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estate agent tells me to offer 10-20% off - and this is before mass redundancies!


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24 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Appropriately enough...

Is down-valuing for mortgage lending purposes about to hit the housing market recovery?

https://propertyindustryeye.com/is-down-valuing-for-mortgage-lending-purposes-about-to-hit-the-housing-market-recovery/

Great article.  Detailed.

Telling the world lending ain't happening as previously. Luvvly jubbly.

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4 hours ago, captainb said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/press-centre/release-of-pent-up-demand-leads-to-busiest-ever-day-as-more-home-movers-enter-market/

Rightmove still talking up the market. Make of it what you will. 

Yet to see evidence of sellers accepting 10 % or 20% off in london anyway. No idea about South Wales 

Funnily enough, this message appeared when I checked some sold prices on Rightmove:

Quote

House Prices in BN1 6HR

Properties in BN1 6HR had an overall average price of £295,500 over the last year.

Overall, sold prices in BN1 6HR over the last year were 10% down on the previous year and 12% down on the 2017 peak of £337,637.

I think this feature is new(ish).

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Has anyone had an offer accepted / seriously considered at 20% off asking yet?

Am really not seeing anything resembling a crash (yet) in London and spent this afternoon talking to EA and viewing a couple of properties. 

Still of the view we will have to wait till winter earliest once the crutches run out. We will see

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1 minute ago, captainb said:

Has anyone had an offer accepted / seriously considered at 20% off asking yet?

Am really not seeing anything resembling a crash (yet) in London and spent this afternoon talking to EA and viewing a couple of properties. 

Still of the view we will have to wait till winter earliest once the crutches run out. We will see

Not yet. This article seems to reflect the current prices in Nottinghamshire. With offers still being made over asking. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.realhomes.com/amp/news/house-prices-where-to-sell-in-2020-and-where-to-wait-for-the-market-to-improve

I hope to see things changing later on in the year. 

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1 minute ago, fatspanner said:

Not yet. This article seems to reflect the current prices in Nottinghamshire. With offers still being made over asking. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.realhomes.com/amp/news/house-prices-where-to-sell-in-2020-and-where-to-wait-for-the-market-to-improve

I hope to see things changing later on in the year. 

Thanks. That correlates with what i have been seeing today.

Prices roughly what they were pre-CV, with enough buyers that expectation from sellers is we will wait close till close to asking.

EA were saying well, its on the market for £525k, the vendor may consider £499k if you are lucky, but its only just come up and viewings have been strong yadda yadda.

Basically there was no vibe (yet) of desperation that they wouldn't get a offer close to asking. 

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I still don't think the vast majority really understand the seriousness of what's coming down the line. Plenty of friends of friends still splashing out while furloughed. Including a brand new car, jacuzzis and garden make overs. Until people start to feel the pinch and furlough winds up I think things will remain the same. 

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1 hour ago, captainb said:

Am really not seeing anything resembling a crash (yet) in London and spent this afternoon talking to EA and viewing a couple of properties.

No reason at all why you would.  Yet.

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1 hour ago, Killer Bunny said:

No reason at all why you would.  Yet.

Agreed.

I doubt you will see much sign of it until the late autumn anyway once furlough ends. And we may of course see more government 'help' in the budget - probably funded by cutting pension tax relief for those mugs and idiots who bother saving for the future!

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London's been declining slowly for at least a year, maybe two. But it's been gradual. No signs of capitulation just yet, but you feel that something could happen, perhaps with a catalyst of unemployment.

The dynamics of the whole thing are interesting. To me, anyone not at the top of the food chain in London basically has to compromise. People live in areas they can afford. 

Falling prices could be like a game of dominoes. A price fall for a house in a nice area decreases the price of a similar house in a nearby not nice area. This may also spiral out into the commuter towns. Why pay shedloads for a train ticket when you could buy somewhere in a zone etc.

Some suburbs have obvious appeal but there are places like Harlow where a house costs £300k for no good reason. It isn't so far away that outer London zone houses will reach this type of price. At the moment those places are few and poor like Dagenham but the number of places should hopefully increase.

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On 31/05/2020 at 19:42, gruffydd said:

An estate agent told me the price level was already 10-20% down on asking price... and this is with furlough and the rest of the cash hurled at the economy by Sunak. What happens when mass redundancies kick in at the end of the summer? Pretty obvious isn't it. 

