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1 hour ago, moonriver said:

Food prices is maybe one to watch.

I saw a thread on twitter recently with people complaining how much more expensive their food shop, even for just basics, had become.

Most of the usual offers were not available.

I have a big family and it has been noticable for us.

Food has never been cheaper  or better quality and choice. Food could rise three or even four fold and still be historically cheap. Maybe if your paying 65% plus of your wages  for your rent or mortgages and along with that you also have debts, then I suppose any rise in anything will be a shock.

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4 hours ago, Warlord said:

The CPI is junk. Prices have risen far faster than it over the last few years. Check the price of a newspaper for example

CPI is the average of a whole host of things though - you can’t just pick one thing and say “look that’s gone up more so CPI is wrong”

In fact, almost by definition, half of things must increase faster than CPI (and half lower)

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2 hours ago, Killer Bunny said:

Oh dear.  Even current CPI is higher than 2015. A higher low is the beginning of a new trend.

You do like talking nonsense. You have picked the lowest point on a 100 year graph. Yes its higher does not make it a "trend".

The initial jump from 2015 was the 2016 brexit inflationary spike caused by sharp decline in value of GBP its been falling since then.

Whether it goes up from now or not is arguable but its multiyear trend since Nov 2017 has been down not up.

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2 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Maybe these are sassy sellers who have priced low now, so they could offload quick because they can see the writings on the wall?

eg...from 2 of your examples...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-76768135.html

this one was asking £175k. Maybe sold for £165k-£170k?

However, the same style house, same road sold in 2005 for £162950 and in 2010 for £160k.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=25767088&sale=24264750&country=england

So by the time fees were paid, it must of cost this seller to offload it now.

And this one...

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65008626.html

asking price £130k.

Similiar terraced house, same road sold £124,950 in 2015.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=15062385&sale=24850470&country=england

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3 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Speed I lived in Brum for a while,. Would you rather live in Kingsheath or Balsall Heath? 🤣 Literally down the road from each other and I imagine huge differentials in prices. Birmingham is massive.

 

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1 hour ago, Warlord said:

Speed I lived in Brum for a while,. Would you rather live in Kingsheath or Balsall Heath? 🤣 Literally down the road from each other and I imagine huge differentials in prices. Birmingham is massive.

 

Neither, I'm on the edge of Sutton Coldfield, good for now 😀.

It's just interesting that people are still buying, I'm just not convinced that there will be a major house price crash.

Possibly I'm wrong, reading the news this is apparently the biggest recession since the great depression. 

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17 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Lag in what way?

They are buying now in the height of the recession?

There either doing it because their daft or just want a home or because they foresee an increase in house prices, over the years to come.

These have been listed days ago and already under offer.

In my area there were 50 buyers per house precovid19, I can't see this current situation stopping all those people proceeding.

Strangely, I'm spotting houses even above the level before covid19.. 🤔.

There will be folk whom have sold just before the lockdown or exchanged contracts before then.

They have money and the capability to buy right now for these prices.

I am of the mind that there are a large number of people whom will buy at whatever price they can finance at that time.

if they have the money and the loan they will use it you even get folk with all the bad news will be of the mind use that mortgage offer now or I might not be able to get so much loan later.  Debt is wealth

This is a lag and with the cheap money and lack of property for sale this may trickle along for a few months with the suspension of mortgage payments and prevention of foreclosures.

I am of the mind that good or bad effects take six months to hit so August/September + delay due to effectiveness of government intervention.
 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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9 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

I am of the mind that good or bad effects take six months to hit so August/September + delay due to effectiveness of government intervention.

 

You mean due to the biggest recession since at least WW2.

As I have said, first they have to reopen the economy.  June or July?

Furlough starts to end August (with e'er cost sharing) then unemployment etc soars.  Sales numbers will continue to be at crash levels.  Prices will fall from now, not based on the prior exchanged contract prices. Won't show in LR data till August.

HPC won't be clear till Sep/Oct/Nov.

 

I said Aug/Sep previously.  Someone made me rethink and they are right.  That's too early for confirmation, just initial signs.

