How many unemployed by 1st Jan 2022?

[24gray24]

Polling how much of a bounce back do people really expect?

Is it back to normal pretty quickly, or is the new normal tumbleweed blowing past boarded up shops?

It's the unstoppable force of world slowdown plus historic high debt versus the immovable object of government determination to avoid a meltdown. 

Any guesses? Terrible deflation of the everything bubble or terrible inflation of everything prices?  

[PeanutButter]

How many unemployed by then on this forum too...

[Fromage Frais]

Ask me in July.

If pubs and hotels open early July then people will muddle through in my industry in the hope of a decent August.

If not fully open or onerous covid secure rules that make hotels and accommodation unviable....then summer is pretty much cancelled.

8 million visitors and 60k plus employed in Norfolk tourism alone.

Often young often low skilled and with seasonal contracts etc.

With no carrot of summer then it's fulough to dole immediately for probably millions.

Ominously premier inn planning for September and they most likely have contacts/lobby folk.

 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Fromage Frais

[regprentice]

57 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Polling how much of a bounce back do people really expect?

Is it back to normal pretty quickly, or is the new normal tumbleweed blowing past boarded up shops?

My friend runs a shoe shop. Shes been told it will be one person in the shop at a time when they reopen. any other customers waiting need to stand in a queue outside 2m apart 

I can't see customers putting up with the wait, I can't see it being a pleasant shopping experience in a goldfish bowl with a queue of irate shoppers staring at you, and the idea of window shopping, or at least browsing through a store to see if anything catches your fancy, will be completely gone. 

Also the shops cut to 1 member of staff, so she doesn't know how she's expected to manage the queue (into a large covered shopping mall) and serve customers simultaneously. 

[24gray24]

23 minutes ago, regprentice said:

My friend runs a shoe shop. Shes been told it will be one person in the shop at a time when they reopen. any other customers waiting need to stand in a queue outside 2m apart 

I can't see customers putting up with the wait. 

Effectively that is " customers by appointment only". 

Puts a helluva premium on window display and clientele of regulars. 

Pick a number, any number: how many unemployed?  

[regprentice]

2 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Effectively that is " customers by appointment only". 

Puts a helluva premium on window display and clientele of regulars. 

Pick a number, any number: how many unemployed?  

Was going to say 4.5mn...but there are 10mn of furlough across the two schemes (including the self employed) and it's slightly vicious that despite starting 3 months later the self employed scheme ends at the same time as the permies one (Iirc) 

Suppose the real question is how many unique people are furloughed, i k ow a few people with 2 or 3 jobs. It does seem to be the way people have to work now most 'low wage' employers only offer 16 hours a week

[24gray24]

34 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Ask me in July.

If pubs and hotels open early July then people will muddle through in my industry in the hope of a decent August.

 

We'll be back in lockdown by then, courtesy of cummings. 

But  the upside is, next year, it looks like everyone will be holidaying in the UK.  

So it's bonanza for bognor; benidorm bust. 

[24gray24]

7 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Was going to say 4.5mn...but there are 10mn of furlough across the two schemes (including the self employed) and it's slightly vicious that despite starting 3 months later the self employed scheme ends at the same time as the permies one (Iirc) 

Suppose the real question is how many unique people are furloughed, i k ow a few people with 2 or 3 jobs. It does seem to be the way people have to work now most 'low wage' employers only offer 16 hours a week

10 million at risk, so a good percentage out of work once furlough ends. Something like that? 

The figure that popped into my mind was 3 million. A bit worse than the first thatcher recession. 

Neither of us believe in a v shaped recovery,  clearly. 

[Patfig]

as you have picked some numbers why isnt there a >3million?

[shlomo]

5 Million, i was speaking to a friend who is driver for Yodel, and he says they have never been so busy, i am not sure retail shops will work as well as before. I think so many sales will just move on line forever

[winkie]

What does anyone mean by unemployed?.....unemployed working for others to earn money?.......many are very invaluably employed no money/cash/fiat/numbers on a statement passes their lips nor enters their hands, continually working, never stop.....

[The Spaniard]

To answer the OP:

Enough for the population to welcome UBI in one form or another.

Our creeping dependence upon the state will have accelerated sharply and become normalized.

Edited May 30, 2020 by The Spaniard

[MARTINX9]

2 hours ago, shlomo said:

5 Million, i was speaking to a friend who is driver for Yodel, and he says they have never been so busy, i am not sure retail shops will work as well as before. I think so many sales will just move on line forever

I expect there was a massive one off purchase of office chairs, tables, pc screens. laptops etc to support home working in April. Maybe even air cons for the hot summer days.

Once you are set up there is little repeat business for those.

[shlomo]

3 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

I expect there was a massive one off purchase of office chairs, tables, pc screens. laptops etc to support home working in April. Maybe even air cons for the hot summer days.

Once you are set up there is little repeat business for those.

We will probably not need many immigrants anymore.

[Killer Bunny]

Why not >3m option?

[regprentice]

16 hours ago, shlomo said:

5 Million, i was speaking to a friend who is driver for Yodel, and he says they have never been so busy, i am not sure retail shops will work as well as before. I think so many sales will just move on line forever

Your friend will almost certainly be 'self employed' in a job such as yodel driver.

https://yodelopportunities.co.uk/drivers/self-employed-drivers/

Thats all part of the slow erosion of employees rights.

I think that's an important factor for the furlough schemes, for the unemployment numbers, and for the kind of 'new' self employed piecemeal jobs that's seem to be coming online to replace the 'old' jobs. 