In my experience, 'asking' prices are just that. They can ask but they won't get. When I was hunting Jan/Feb, 99% of houses were 20-30% above the land registry figure that they should have been, taking the previous sale prices adjusted for the land registry figures of current value. Agents are just putting them on for extra above and hoping they will get it. Not any more. This doesn't always work, as the previous price paid could have been over the odds, ie new build or 2007 prices, but more fool them. That is not our problem. But its harder to bat the price down.

I went in chain free offered 8k below asking. Woman seller rejected the offer, she wanted me to come up 3K she wouldn't accept less. I walked away. Bet she wishes she wasn't so greedy now. House must still be sitting empty.

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3 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

In my experience, 'asking' prices are just that. They can ask but they won't get. When I was hunting Jan/Feb, 99% of houses were 20-30% above the land registry figure that they should have been, taking the previous sale prices adjusted for the land registry figures of current value. Agents are just putting them on for extra above and hoping they will get it. Not any more. This doesn't always work, as the previous price paid could have been over the odds, ie new build or 2007 prices, but more fool them. That is not our problem. But its harder to bat the price down.

I went in chain free offered 8k below asking. Woman seller rejected the offer, she wanted me to come up 3K she wouldn't accept less. I walked away. Bet she wishes she wasn't so greedy now. House must still be sitting empty.

Can you find the property on Rightmove and keep us posted! Thanks

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11 hours ago, fatspanner said:

I still don't think the vast majority really understand the seriousness of what's coming down the line. Plenty of friends of friends still splashing out while furloughed. Including a brand new car, jacuzzis and garden make overs. Until people start to feel the pinch and furlough winds up I think things will remain the same. 

From takeaway to homemade cat food curry this October.

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6 hours ago, simon2 said:

London's been declining slowly for at least a year, maybe two. But it's been gradual. No signs of capitulation just yet, but you feel that something could happen, perhaps with a catalyst of unemployment.

The dynamics of the whole thing are interesting. To me, anyone not at the top of the food chain in London basically has to compromise. People live in areas they can afford. 

Falling prices could be like a game of dominoes. A price fall for a house in a nice area decreases the price of a similar house in a nearby not nice area. This may also spiral out into the commuter towns. Why pay shedloads for a train ticket when you could buy somewhere in a zone etc.

Some suburbs have obvious appeal but there are places like Harlow where a house costs £300k for no good reason. It isn't so far away that outer London zone houses will reach this type of price. At the moment those places are few and poor like Dagenham but the number of places should hopefully increase.

What do you mean by declining, fewer people living there, fewer people physically working there, fewer people investing there?.....I agree that those who keep two well paid jobs in a household or don't need a job be it retired or independant means no debt or rent to pay will have little impact......when many lose their jobs perhaps the job no longer exists, perhaps they might have to retrain, take something on that is lower paid it will have a huge impact to families.....the difference between the better off and the not very well off will become ever more visible....fewer jobs will mean fewer people with the ability to get a mortgage even with a large deposit.....more defaults on rent payments.....?

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On 31/05/2020 at 19:42, gruffydd said:

An estate agent told me the price level was already 10-20% down on asking price... and this is with furlough and the rest of the cash hurled at the economy by Sunak. What happens when mass redundancies kick in at the end of the summer? Pretty obvious isn't it. 

Selling prices were already down 10-20% off the initial asking price, that's why the right move index is higher than any other price index

You need to be starting at 50% off and work your way up

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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1 hour ago, winkie said:

What do you mean by declining, fewer people living there, fewer people physically working there, fewer people investing there?.....I agree that those who keep two well paid jobs in a household or don't need a job be it retired or independant means no debt or rent to pay will have little impact......when many lose their jobs perhaps the job no longer exists, perhaps they might have to retrain, take something on that is lower paid it will have a huge impact to families.....the difference between the better off and the not very well off will become ever more visible....fewer jobs will mean fewer people with the ability to get a mortgage even with a large deposit.....more defaults on rent payments.....?

Declining prices I mean.

The slide has been noticeable, around 10% average.

The thing is, because of house buying schemes some of the not very well off have managed to punch above their weight in the property ladder. So I think these sort of things will be the first to fall.

Anyone buying an expensive place with HTB in 2015 or 2016 will be coming up to the 5-year period now where the equity loan repayment kicks in. It is hard to see how large-scale unemployment will not change things.

