Grayphil Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 6 hours ago, Killer Bunny said: Super inflation by 2030 is probable. That's what i was worried about, someone then told me to buy gold, because in 2031 , we will get super duper inflation.. (That's the really bad one, 100% correct guaranteed) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowdedmarket Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 6 hours ago, Killer Bunny said: Super inflation by 2030 is probable. Is that more than hyperinflation? My apologies, I'm not into the maths of banking/stocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twenty Something Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Grayphil said: That's what i was worried about, someone then told me to buy gold, because in 2031 , we will get super duper inflation.. (That's the really bad one, 100% correct guaranteed) Best put my house buying plans on hold until at least the mid 2030's so I can get a super duper deal with my super super duper gold stocks. Reckon the super duper house price crash will have come by then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayphil Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Twenty Something said: Best put my house buying plans on hold until at least the mid 2030's so I can get a super duper deal with my super super duper gold stocks. Reckon the super duper house price crash will have come by then? Exactly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 HPC cancelled (again). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/three-million-hong-kong-residents-eligible-for-uk-citizenship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twenty Something Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Grayphil said: Exactly! Reminds me of this - skip to 1 min in. Inflaaayyytion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 On 18/05/2020 at 17:27, Patfig said: All we need now is Injun to return I miss my buddies from the great purge of 2010. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) Anyone here still remember Erranta? I miss Democorruptcy and FreeTrader. Edited May 30, 2020 by rantnrave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 9 hours ago, Eddie_George said: HPC cancelled (again). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/three-million-hong-kong-residents-eligible-for-uk-citizenship Potential buyers with lot of money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 9 hours ago, Eddie_George said: HPC cancelled (again). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/three-million-hong-kong-residents-eligible-for-uk-citizenship HMO owners and AirBNB will be happy. BTL landlords got another boost. UK population will surpass 70 million mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 On 18/05/2020 at 17:44, Social Justice League said: When this all plays out it will be 70% falls and millions bankrupt. Borrowing funny money from bent banks was always going to end in tears eventually. Ask yourself the question "Did the economy/markets make sense BEFORE the virus hit?" If it could exist in complete opposition to reality a few mere months ago, is it really too much to believe that it could do so now with the addition of literally TRILLIONS of dollars of new printed cash dumped into the system? At least, for a short (relatively speaking) time...... IMO we could well see a colossal 'crack up boom' going on for quite some time (as in, up to a year) before it implodes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, Sour Mash said: Ask yourself the question "Did the economy/markets make sense BEFORE the virus hit?" If it could exist in complete opposition to reality a few mere months ago, is it really too much to believe that it could do so now with the addition of literally TRILLIONS of dollars of new printed cash dumped into the system? At least, for a short (relatively speaking) time...... IMO we could well see a colossal 'crack up boom' going on for quite some time (as in, up to a year) before it implodes I struggle with this. The FTSE100 is still below where it wss 20 years ago.. You can purchase on margin rates of 1% shares that have a 5% divi yield backed by 30 year leases to supermarkets/amazon etc. Im not sure i buy the line equities are massively overpriced.... Even if you dont want to look at leverage, the p/e ratio is below the long term historical average. On this forum people always seem to ignore the cost of credit, which in any leveraged asset particularly housing (but also equities) is a key input Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 11 hours ago, rantnrave said: Anyone here still remember Erranta? I miss Democorruptcy and FreeTrader. It all seems slightly more sane these day. Let us not get too nostalgic. There were plenty of conspiracy theorists, pseudo-intellectual idiots, etc Plenty were convinced that they were amazing people and that a fault with the natural order was all that meant they were not wealthy and respected. The houseprice crash came, just as the graph on the front page predicted, and it did not make everything OK. It seems to have calmed things down a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 The crash came and I went. The crash is back and this time likely sustainable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 11 hours ago, Sour Mash said: IMO we could well see a colossal 'crack up boom' going on for quite some time (as in, up to a year) before it implodes Stocks in multi year bull. Economy toast, as are HPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 10 hours ago, captainb said: I struggle with this. The FTSE100 is still below where it wss 20 years ago.. And THAT is the reason why the multi year bull is here. It's done nothing for 'ever'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 On 30/05/2020 at 12:38, Eddie_George said: HPC cancelled (again). