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Killer Rabbit

Prices have fallen 10-20% already.

On reopening there will be 1.5-3m extra unemployed.  Furlough is just the politicians pretending all is well.

Company bankruptcies will be in the 10s of 000s.

They will not slash borrowing rates (unlike 2009).

This is a Real and Nominal HPC, as official inflation is almost 0 anyway.

This is it Lads and Lassies. 

It's been a long road...

As I tweeted (anyone who follows me) I'm looking at ~30% off, nationally, over the next few years.  After that, even wage rises will be punched back by higher interest rates.  Look at 1974-76.  ~50% rise in wages.  ZERO rise in HPs.

 

Going forward, rates will rise, as deflation turns to inflation.  Expect 1970s levels of inflation by the end of the decade.  Oh, and interest rates too.

So, what's going to happen to house prices over the next 10+ years?  It's just maths.

Not immigration.  Not 'demand' (!!!).  Not we're an island.  Not but it's London, init?!  Not the government won't allow it.  Not wage rises.

It's ALL easy/tight lending and borrowing rates.

ENJOY!

Split hairs if you wish.  Disagree if you wish.

No doubt they WILL introduce / increase yet more Communism into house prices in 2022 or 2023.  But that is then.

 

For those interested, I came back a few months ago, as it happens, to read what you've been saying.  I knew something was building.

It wasn't the time to post.  It is now.

 

 

Edited by Killer Bunny
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and CGNAO...

Seriously though, I fully concur with KB's views, and it's great to see some of the old crew back on HPC.

Time to dust off some of the old acronyms too: TEOTWAWKI, anyone? :D

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The resurrection of the dead is a real phenomenon. HPC is alive and well, and all those who have been coming here over the years are gathering back together after being scattered to the 4 corners of the world, to celebrate an event that we stopped believing would occur in our lifetimes. it is with deep reverence that we stand in witness of the death of HPI, and the casting of the demonic forces of BTL and Airbnb into eternal fire of negative equity. Praise be. Praise be indeed. 

I joined in 2004, stopped coming regularly after the 2008 damp-squib of an adjustment, bought a house in Canada...feasted deeply on the manner of HPI in Ontario, and have now returned to my homeland to share the cup of schadenfreude with fellow travelers as lick our lips in preparation for the feast to come once the beast of HPI lies dead on the ground..

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I am not surrendering to blind hope here, since the start of April I have scribbled down every possibility and I just cannot for the life of me come up with one scenario how they are going to get out of this without a property crash. My first thoughts were though how will they be seen to be at least trying to avoid a property crash, and as the weeks have passed I am not even sure they are going to even bother trying.

If think your -30% fall is way to bullish by the way

 

PS... just the one concern, inflating their way of this problem(but will open up a whole new can of worms)

 

Edited by crumblingcon
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24 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

PS... just the one concern, inflating their way of this problem(but will open up a whole new can of worms)

Bring on negative rates!  

(fully aware that this really is the nuclear option, but cant let brits pay less for their homes now can we...)

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30 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

 

If think your -30% fall is way to bullish by the way

 

 

 

Crumbling: one has to start with a reasonable base case.  -30% actually is huge.

As we get more data then we can revise. 

I will say, IF (big if) prices fall 25-35%, there will be the 1 in 50 that collapses 50%.  Not for at least 2 years, if it happens.

Research and hard negotiating (just walk away after making positive and reasonable noises) will pay.

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6 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Bring on negative rates!  

 

We already have them in 2 year Gilts. 

It won't make any difference to the outlook for property prices.

 

I should have said in my OP, supply will soar, over a year or 2.

 

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2 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

Crumbling: one has to start with a reasonable base case.  -30% actually is huge.

As we get more data then we can revise. 

I will say, IF (big if) prices fall 25-35%, there will be the 1 in 50 that collapses 50%.  Not for at least 2 years, if it happens.

Research and hard negotiating (just walk away after making positive and reasonable noises) will pay.

I have posted a few times on here that I am actually too embarrassed, or maybe not embarrassed, maybe a better word is not wanting to sound  foolish right now on what I personally think is very possible on how low prices could get. -30% is a good start off point like you say ?, then reevaluate 

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3 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

When this all plays out it will be 70% falls and millions bankrupt.

Borrowing funny money from bent banks was always going to end in tears eventually.

You fool, what world you living in ? 

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Nobody called for the whole economic system to collapse to get a HPC (correction).....is this what happens when markets are manipulated to get a certain result.....lots of help extra help for what??

 

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Welcome back KB with your interesting post.

A bit of a shock that it took a huge recession (depression?) via a pandemic to get our HPC.

Without this pandemic do you think we would of got an HPC some time soon, or maybe just one of a smaller portion than what we can now expect? 

 

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2 hours ago, btl_hater said:

Where's Venger??

Indeed!

I've been on here 10+ years, although deleted my account a couple of years ago after getting p#ssed off with the tone of many posts.

It does feel like we're entering a golden era...

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7 minutes ago, moonriver said:

Welcome back KB with your interesting post.

A bit of a shock that it took a huge recession (depression?) via a pandemic to get our HPC.

Without this pandemic do you think we would of got an HPC some time soon, or maybe just one of a smaller portion than what we can now expect? 

 

The pandemic may have been caused by economic inequality in the first place. The pandemic may have been as a result of the global house price boom.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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