400k, so still a way to go).

I reckon it'll be some years before it gets back to exceeding £400k. Perhaps 2025? That assumes 5% year on year growth.

But even if it does get back to £400k by then, inflation means that in real terms a price crash has happened without most people realising it. If big inflation comes the winners will be those who have parked their money in assets which can defend against inflation. I don't really see property or cash being ideal at this point, equities and precious metals seem far better.

??????

Talking about the wrong thing.

I reckon a London flat will bottom out somewhere at 2.5 single persons earnings, like they used to..

Some about ~80k, dependiing where it is.

 

 

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49 minutes ago, simon2 said:

No, to house price declines.

In nominal terms I reckon a flat that cost £450k peak in London in 2017/2018 could bottom out somewhere around £325k (currently around £400k, so still a way to go).

I reckon it'll be some years before it gets back to exceeding £400k. Perhaps 2025? That assumes 5% year on year growth.

But even if it does get back to £400k by then, inflation means that in real terms a price crash has happened without most people realising it. If big inflation comes the winners will be those who have parked their money in assets which can defend against inflation. I don't really see property or cash being ideal at this point, equities and precious metals seem far better.

Even now, I dont think there are that many flats in London selling for 450k

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32 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Now seeing 3 bed flats in Chelsea for what loons were paying for 1 bed flats in tooting :lol::lol::lol:

Despite the hype, the non new, non rich Ayrab housing market in London has been pretty flat for the last 5 years.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Even now, I dont think there are that many flats in London selling for 450k

There are loads

Yes transaction numbers have come down but for the last five years even ex councin in sw london has been over 400k. 

At peak around

2005 a two bed in fulham would be 700k plus. 

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29 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Despite the hype, the non new, non rich Ayrab housing market in London has been pretty flat for the last 5 years.

Massive over supply of new build flats.  It turns out the number of people able to pay £800K for a 1 bed flat in a sky scraper in the east end is much lower than anticipated.

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20 minutes ago, captainb said:

There are loads

Yes transaction numbers have come down but for the last five years even ex councin in sw london has been over 400k. 

At peak around

2005 a two bed in fulham would be 700k plus. 

Cheapest is £450K now.  Are you sure ?


Tooting looks expensive now

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-69748288.html

2 bedroom flat for sale

Wandsworth Bridge Road, London

Guide Price£470,000

 

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-77088787.html

 

2 bedroom flat for sale

Parkview Court, 38 Fulham High Street, London, SW6

£575,000

 

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-77259640.html

2 bedroom flat for sale

Comeragh Road, West Kensington

£600,000

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Cheapest is £450K now.  Are you sure ?


Tooting looks expensive now

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-69748288.html

2 bedroom flat for sale

Wandsworth Bridge Road, London

Guide Price£470,000

 

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-77088787.html

 

2 bedroom flat for sale

Parkview Court, 38 Fulham High Street, London, SW6

£575,000

 

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-77259640.html

2 bedroom flat for sale

Comeragh Road, West Kensington

£600,000

 

 

 

The poster said "not many flats are selling for £450k in London". That is divorced from reality in lots of SW London and central areas

Well aware there are plenty of two beds on the market for a lot more than £450k

 

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Just finished the import to houseprices.io

There seems to be an amazing number of "Additional price paid transactions" (highlighted yellow) at the moment. These are:

  • transfers under a power of sale (repossessions)
  • buy-to-lets where they can be identified by a mortgage
  • transfers to non-private individuals

Difficult to draw any conclusions from that, without knowing how many there are of which.

Edited by evictee
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17 minutes ago, captainb said:

The poster said "not many flats are selling for £450k in London". That is divorced from reality in lots of SW London and central areas

Well aware there are plenty of two beds on the market for a lot more than £450k

 

That was in reply to 

"At peak around

2005 a two bed in fulham would be 700k plus. "

I don't need an editor, thanks

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That was in reply to 

"At peak around

2005 a two bed in fulham would be 700k plus. "

I don't need an editor, thanks

Thanks and as you are well aware that was a response to - 

Even now, I dont think there are that many flats in London selling for 450k

 

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