 

Anyone buying/trading up now is stupid and/or ignorant.

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19 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

You mean due to the biggest recession since at least WW2.

As I have said, first they have to reopen the economy.  June or July?

Furlough starts to end August (with e'er cost sharing) then unemployment etc soars.  Sales numbers will continue to be at crash levels.  Prices will fall from now, not based on the prior exchanged contract prices. Won't show in LR data till August.

HPC won't be clear till Sep/Oct/Nov.

 

I said Aug/Sep previously.  Someone made me rethink and they are right.  That's too early for confirmation, just initial signs.

 

Anyone buying/trading up now is stupid and/or ignorant.

We just stating as to why there is a lag.  Some folk have sale money and mortgage offers and they are happy to catch a falling knife.

I agree it is going to be carnage it has to be.

 

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20 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

You mean due to the biggest recession since at least WW2.

As I have said, first they have to reopen the economy.  June or July?

Furlough starts to end August (with e'er cost sharing) then unemployment etc soars.  Sales numbers will continue to be at crash levels.  Prices will fall from now, not based on the prior exchanged contract prices. Won't show in LR data till August.

HPC won't be clear till Sep/Oct/Nov.

I said Aug/Sep previously.  Someone made me rethink and they are right.  That's too early for confirmation, just initial signs.

I agree and think it will be autumn until obvious signs of the hpc.

By then, the extent of the economic problems will have started to become clear, plus any empty properties for sale will have an extra incentive to sell with the advent of the colder weather arriving.

Here in Wales, we are still in full lockdown, so it will be June at the earliest before estate agents may be able to return to work.   

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I was in the process of buying and selling moving up the ladder before covid hit, my buyers haven't pulled out yet but the people im buying off wouldn't renogiate so I pulled out going to rent for 6 months sod buying now in this market 

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1 hour ago, moonriver said:

I agree and think it will be autumn until obvious signs of the hpc.

By then, the extent of the economic problems will have started to become clear, plus any empty properties for sale will have an extra incentive to sell with the advent of the colder weather arriving.

Here in Wales, we are still in full lockdown, so it will be June at the earliest before estate agents may be able to return to work.   

I have noticed quite a few new listings in the past week despite lockdown - many at peak+ prices.for the area. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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59 minutes ago, Patfig said:

Well we have had ( still have ) pestilence, which horse are we expecting next?

Hi.

When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine."

So, a rise in the price of basic foodstuffs, but not in the price of fancy stuff for the elite. 

Edited by Timm

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Bits starting to trickle in now which are confirming to me what I was expecting, I can see the speed of the  downturn picking up very quickly soon.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-76011493.html

Too small for me and missing 4 acres and a stable🙂, but this little gem is being given away, someone is in a rush. Nice little blank canvas that needs doing up in a sought after village on a prime spot central to an outdoors lovers paradise.

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7 minutes ago, Timm said:

Hi.

When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine."

So, a rise in the price of basic foodstuffs, but not in the price of fancy stuff for the elite. 

Any advances on famine?

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1 minute ago, crumblingcon said:

Bits starting to trickle in now which are confirming to me what I was expecting, I can see the speed of the  downturn picking up very quickly soon.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-76011493.html

Too small for me and missing 4 acres and a stable🙂, but this little gem is being given away, someone is in a rush. Nice little blank canvas that needs doing up in a sought after village on a prime spot central to an outdoors lovers paradise.

got to love the plumbing and wiring on the front of that stable 

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7 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

Bits starting to trickle in now which are confirming to me what I was expecting, I can see the speed of the  downturn picking up very quickly soon.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-76011493.html

Too small for me and missing 4 acres and a stable🙂, but this little gem is being given away, someone is in a rush. Nice little blank canvas that needs doing up in a sought after village on a prime spot central to an outdoors lovers paradise.

Interesting, I see there is a "Notice of offer - £72,000", so it must of been a repossession.

Banks, willing to take lower offer than normal then, as they know the crash has started?

I am not familiar at all with that area, so how much do you reckon pre-covid a place like this would of sold for?

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  • 381 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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