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I told you.


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22 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

Not officially but many anecdotes.  And importantly, the media is softening people up for what's coming / happening.

Yeah that I can see. I just have to convince the missus that postponement is the right course of action.

We are in South Manchester and want to keep living here. Her current stance is that Didsbury is such a prime location that prices wont fall by much. This was certainly true in 2008-2009. Its just kinda stalled then carried on skyrocketting. Granted, the shittier places fell a little, but who wants to live in those.

My point is that while that might be true relative to other locations, a 30% drop WILL affect prices here and given they are sky high, that is still a big drop, even if it ends up being half the national average.

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11 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Yeah that I can see. I just have to convince the missus that postponement is the right course of action.

We are in South Manchester and want to keep living here. Her current stance is that Didsbury is such a prime location that prices wont fall by much. This was certainly true in 2008-2009. Its just kinda stalled then carried on skyrocketting. Granted, the shittier places fell a little, but who wants to live in those.

My point is that while that might be true relative to other locations, a 30% drop WILL affect prices here and given they are sky high, that is still a big drop, even if it ends up being half the national average.

I was posting in the South Manchester thread, but I tend to agree with your missus. Stock is in such short supply in the few desirable areas that I don't think we'll see prices go down in areas where people want to live. If you're close to a tram / village in Didders, Chorlton, Sale, Alty, etc you might see a nominal drop of a few %, but nothing proper. Too many coiled springs. 

Drops will probably happen further afield, and in places that have been increasing because these areas have become so unaffordable, maybe Urmstons surge will revert for example

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33 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

It was a genuine question, as a positive answer would have gone some way in explaining some of the pro HPI posts you've made over the years.

I'd be interested to know which of my posts you would regard as "pro HPI"?  I certainly am not in favour of unaffordable housing and HPI.

However, I am aware that I hold some opinions that are unusual on this board: for example I agreed with the interest rate cuts, bailing out of banks and QE in 2007/8 as a means to save the economy.  This has resulted in HPI, but the HPI is a negative side effect, not why I supported the action, or something I support in isolation. 

I do own a house (with a mortgage) that I bought around 9 years ago, but I certainly have never engaged professionally in any activities connected with the UK housing market such as buying/selling houses, or BTL etc.  My interest in the forum is largely because (1) I am an Economics graduate, and enjoy the economic discussions and (2) I occasionally learn something helpful (for example, I have some NS&I Index-Linked bonds that I bought in 2011 that I would never have known existed but for this website).

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4 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

Drops will probably happen further afield, and in places that have been increasing because these areas have become so unaffordable, maybe Urmstons surge will revert for example

Whalley range, parts of Chorlton with crappier public transport links spring to mind....

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17 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

If covid does result in a HPC, I doubt whether to many long term posters on this site it will feel like much of a victory.

Of course.  Just a tiny joke.

C19 hasn't caused this crash or Recession.  Merely clarified what was there. in spades, for a long time.

Let's see how far down it goes.  It may yet be a delightful surprise and we will be able to capitalise on it.

 

Remember, 1989 to 1994/5 fell only 15% Nominal but 35% Real.

In Spring 1994 a 5 bed det in a lovely road went for £150k, round my way.  It had been valued in 1989 at £300k.  End 2019: £900k.

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Just now, Killer Bunny said:

C19 hasn't caused this crash or Recession.  Merely clarified what was there. in spades, for a long time.

+1000.  Anyone keeping an eye on the situation could see across the financial landscape, things were ugly.  Retail apocalypse for example was well and truly in motion prior to any of this.

C19 just brings to their natural conclusions, faster.

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19 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Her current stance is that Didsbury is such a prime location that prices wont fall by much. This was certainly true in 2008-2009.

 

Not true in 2008.  Just you didn't have the data as we do now.  Prices fell ~20%

 

Ask her what was the price in 1994.  Then tell her to stop being stupid.  If prices can rise...

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1 hour ago, richmondtw said:

No they have not

And you are a financial expert - who has been paying rent for years? hmmmmmmmmmmm

No to both?

Seriously, I am not for one minute suggesting people take life and financial decisions based on my views. And I will buy you a pint or even 10 if you provided any evidence that an economic crash along with a property crash was now NOT inevitable, would stop me wasting time. 

Very very unlikely though 

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1 minute ago, Killer Bunny said:

Not true in 2008.  Just you didn't have the data as we do now.  Prices fell ~20%

 

Ask her what was the price in 1994.  Then tell her to stop being stupid.  If prices can rise...

Didsbury was a totally different place in 1994. I looked at renting a flat here in 1995 and didn't, because it was such a s'hole! You only have to look at the Midland / Metropolitain to see that. I moved here in 1999 and it was already a radically different place.

Granted this is born of hugely increasing affluence and decent policing (gentrification essentially). Both of which are about to be under threat...

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35 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Yeah that I can see. I just have to convince the missus that postponement is the right course of action.

We are in South Manchester and want to keep living here. Her current stance is that Didsbury is such a prime location that prices wont fall by much. This was certainly true in 2008-2009. Its just kinda stalled then carried on skyrocketting. Granted, the shittier places fell a little, but who wants to live in those.

