I told you.

[dougless]

6 hours ago, Orb said:

I see the positives of technology, but tend to feel the negatives more profoundly.

2) Digital surveillance. I'm a lorry driver. I've seen dramatic change in the 16 years I've been doing it. Last year I suddenly noticed an inward facing camera filming me for my whole shift (10-15 hours), and my working life has never been the same since. They are abused, and are randomly screened. When my company needs to cull drivers, they do not choose redundancy, they choose to review camera footage until they spot somebody having a vape or eating a sandwich at the wheel, and sack them. Further, we have telematics, forward facing cameras, tachographs, in cab microphones, trackers, and a few other things surveying us and every tiny action is monitored and recorded. If telematics read our driving actions to be outside set parameters (such as a harsh braking incident), the boss receives and email, and we get 'retrained'. It's all a bit 1984. Work now feels like an open prison, and there is much fear and paranoia amongst drivers that was not there just 12 months ago and beyond. There is no joy in the job anymore. In wider society we have smartphones, facial recognition cameras, smarthomes (Echo, smartmeters, etc), ANPR, black boxes on cars, the list is endless. It feels overwhelming to anybody who holds privacy and freedom as a prime value, and a life where every minute action is recorded feels horrific.

Thanks for posting this.  Intellectually I suppose I knew this was happening but really had no idea it had progressed so far and so fast.  Your description is chilling and is a warning to us all.  Its not hard to see how these monitoring practices could be used in other occupations.  I am fairly circumspect about social media but at least with that type of technology we have a choice. When your boss or an automated system is watching you and that is seen as acceptable, its much harder to opt out.

[Locke]

12 hours ago, Si1 said:

I'd suggest it has evolved

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Si1]

2 minutes ago, Locke said:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Yeah fair play ?

[Locke]

6 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

If people want to clap and donate to the NHS to show their appreciation then what’s it to you? Not everyone is a miserly selfish misery guts. 

You're one of them. Fits.

[winkie]

9 hours ago, Orb said:

No, it's something bigger than that. It's something I can't articulate in one post. It's paradigmatic in nature. Everything seems cheaper today, such as values, aesthetics, and workmanship. Things seem way more vacuous than they were, way less substantial. Everything sees completely warped and twisted in all spheres: economic, social, cultural, political. 

I think I just crave a good 90s rave followed by non-pc comedy and 7% on my savings. 

No accountability, each for their own, others do it like that without penalty, so must be all right, therefore we all can, fiddle this, take that, integrity hard to find, dog eat dog, greed is good.....no where to go nowhere to run, no one to stand up for those who can't stand up for themselves.....pride and respect flew out the window....no shame.

[longgone]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

People should think more deeply about these issues. You're scratching the surface and raging against something, but I don't think you go far enough.

Business don't demand cheap labour. Consumers do. Whenever you buy a foreign product you're supporting globalism and cheap labour. Even if you buy local products, if you ever make a choice based on price, you're demanding cheap labour. 

Business exist only at the whims of consumers, not the other way round.

And this isn't new. This has been happening since people first started trading. Globalism is nothing new. People want to eliminate globalism but I don't even think they know what they mean. What do they mean? No trade across nation state borders? What after that, no trade between regions because one region might have cheaper labour than another? 

You took my statement and applied your own context, i meant in the 90`s people were more valued employers would employ you based on personality and how you came across and obviously some experience but more importantly if you  had the capability to learn and do the job required now or could learn quickly. 

Now its just employ the cheapest possible person and if they are not UK home grown just bring more in from elsewhere Don`t have the full skill set in the bin you go. what i am saying is there is no leeway anymore you have to fight over resources job and homes. 

Cost to house yourself shocking, wages shocking even for those who declare themselves as educated, they should know first how terrible pay is in the uk just look back to the 90`s. 

There are no cheap goods made in the uk apart from the cheap forced workers. i disagree the market decides the price on goods, the manufacturer has decided that. Now they go for volume than quality and price point. 

I never asked for a high street full of cheap plastic throwaway clothes i used to pay £50 for a shirt 25 years ago. why would i want a £5 shirt from primark sewn up by child labour now ? The market has decided to make people even poorer so they can only afford £5 shirts. 

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

58 minutes ago, Locke said:

You're one of them. Fits.

Yes I clap and donate for our NHS workers. Got a problem with that?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

18 hours ago, Killer Bunny said:

Killer Rabbit

Prices have fallen 10-20% already.

On reopening there will be 1.5-3m extra unemployed.  Furlough is just the politicians pretending all is well.

Company bankruptcies will be in the 10s of 000s.

They will not slash borrowing rates (unlike 2009).

This is a Real and Nominal HPC, as official inflation is almost 0 anyway.

This is it Lads and Lassies. 

It's been a long road...

As I tweeted (anyone who follows me) I'm looking at ~30% off, nationally, over the next few years.  After that, even wage rises will be punched back by higher interest rates.  Look at 1974-76.  ~50% rise in wages.  ZERO rise in HPs.