Said on another thread I think the area East of Canning Town out towards Beckton will be interesting to watch.... poor transport links and lots of overpriced new builds near the river, also reduced employment in Canary Wharf.

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1 hour ago, simon2 said:

Declining prices I mean.

The slide has been noticeable, around 10% average.

The thing is, because of house buying schemes some of the not very well off have managed to punch above their weight in the property ladder. So I think these sort of things will be the first to fall.

Anyone buying an expensive place with HTB in 2015 or 2016 will be coming up to the 5-year period now where the equity loan repayment kicks in. It is hard to see how large-scale unemployment will not change things.

Said on another thread I think the area East of Canning Town out towards Beckton will be interesting to watch.... poor transport links and lots of overpriced new builds near the river, also reduced employment in Canary Wharf.

Many have bought new build HTB because that is the only property they could get help in buying.......they may of paid a premium up front in the terms of the price they paid, the loss to them selling it on may well be greater for them.;)

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14 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

 

Agreed.

I doubt you will see much sign of it until the late autumn anyway once furlough ends. And we may of course see more government 'help' in the budget - probably funded by cutting pension tax relief for those mugs and idiots who bother saving for the future!

I've said, in I Told You, September - at earliest - more likely Oct or Nov.

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4 hours ago, simon2 said:

Declining prices I mean.

The slide has been noticeable, around 10% average.

The thing is, because of house buying schemes some of the not very well off have managed to punch above their weight in the property ladder. So I think these sort of things will be the first to fall.

Anyone buying an expensive place with HTB in 2015 or 2016 will be coming up to the 5-year period now where the equity loan repayment kicks in. It is hard to see how large-scale unemployment will not change things.

Said on another thread I think the area East of Canning Town out towards Beckton will be interesting to watch.... poor transport links and lots of overpriced new builds near the river, also reduced employment in Canary Wharf.

Yes. The DLR is far from the dream.

Also having worked in Canary Wharf the last place i ever wanted to live was Canary Wharf.

On the weekend you are not even in soulless Canary Wharf but Canning Town. Not ideal.

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On 01/06/2020 at 16:11, 12fixer said:

This is the valleys then? which is already low prices compared to cities.

The South West (just west of the Valleys - the last valley in the west really) - not inexpensive these days. 

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So the effects of the stimulus coming online won’t help the reckless this time?  The last crisis I remember I lambasted friends in debt and they came out on top through massive inflation of property prices.  

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Jo Jingree, mortgage adviser at Mortgage Confidence 

A couple of my clients had mortgage valuations done prior to lockdown and subsequently, homebuyers surveys done more recently on the same properties and valuations have come in lower by five or ten per cent.  

It is not always clear whether this is due to the cost of repairs to the property, but I think surveyors are predicting market values will have fallen in light of Covid–19.

In one case the seller has accepted the price reduction and in another the seller is adamant that they will accept no reduction, so there have been mixed outcomes.  

In a more extreme example I have a client who had a sale agreed pre–lockdown at £415,000 and a week into lockdown, the buyer asked for a 28 per cent reduction in price so the client was forced to put the property back on the market.  

I think this is an example an of an investor taking advantage of the difficult and unusual circumstances and I think my client was right to re-market in this scenario. 

'

'

One surveyor who services a lot of buy-to-let lenders came back last week to a backlog of 6,000. They are one week into clearing that and they’ve probably got another three weeks to go.  

I think it will be towards the end of June that we will see these results of valuations.

I suspect there will be some down valuations so the purchaser might use that to renegotiate from their original position.

This can be because they are aware of the general feeling around the economy. Especially where is a lot of talk of an impending recession and the effect that may have on the housing market. 

We deal predominantly with landlords buying investments and whenever they can see an opportunity to improve their investment, they will do that.

 

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/your-community/2020/05/27/where-people-have-renegotiated-sales-its-around-five-per-cent-marketwatch/

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On 01/06/2020 at 19:14, Will! said:

Funnily enough, this message appeared when I checked some sold prices on Rightmove:

I think this feature is new(ish).

Prices have been falling in Sussex for quite a while. I looked on Zoopla or something similar and found that in most areas of Sussex since late 2016 prices have already slipped 10%. I think another 20-25% is baked in now. I am seeing a number of price drops on my watch list. Panic won’t set in until October November though...I expect monthly drops of 3-5% for 2-3 months at the back of this year.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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