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2 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

YoY still 1.8%

Well, I think there are enough fundamentals to know that it’s not going to stop now. The same Nationwide have said that they expect -13.8% by the end of the year.

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6 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

Well, I think there are enough fundamentals to know that it’s not going to stop now. The same Nationwide have said that they expect -13.8% by the end of the year.

And if Nationwide are predicting a 13.8% decrease, you know it’s going to be a lot more......

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That’s a great start. We just need a couple of these and sentiment will turn...... then the fun begins. This takes me back to 2008..... eagerly waiting for each Nationwide and Halifax release!

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55 minutes ago, xxxx said:

 

And if Nationwide are predicting a 13.8% decrease, you know it’s going to be a lot more......

No, let’s be specific... it’s not a -13.8% decrease, it’s a -13.8% by the end of the year, likely to continue  after the initial decline. I think it’s pretty realistic to think that we could see -40% in 3 years.

Live hasn’t changed that much since 2012... why would prices have to be so different? If something, live is MUCH worse now after what we have been experiencing for the last 3 months...

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1 minute ago, Burbujista said:

No, let’s be specific... it’s not a -13.8% decrease, it’s a -13.8% by the end of the year, probably continuing to decline after than decline. I think it’s pretty realistic to think that we could see -40% in 3 years.

Live hasn’t changed that much since 2012... why would prices have to be so different? If something, live is MUCH worse now after what we have been experiencing for the last 3 months...

Life isnt so much different since 1999 but a mars bar is still double not sure i get the argument. 

20% would do me nicely, not sure i want to miss that hanging around for 25% etc 

Each to thier own 

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20 minutes ago, captainb said:

Life isnt so much different since 1999 but a mars bar is still double not sure i get the argument. 

20% would do me nicely, not sure i want to miss that hanging around for 25% etc 

Each to thier own 

Life changed a lot from 1999 to 2012, inflation high, much rapid growth and demographics were positive. That’s why I didn’t use 1999 as a reference.

Again, the same cannot be said about the 2012-2020 period.

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3 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

Life changed a lot from 1999 to 2012, inflation high, much rapid growth and demographics were positive. That’s why I didn’t use 1999 as a reference.

Again, the same cannot be said about the 2012-2020 period.

Inflation for 2012 -2020 is 19% from the ONS, wage growth around 2% per annum as well so 17%.

Agreed dull numbers each year but year on year trot up into something relatively sizeable.

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7 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Really? You want the MSM screaming at the govt to introduce yet more props??

No, just proposing an alternative headline to the usual "Homeowners JOY as house prices SOAR by £4000 in May"!

Clearly there's going to be screaming for props anyway and the government will do something. 

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Surely June's figures will end up worse. One month in a row isn't going to change things. I do wonder with their arbitrary inputs the figures might end up being very close to their -13.8% prediction. But we still would need more. On the face of it -13.8% from here would mean the average house price is still fairly expensive relative to average wage.

In London anyway, there have been substantial changes since 2012. HTB basically put an extra £100k average on properties. Unspectacular newish 2-beds in unspectacular locations went from £250k to £350k very quickly from between roughly 2014-2016. This rising tide forced up the prices of everything else as people could then trade up for more. 

A really nice house (3-bed semi-detached, 100ft garden) in a nice outer suburb was £450k in around 2014, but last year one sold for £650k.

I think ultimately there will be a modest drift downwards but its hard to see it going back to pre-HTB prices without policy intervention (removal of HTB, higher interest rates). Longer-term inflation will be the bigger contributor.

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59 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

BBC headline biggest fall in a month for 11 years

11 years of rises after the banks collapsed due to a housing bubble.

****ing madness. 

Total and utter ****ing madness.

If I hadn't sat through the last 11 years I'd not believe what I had witnessed.

I liken it to the railway mania and I'm sticking with that comparisson.  We have a corrupt self serving government who have brought the country to it's knees just to keep themselves in clover.

 

 

 

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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