 

Going forward, rates will rise, as deflation turns to inflation.  Expect 1970s levels of inflation by the end of the decade.  Oh, and interest rates too.

So, what's going to happen to house prices over the next 10+ years?  It's just maths.

Not immigration.  Not 'demand' (!!!).  Not we're an island.  Not but it's London, init?!  Not the government won't allow it.  Not wage rises.

It's ALL easy/tight lending and borrowing rates.

ENJOY!

Split hairs if you wish.  Disagree if you wish.

No doubt they WILL introduce / increase yet more Communism into house prices in 2022 or 2023.  But that is then.

 

For those interested, I came back a few months ago, as it happens, to read what you've been saying.  I knew something was building.

It wasn't the time to post.  It is now.

 

 

Thought you'd given up on HPC ?

Aren't we all sad loonies ?

Let me give this some context.  I used to follow KB on twiter but every time I mentioned house prices he'd go off on one saying how he not posted on HPC for years and we were a bunch of idiots.

It got so bad I had to block him.

To be fair he was right about the 2007 collapse so he is worth listening to but after listening to him slag off HPC for a year or two I couldn't give a toss what he has to say.

If you want the person with the real brains seek out Durham Boy, he's pretty much predicted this exactly as it is unfolding.

Anyway, KB, glad to see you back and by association admit you're a sad idiot too.

Edited May 19, 2020 by TheCountOfNowhere

[scottbeard]

8 hours ago, Orb said:

Take the digital revolution for example. I think that's the worst thing to happen to ordinary people. A selection of reasons would be: 

1) Tinder. Think of how it's shaped how an entire generation think of love, sex, and romance. Think of how a) people are essentially reduced to items in a catalogue, b) how it conveniently replaces the embodied and romantic thrill of eyes meeting across a crowded room in real life. 

2) Digital surveillance. I'm a lorry driver. I've seen dramatic change in the 16 years I've been doing it. Last year I suddenly noticed an inward facing camera filming me for my whole shift (10-15 hours).

3) Social media. Yes I know HPC is social media, but I'm talking about Fakebook and the like. It's a virtual space where people must be popular and showcase themselves as happy and fulfilled regardless of whether they are actually happy and fulfilled.  

We had neither of these 3 things in 2000 in the guise or capacity we have today. 

1)  Never used Tinder.  But I met my wife on an online dating site.  We are happily married, and yet would never have met otherwise.  How many people, honestly, meet their partner via the "thrill of eyes meeting across a crowded room" - does that actually happen in real life?  Maybe if you're 22...but if you're a 30-something divorcee like I was you don't bump into suitable single ladies in every crowded room. "Life-changingly positive" is how i'd describe online dating for me.

2) That sounds terrible!  No wonder you don't like it.  Digital surveillance never bothers me - but then I've never had anything like that.  Being filmed all day every day I would definitely hate.

3) Then don't join it.  Or join it, but be aware that you have to be as careful with your mental health as you would in other areas with your physical self: we don't ban cars because people get run over, but we do look each way before crossing the road.

Overall I think the car analogy is a good one for the "digitial revolution" - potentially hugely beneficial but also life-threateningly dangerous if mis-used.  The key is in how it's used, not that it exists.

2 hours ago, neon tetra said:

I was wondering the effect of the Coronavirus on how many pensions would be drawn. So far, I think it’s killed about 0.4% of all 70+ year olds. So not all that many. But I wonder if it will have shortened the lives of other who have had it.

Impact studies I've seen so far are, essentially, suggesting that the impact is negligible.   A large proportion would have died fairly soon of something else anyway, and the others are - whilst very sad at an individual level - simply not enough to make much financial impact overall.  As you say, if there are long term health impacts we don't know about yet, that could change the picture.  But right now I'd best sum up the impact of Coronavirus on overall population life expectancy as virtually nil.  The FINANCIAL impact of it is more significant in the pensions world than the actual deaths.

[Bruce Banner]

11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I work in pensions so this could be fun.

Please start on pensions...

Do you sell pension mortgages?

[richmondtw]

18 hours ago, Killer Bunny said:

Prices have fallen 10-20% already.

No they have not

16 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

I have posted a few times on here that I am actually too embarrassed, or maybe not embarrassed, maybe a better word is not wanting to sound  foolish right now on what I personally think is very possible on how low prices could get. -30% is a good start off point like you say ?, then reevaluate 

And you are a financial expert - who has been paying rent for years? hmmmmmmmmmmm

[richmondtw]

14 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

It's will be a 70% property market crash in the UK. 

Will take a good few years but once this has all played out (Covid and brexit) we'll see who's got what and who's not

If you had any money I would offer a bet - in any event as you do not work unless houses are free you will never own one 

[scottbeard]

30 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Do you sell pension mortgages?

I help companies with their final salary pension schemes

[scottbeard]

32 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Do you sell pension mortgages?

Oh hang on this isnt a genuine question is it - just you trolling me again isn’t it... you accused me of being an estate agent back in about 2010.

?

