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I told you.


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I also said on Twitter and in my public reports, from 2013 - the day after HTB announced - that prices would rise for a few years.  I was long gone from this site.

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11 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

That said, long term, will all the money that had been printed and people getting back into work, expect them to rise to even higher levels.

Printing brings inflation.  Don't mention Japan.  Very different.   It starts later this year and continues for many years.  Higher borrowing rates.

People getting back to work?  1.5-3m more unemployment.

 

Read the OP.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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2 hours ago, frederico said:

Hi, clapping is waste of time and energy, it is being used as a psychological tool to make people think they can help and in some way contribute. It distracts from the details and any reality. 

The reality is that people's lives have been turned on their heads, by government and scientific negligence. 

Not only that, but the secretive superpower that let the thing out treats us all with contempt for daring to question what is going on.

We should be refusing to trade with China until they get their humans rights, welfare and democracy in order. 

This of course will never happen because the billionaires make money out of slave labour and lending us money to buy the products. 

There are very good well meaning people around and they are the heart of our society, people working in the NHS do amazing very arduous work. Clapping isn't going to feed their families. 

That’s why I have also donated. It doesn’t have to be one or the other does it? But if some people cannot donate then it’s still nice that they can show their appreciation for those putting their life’s on the line. I agree with you 110% re government negligence and hope one day we see them in the dock.  

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5 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

Printing brings inflation.  Don't mention Japan.  Very different.   It starts later this year and continues for many years.  Higher borrowing rates.

People getting back to work?  1.5-3m more unemployment.

 

Read the OP.

Why are you expecting people not to return to work? That's not realistic, the vast majority of people will adapt.

People who don't return to work, will do so due to their circumstances, which allows it (pensions and savings). Unless they want to bring themselves down the social ladder.

Work which cannot now be done in the work environment, can be done in the home environment.

Why do you assume borrowing rates will be higher, this will effectively punish individuals whom have bought over the past 5 years, particularly help to buy? Why would the Cons choose to alienate their voters?

I think more realistically, we will see rates remaining low, with extra props to prevent a huge crash. Whilst mass printing continues to inflate away debt.

Wage rises will occur as more money is floating in the economy, especially for those within the free market. I.e. electricians.

In addition as our understanding develops so will treatments, leading to a more optimistic outlook of the future.

History tends to repeat itself, 2008 1-2 years of lower prices, followed by an increase in house prices and then significantly above the original prices.

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42 minutes ago, AThirdWay said:

Are there many left? The majority cashed out of ours over the last 10 years, moved their inflated transfer valuation into a drawdown....

Very few final salary schemes where you can still build up pension - but pensioners can’t cash out, and at most half of deferred pensioners have cashed out in the schemes I work in, so most of them are still going strong 

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13 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

History tends to repeat itself, 2008 1-2 years of lower prices, followed by an increase in house prices and then significantly above the original prices.

I think you will find that thinking History Repeats Itself is fraught with problems of its own.

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1 hour ago, Killer Bunny said:

I also said on Twitter and in my public reports, from 2013 - the day after HTB announced - that prices would rise for a few years.  I was long gone from this site.

I cannot say much about 2009-2014 ish, buying was not an option for me for various reasons, Number one reason though was ploughing money into my business. But when 2015 came it became an option, I sat down and did the calculations and thought f*** that, I had not worked my socks off to get no better than what a lifestyle welfare ponce on HB could get for doing nothing. 

I ruled a property crash out for the next few years after 2015 as very unlikely unless a black swan arrived, though not because of  sound fundamentals, just that governments in the UK had built up for an All In everything is reliant on property and debt society, not 1% of me  though thought it wouldn't crash at some point

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1 hour ago, Killer Bunny said:

I also said on Twitter and in my public reports, from 2013 - the day after HTB announced - that prices would rise for a few years.  I was long gone from this site.

I think this is just the next leg down in a secular house price bear market that started in 2007. Markets never move in straight lines, so I'm told.

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3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What they usually mean is we quite liked the high standard of living our exploitation of the rest of the world enabled but we are not so keen on letting others have their share.

#itsherturn

#believewomen

#refugeeswelcome

#metoo

Right?

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1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

Why are you expecting people not to return to work? That's not realistic, the vast majority of people will adapt.

 

Why do you assume borrowing rates will be higher, this will effectively punish individuals whom have bought over the past 5 years, particularly help to buy?

 

 

10s of 000s of company bankruptcies.  Read the OP.

Oil will soar for years.  Printing trns for zero economic output is also hugely inflationary. Rates will rise as nothing to do with what govt or central bank.  Borrowing rates are based on long term govt bond yields.

As if anyone will care about stupid buyers/investors

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10 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I think this is just the next leg down in a secular house price bear market that started in 2007. Markets never move in straight lines, so I'm told.

I sort of agree with that, nothing was really repaired post 2007/08. The only thing that really happened were the poorest were hurt more then they were already and had what little they had taken away from them by cheering millionaires.

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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If you want the person with the real brains seek out Durham Boy, he's pretty much predicted this exactly as it is unfolding.

No-one predicted what was unfolding and if they did it is because blind luck will always mean someone is correct.