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/three-million-hong-kong-residents-eligible-for-uk-citizenship This is completely the wrong approach to this problem. I believe that war with either China or Russia is inevitable in my lifetime. Being soft with China now is a mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 Who's being soft on China? And what's being soft or hawkish to do with HPs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 You can’t lose wiv pwoperdee... Nationwide Building Society expects house prices to fall 13.8% this year. Mail article Agreed, give or take. It’s got the usual ‘but will come back’ nonsense. Of course, didn’t mention future rising borrowing rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quiet Guy Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 (edited) On 23/05/2020 at 11:31, Killer Bunny said: HPC won't be clear till Sep/Oct/Nov. I said Aug/Sep previously. Someone made me rethink and they are right. That's too early for confirmation, just initial signs. I posted a (kind of) related article in the blog last month:https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2020/04/blog-difficult-times-217407.php There was a discussion in the blog ages ago about what seemed to be a strong negative correlation between house prices and unemployment. I cannot find it now but the poster doing the number crunching observed that the correlation improved if the house price data was time shifted about 18 months back. The idea was that when a household can't pay their bills, they don't capitulate and sell immediately. They run down savings, scrimp, borrow, whatever ... until they are forced to sell or repossessed. My expectation is that the real damage won't become apparent for a least a year. Edited May 31, 2020 by Quiet Guy Incorrect URL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 That is probable. The issue is when an HPC will be apparent. In Q4 probably. Maybe September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Killer Bunny said: Who's being soft on China? And what's being soft or hawkish to do with HPs? The assertion in the post I quoted was that HPs would rise as a result of, up to, 3 million Hong Kong residents potentially coming to the UK because China is clamping down on the 'western freedoms' we left them with when we left Hong Kong in 1997. Would you agree that an influx of 3mn people would go some way to prop up house prices. For this to NOT happen China has to back down and repeal a law its currently putting on the statute books. Doesn't seem likely. From TPTBs perspective this is brilliant, we can close the gates to Europe, take In 3Mm HKers instead, and suddenly you've got a growing population which equals more productivity, house prices on the increase again, and perhaps that Chinese work ethic will rub off on the UK's chavs and neds when they are competing for work with people for whom the UK minimum wage and UK working conditions are like dying and going to heaven. Edited May 31, 2020 by regprentice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, regprentice said: The assertion in the post I quoted was that HPs would rise as a result of, up to, 3 million Hong Kong residents potentially coming to the UK because China is clamping down on the 'western freedoms' we left them with when we left Hong Kong in 1997. Would you agree that an influx of 3mn people would go some way to prop up house prices. F HPs. We must give as many HKers asylum/residence as want it. Yes it will slow down the HPC. Doesn’t alter the massive headwinds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ucnvpe0 Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, Quiet Guy said: I posted a (kind of) related article in the blog last month:https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2020/04/index.php There was a discussion in the blog ages ago about what seemed to be a strong negative correlation between house prices and unemployment. I cannot find it now but the poster doing the number crunching observed that the correlation improved if the house price data was time shifted about 18 months back. The idea was that when a household can't pay their bills, they don't capitulate and sell immediately. They run down savings, scrimp, borrow, whatever ... until they are forced to sell or repossessed. My expectation is that the real damage won't become apparent for a least a year. This is ~18months without the impact of furlough and mortgage holidays. Fair to assume it might take 2 years for the full impact? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quiet Guy Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, ucnvpe0 said: This is ~18months without the impact of furlough and mortgage holidays. Fair to assume it might take 2 years for the full impact? I've had similar thoughts. No doubt the government will try anything to get elected again but but trying to make detailed predictions is unrealistic e.g. suppose we get a nastier mutation of the Rona next Winter to speed up the crash? (I think it should tend to mutate towards more benign forms to survive but I'm no virologist.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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