My point is that while that might be true relative to other locations, a 30% drop WILL affect prices here and given they are sky high, that is still a big drop, even if it ends up being half the national average.

Didsbury did have some falls in 2008. Maybe low volumes, and prices didn't shift upwards from 2009 to early 2013, they stayed dead flat. 2013-early 2014 was a slight opportunity to buy as prices have increased significantly since then. I'm sure Didsbury will fall again - add in the probate sales that will be coming, average age of occupiers in Didsbury & Altrincham is high.

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10 hours ago, Orb said:

2) Digital surveillance. I'm a lorry driver. I've seen dramatic change in the 16 years I've been doing it. Last year I suddenly noticed an inward facing camera filming me for my whole shift (10-15 hours), and my working life has never been the same since. They are abused, and are randomly screened. When my company needs to cull drivers, they do not choose redundancy, they choose to review camera footage until they spot somebody having a vape or eating a sandwich at the wheel, and sack them. Further, we have telematics, forward facing cameras, tachographs, in cab microphones, trackers, and a few other things surveying us and every tiny action is monitored and recorded. If telematics read our driving actions to be outside set parameters (such as a harsh braking incident), the boss receives and email, and we get 'retrained'. It's all a bit 1984. Work now feels like an open prison, and there is much fear and paranoia amongst drivers that was not there just 12 months ago and beyond. There is no joy in the job anymore. In wider society we have smartphones, facial recognition cameras, smarthomes (Echo, smartmeters, etc), ANPR, black boxes on cars, the list is endless. It feels overwhelming to anybody who holds privacy and freedom as a prime value, and a life where every minute action is recorded feels horrific.

 

WTF! that's awful. Drivers were not informed of their plans to do this? do you have a union?

Are there any more 'Traditionally run' haulage firms that might be disgusted at the thought of filming employees that you could go and work for?

I hate the CCTV cameras at self service tills in Asda, your face is shown on a screen right in front of you. Next time I go in, a stealthily applied sticker might be going over that camera lens.

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32 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Didsbury did have some falls in 2008. Maybe low volumes, and prices didn't shift upwards from 2009 to early 2013, they stayed dead flat. 2013-early 2014 was a slight opportunity to buy as prices have increased significantly since then. I'm sure Didsbury will fall again - add in the probate sales that will be coming, average age of occupiers in Didsbury & Altrincham is high.

The oldies are mostly located in one area and even with a halving of prices it would still be a stretch!

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51 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I'd be interested to know which of my posts you would regard as "pro HPI"?  I certainly am not in favour of unaffordable housing and HPI.

However, I am aware that I hold some opinions that are unusual on this board: for example I agreed with the interest rate cuts, bailing out of banks and QE in 2007/8 as a means to save the economy.  This has resulted in HPI, but the HPI is a negative side effect, not why I supported the action, or something I support in isolation. 

I do own a house (with a mortgage) that I bought around 9 years ago, but I certainly have never engaged professionally in any activities connected with the UK housing market such as buying/selling houses, or BTL etc.  My interest in the forum is largely because (1) I am an Economics graduate, and enjoy the economic discussions and (2) I occasionally learn something helpful (for example, I have some NS&I Index-Linked bonds that I bought in 2011 that I would never have known existed but for this website).

The search facility is not good enough for me to find specific posts going back ten years. Perhaps "pro HPI" was a bit strong, but I do have you down (at the back of my mind) as someone who sometimes swims against the tide. I don't recall accusing you of being an EA ten years ago, but if I did, it was probably when you were swimming against the tide. 

I think we agree on annuities though, one of the best decisions I made was to go for an annuity (7.5%), rather than draw down, in 2008. You may have even influenced me to go that way, FP certainly did, for which I thank you both, and I may have influenced your decision to go for NS&I bonds (Guaranteed Growth) which have served me well. 

 

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47 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Ha ha.

Then it transpired that none of the doomsday propagandists - including the OP of this thread - knew anything about economics or finance after all.

 

The most accurate predictions were made by Sibley, TTRTR et al. Anyone who used logical thinking, common sense or looked at fundamentals got it completely wrong. Myself included.

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Where is the actual evidence of a crash, as currently, I can't see any changes in asking prices. 

Although, I can imagine more properties will become available, there also seems alot of demand.

I can foresee a drop in prices, later this year for a period of time. As people lose their jobs and reorganize their lives, this may lead people to make rash decisions selling off at lower prices 5-15%.

That said, long term, will all the money that had been printed and people getting back into work, expect them to rise to even higher levels.

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12 minutes ago, Biggus said:

 

The most accurate predictions were made by Sibley, TTRTR et al. Anyone who used logical thinking, common sense or looked at fundamentals got it completely wrong. Myself included.

Sad but true. People (myself included) underestinated the reliance of the government on the housing market and there determination to keep the plates spinning, or indeed, the banks reliance on a strong housing market to keep them afloat.

That is why we will probably have unlimited printing moving forwards.

Edited by IMHAL
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