Putting you in ignore now 

[mattyboy1973]

3 hours ago, neon tetra said:

So far, I think it’s killed about 0.4% of all 70+ year olds. So not all that many.

Despite making up the bulk of the deaths, relatively few over 70s have actually had it. I think the results of a London serology study showed high prevalence in younger age groups (20%+ in 20-30) but only 3% of pensioners. A good thing, of course, but one does wonder how sustainable it is if we still have a year to go until vaccine.

I still think the govt will do anything it can to keep nominal prices up there, which means inflation. One way or another, I think they can manage do produce it. Whether they can then stop it is of course another question, but they might still consider that the preferable outcome.

[Locke]

48 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Yes I clap and donate for our NHS workers. Got a problem with that?

Not really. 

[frederico]

11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I work in pensions so this could be fun.

Please start on pensions...

Hmm well as far as I can see no one can afford a pension and a mortgage and a BMW and a holiday in Florida.  Oh and a new kitchen in the new extension. 

But if they try their pension savings are going to suck billions out of the economy and give very little back. Obviously this will cause general fiscal problems at some point. However as it will be a steady stream of individuals who suffer and the vast majority of the population will be living the dream, everything will be fine.

Just get a btl innit. Or if you have a house it'll be worth a fortune won't it, but the kids wanted that money, though.

[Killer Bunny]

15 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I help companies with their final salary pension schemes

I wonder how many will go bust over the next few years.

[frederico]

8 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

If people want to clap and donate to the NHS to show their appreciation then what’s it to you? Not everyone is a miserly selfish misery guts. 

Hi, clapping is waste of time and energy, it is being used as a psychological tool to make people think they can help and in some way contribute. It distracts from the details and any reality. 

The reality is that people's lives have been turned on their heads, by government and scientific negligence. 

Not only that, but the secretive superpower that let the thing out treats us all with contempt for daring to question what is going on.

We should be refusing to trade with China until they get their humans rights, welfare and democracy in order. 

This of course will never happen because the billionaires make money out of slave labour and lending us money to buy the products. 

There are very good well meaning people around and they are the heart of our society, people working in the NHS do amazing very arduous work. Clapping isn't going to feed their families. 

[frederico]

39 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I help companies with their final salary pension schemes

Yeah that's good,  I've got two of those thanks, I hope you get a decent cut. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by frederico

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

People should think more deeply about these issues. You're scratching the surface and raging against something, but I don't think you go far enough.

Business don't demand cheap labour. Consumers do. Whenever you buy a foreign product you're supporting globalism and cheap labour. Even if you buy local products, if you ever make a choice based on price, you're demanding cheap labour. 

Business exist only at the whims of consumers, not the other way round.

And this isn't new. This has been happening since people first started trading. Globalism is nothing new. People want to eliminate globalism but I don't even think they know what they mean. What do they mean? No trade across nation state borders? What after that, no trade between regions because one region might have cheaper labour than another? 

What they usually mean is we quite liked the high standard of living our exploitation of the rest of the world enabled but we are not so keen on letting others have their share.

They don't realise that it is not within our gift to end globalization, the word has been global for a long time now, its just that until 40yrs ago the wealth transfer was pretty much one way.  

  

[Killer Bunny]

11 hours ago, Chunketh said:

Have we actually seen any evidence of drops yet? I am hearing a lot of whinging about buyers “trying it on” for 20% but seeing no drop in asking prices.

dont get me wrong, as a trigger poised, gun cocked first time buyer I am ready to pounce but really want to start seeing some hard evidence that postponement for a year is a solid course of action

Not officially but many anecdotes.  And importantly, the media is softening people up for what's coming / happening.

[Bluestone59]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Thought you'd given up on HPC ?

Aren't we all sad loonies ?

Let me give this some context.  I used to follow KB on twiter but every time I mentioned house prices he'd go off on one saying how he not posted on HPC for years and we were a bunch of idiots.

It got so bad I had to block him.

To be fair he was right about the 2007 collapse so he is worth listening to but after listening to him slag off HPC for a year or two I couldn't give a toss what he has to say.

If you want the person with the real brains seek out Durham Boy, he's pretty much predicted this exactly as it is unfolding.

Anyway, KB, glad to see you back and by association admit you're a sad idiot too.

Durham born?

[Bruce Banner]

42 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Oh hang on this isnt a genuine question is it - just you trolling me again isn’t it... you accused me of being an estate agent back in about 2010.

?

Putting you in ignore now 

It was a genuine question, as a positive answer would have gone some way in explaining some of the pro HPI posts you've made over the years.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

I'm not sure that a once in a lifetime catastrophic event causing a house price collapse is a great "I told you so".

A stopped clock is right twice a day etc.

The housing market in the UK is built on shaky foundations. Predicting collapse is not a matter of if but when, and for most people, the when is far more pertinent.

Waiting 16 years is hardly some sort of victory to boast about. If I'd known it would have taken another 12 years in 2008 I would have bought then.

If covid does result in a HPC, I doubt whether to many long term posters on this site it will feel like much of a victory.