Here is a tactic to find master coin toss predictors:

  1. Start with 10 million predictors.
  2. Toss a coin and all predictors must tell you what it will be, heads or tails.
  3. Remove the losers who can't predict correctly.
  4. Repeat from step 2, 20 more times
  5. You have now narrowed down to the elite few coin toss predictors. You should listen to them for your coin toss predictions, they correctly predicted 20 in a row!
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5 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

No-one predicted what was unfolding and if they did it is because blind luck will always mean someone is correct.

Here is a tactic to find master coin toss predictors:

  1. Start with 10 million predictors.
  2. Toss a coin and all predictors must tell you what it will be, heads or tails.
  3. Remove the losers who can't predict correctly.
  4. Repeat from step 2, 20 more times
  5. You have now narrowed down to the elite few coin toss predictors. You should listen to them for your coin toss predictions, they correctly predicted 20 in a row!

That will be about 10 financial geniuses variously recommending bitcoin, highly leveraged property or obscure mining companies and tech startups.

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29 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I think this is just the next leg down in a secular house price bear market that started in 2007. Markets never move in straight lines, so I'm told.

Look at the chart on the front page ('real house prices'), we're under the moving average and have been for a while (pre-virus) with a sustained downward path so as long as we're below that average then prices will fall and I think the virus will just accelerate what was going to happen anyway...

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5 minutes ago, Warlord said:

Look at the chart on the front page ('real house prices'), we're under the moving average and have been for a while (pre-virus) with a sustained downward path so as long as we're below that average then prices will fall and I think the virus will just accelerate what was going to happen anyway...

Have you noticed how the trolls, EAs etc think real terms is a made up term? They're so dense it's frightening.

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4 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Have you noticed how the trolls, EAs etc think real terms is a made up term? They're so dense it's frightening.

I wouldn't expect anything less from a  VI. I do suspect some of the  trolls who argue the HPC is not going to happen or try and laugh at posters have got jobs in the property industry or something. Nothing surprises me. I have reported a few anyway.

 

 

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18 hours ago, Si1 said:

The way coronavirus-19 works seems remarkably well attuned to its success and its targets.

We have a ready served international mega-population of young adults living cheek by jowel in shared houses, factory-dormitories, which we intuitively know is not healthy.

So the virus spreads via healthy youngish people sharing living space and also travelling a lot at all scales. It cross infects by giving these people a hacking cough for a week or two without killing them. That is how the virus survives and multiplies. I'd suggest it has evolved this reproductive strategy.

If someone north of this age range catches it then, since they are not the main vectors for the disease, it doesn't matter if the virus kills them, so it hasn't evolved to keep them alive, no evolutionary pressure for it to. Hence deaths of the elderly from it are incidental to the virus' spread.

So it wasn't healthy for the metropolitan ideological elite to enslave several generations in sh1tty living conditions under the pretence that actually things are better this way by some twisted measure.

 As has been said, they claim to be airliner pilots of the economy. If they were pilots they'd all be dead. Too many spinning plates. Too much wackamole. Too much fragility.

Samples from Wuhan in December show it was 'pre-adapted' to human and an infected human brought it into the wet market, it wasn't a zoonotic event from animal to man. When samples were compared from Dec to Mar, no changes occurred either, which isn't what you would expect as selective pressure would mean the virus would evolve after jumping to man from an animal species. Evolutionary genomic analysis comparing SARS-CoV-2 to SARS-CoV-1 show SARS-CoV-2 was at the same stage of evolution, i.e. well adapted to humans, specifically it's spike protein, whereas SARS-CoV-1 (SARS) only reached that stage at the end of it's pandemic, after passing through many humans and undergoing selective pressure. Now how could SARS-CoV-2 be pre-adapted to infect humans ....

Edited by petetong
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59 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

No-one predicted what was unfolding and if they did it is because blind luck will always mean someone is correct.

Here is a tactic to find master coin toss predictors:

  1. Start with 10 million predictors.
  2. Toss a coin and all predictors must tell you what it will be, heads or tails.
  3. Remove the losers who can't predict correctly.
  4. Repeat from step 2, 20 more times
  5. You have now narrowed down to the elite few coin toss predictors. You should listen to them for your coin toss predictions, they correctly predicted 20 in a row!

Don't get me wrong, no one predicted a collapse would come because of a virus but several people have predicted the effects of the next crisis ( whatever that was ) .

Durham Born got it spot on.

 

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Meanwhile, in the CRE world...

Sellers are currently willing to concede discounts of around 5%, while bidders are hoping for about 20% off pre-pandemic prices, said Charles Hewlett, managing director at Rclco Real Estate Advisors. That estimated gap, which is likely wider in specific cases, has put a freeze on deals.

"likely wider"... LOL ?

 

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12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Don't get me wrong, no one predicted a collapse would come because of a virus but several people have predicted the effects of the next crisis ( whatever that was ) .

Durham Born got it spot on.

 

What a lot of people predicted was that the UK economy was so screwed up and had so many plates spinning that it would just take an inevitable arriving black swan to show the economy for what it was. It's like a road runner cartoon where there is a one Ton weight suspended by a one Ton one ounce breaking strain rope over some seed/bait, yes it will initially support the weight, but you just know for a fact that it will break at some point.

People are not claiming they predicted a virus they predicted an economy that could not survive a virus or any other black swan event

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