The employment stats are useless, we need to know how many people have more than one job, how many people are downgrading their rights as they move from job to job. 

13 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

I expect there was a massive one off purchase of office chairs, tables, pc screens. laptops etc to support home working in April. Maybe even air cons for the hot summer days.

Once you are set up there is little repeat business for those.

Most people have those things if they are working from home already. I'm not sure the Majority of people have the space to start setting up an office at home, I certainly don't and I've been pissed off about all the boomers at work boasting about their family rooms, office room, man cave, guest rooms etc. 

[winkie]

17 hours ago, regprentice said:

My friend runs a shoe shop. Shes been told it will be one person in the shop at a time when they reopen. any other customers waiting need to stand in a queue outside 2m apart 

I can't see customers putting up with the wait, I can't see it being a pleasant shopping experience in a goldfish bowl with a queue of irate shoppers staring at you, and the idea of window shopping, or at least browsing through a store to see if anything catches your fancy, will be completely gone. 

Also the shops cut to 1 member of staff, so she doesn't know how she's expected to manage the queue (into a large covered shopping mall) and serve customers simultaneously. 

That will not work, one thing queuing in the warm weather, will people queue outside when wet and cold, will people queue full stop, will people want to go out to shop with all the time restricting regulations and rules, total nightmare not exactly a relaxing pastime more like a burden best avoided, a two hour trip to the shops could easily turn into double that, think of the parking costs  .....also people will chat when waiting in line helping the dispersal of droplets into the air.....what about all the different shoes people touch and try on for fitting.......might as well order half a dozen different styles and sizes online.....walk about at leisure at home and send five back postage paid.

[regprentice]

On 30/05/2020 at 16:43, 24gray24 said:

10 million at risk, so a good percentage out of work once furlough ends. Something like that? 

The figure that popped into my mind was 3 million. A bit worse than the first thatcher recession. 

Neither of us believe in a v shaped recovery,  clearly. 

How long is a v shaped recession. 

I'd a presentation at work a few weeks ago that stated that, excluding the great depression, the average recession lasts 11 months. 

V shaped implies a short sharp shock to me, but you need two consecutive nagative quarters to have a recession so I would suggest a v shaped recession is 2, maybe 3, negative quarters. It doesn't seem realistic to have growth again by Xmas. 

[Roman Roady]

What are we all accepting as the current figures?

[reddog]

My guess is above 3 million, but below 5 million.

 

Another prediction is whatever happens, there will be no second lock down, the most extreme they might get is regional Lockdowns (probably re branded as smart Lockdowns), but even that would only happen in very extreme circumstances.

 

I bet Sunak is deeply regretting initiating furlough now.

Edited June 1, 2020 by reddog

[regprentice]

33 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

What are we all accepting as the current figures?

ONS showed unemployment at the end of March as being 3.9% with that being 1.348mn people so I would call that the 'current figure' ie the number before the spike in unemployment. (the total figure is a rolling 12 month avg, the percentage is actual, both are seasonally adjusted) 

So my prediction of a 4.5mn figure earlier in the thread would put unemployment at 13%...which is higher than any time on that ons sample going back to 1970.... But... Its not much higher than unemployment in mid April 1984 which was 11.9% (3.3mn people at that time) 

Looking at the latest graph for the USA though it doesn't look unrealistic... Unemployment there has spiked from around 4% to 14.7%.

In the UK an unemployment percentage of 14.7% would give you roughly 5.08Mn unemployed 

ONS publishes the unemployment stats for the quarter April to June on the 15th of this month... Though we will probably have to wait for the furlough wind down to start seeing a 'real' unemployed number. 

Edited June 1, 2020 by regprentice

[Roman Roady]

24 minutes ago, regprentice said:

ONS showed unemployment at the end of March as being 3.9% with that being 1.348mn people so I would call that the 'current figure' ie the number before the spike in unemployment. (the total figure is a rolling 12 month avg, the percentage is actual, both are seasonally adjusted) 

So my prediction of a 4.5mn figure earlier in the thread would put unemployment at 13%...which is higher than any time on that ons sample going back to 1970.... But... Its not much higher than unemployment in mid April 1984 which was 11.9% (3.3mn people at that time) 

Looking at the latest graph for the USA though it doesn't look unrealistic... Unemployment there has spiked from around 4% to 14.7%.

In the UK an unemployment percentage of 14.7% would give you roughly 5.08Mn unemployed 

ONS publishes the unemployment stats for the quarter April to June on the 15th of this month... Though we will probably have to wait for the furlough wind down to start seeing a 'real' unemployed number. 

Yup...I will go with no less than 5M by years end...that may be conservative but I too feel that the furlough scheme will hide the true horror until well into next year.

[Roman Roady]

27 minutes ago, reddog said:

My guess is above 3 million, but below 5 million.

 

Another prediction is whatever happens, there will be no second lock down, the most extreme they might get is regional Lockdowns (probably re branded as smart Lockdowns), but even that would only happen in very extreme circumstances.

 

I bet Sunak is deeply regretting initiating furlough now.

First bold point, I too think this and have posted as such several times in these hallowed pages.

Second...not sure. If this scheme had not been put in place WTF would have been going on in "lockdown" if there had even been such a thing.

 

I think the last 2.5 months have been made up on the hoof in a state of panic that started with the Imperial College presentation to Boris in mid/late March.

My thoughts on the future will be based on the Govt "managing" mass infection whilst keeping us as productive as possible...they will WANT the Nightingale hospitals to be used to the max...when the NHS is overwhelmed we will see partial lockdowns.

No idea futher on than that.