House buyers flood back into market after seven-week shutdown

[crumblingcon]

2 hours ago, warpig said:

I've been watching an auction all day for approximately 100 properties. Guide prices are anywhere between £1 and £400k and the properties are all over the country. Due to a low guide price on a particular Grade II listed property that needs quite a lot of work done on it (Gable ends need tying, damp proof membrane inserting between the property and the road, modernising etc..), I was considering bidding - but my expectations are now near zero... Very few have failed to meet their reserve and those that did, appear to have just missed it.

I was expecting some evidence that the world economy is hanging by a thread, there's imminent mass unemployment and the housing market is going to plummet by 20% this year, but I haven't seen any evidence of it. The house I'm interested in has a guide price of £280,000, but I know it needs approximately £65,000 spent on it, firstly to make it safe and secondly to make it habitable. I'm curious how much it's going to sell for now, but I'm confident my bid will be blown out of the water. Will report back later.

Look forward to the update.

You will probably be disappointed though, remember 90% of sellers are only going to begrudginly lower prices because of the 10% of realist out there that do it first, It really is a supertanker turning/stopping  thing

[crumblingcon]

On 5/27/2020 at 12:48 PM, Killer Bunny said:

Markets set rates, not govts - as I have been at pains to remind folk here.

As inflation rises from next year (maybe this, post Lockdown) mortgage rates will rise, as Gilt yields rise.

Not the case pre Gordon Brown ? 

Rates were very political, could not stand Brown, but that is one good thing he did and brought us to the point where your statement is now correct.

[crumblingcon]

51 minutes ago, warpig said:

The auction's just finished. I guess it's subjective if the house is worth £352k once the work is complete... It probably is at today's prices... guess I was looking for tomorrow's prices. It wasn't worth it to me... needs gutting, ends tied, damp proof membrane (digging up the road out front) and potentially underpinning (subsidence in 1995) and the conservation officer was as good as useless... 

 

Forget last ? 

Just been updated.

 

I do openwater swimming near there

[warpig]

4 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

So they do all the work, but pay the already done price? 

That's 2 wasted years for nothing. 

Still, they can just move in and not do anything, then it's not so bad. 

Yeah that's about the sum of it... Needs to be a bit more margin in it and they've bought at today's price, not what we believe it will be in 6-12+ months. Yep if they're just going to live in it and keep patching the damp and not worry about the gable ends, it just needs another £14k spent on it.

[warpig]

4 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

So at auction you have to pay cash, right?

I don't know if it's the same with all auctions, but they want 10% on the day and you then provide the difference ASAP.

[warpig]

4 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

Look forward to the update.

You will probably be disappointed though, remember 90% of sellers are only going to begrudginly lower prices because of the 10% of realist out there that do it first, It really is a supertanker turning/stopping  thing

It's OK... it was only the house for us at a certain price given the work it needed... so we'll keep looking and probably won't look seriously again for another 12+ months. Post Covid19 needs to play out.

[warpig]

4 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

Forget last ? 

Just been updated.

 

I do openwater swimming near there

River Nene? if so... where do you start/finish. Openwater swimming seems quite popular around here.

[sammersmith]

I watched the SDL auction today too as i was interested in how much this property would go for 

https://www.sdlauctions.co.uk/property/25226/terraced-house-for-auction-salford/

It was guided at 178K and went for 190k + auction fee of 4.8% therefore = £199,120

What i don't understand is that this house was for sale on the open market in March through an agent for £195k. The history shows this and I remember the house coming up. They couldn't sell so put in an auction at the last minute (probs why it's lot 64A). 

Who would buy this house at auction but turn it down on the open market? Why would they pay over what it was offered (including fees and likely offer under asking) for originally? 

[bear.getting.old]

On 16/05/2020 at 12:30, stop_the_craziness said:

People are queueing in cars to buy McDonalds "food".  

I do not understand other people and I don't think I ever will.

If you tell people they can't do/have something then they will want it, when its back. Even if it means queuing for hours. Case in point, these sad people who queue overnight outside a shop to get the latest iphone.

[warpig]

5 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

I watched the SDL auction today too as i was interested in how much this property would go for 

https://www.sdlauctions.co.uk/property/25226/terraced-house-for-auction-salford/

It was guided at 178K and went for 190k + auction fee of 4.8% therefore = £199,120

What i don't understand is that this house was for sale on the open market in March through an agent for £195k. The history shows this and I remember the house coming up. They couldn't sell so put in an auction at the last minute (probs why it's lot 64A). 

Who would buy this house at auction but turn it down on the open market? Why would they pay over what it was offered (including fees and likely offer under asking) for originally? 

I got the impression there was a bit of eager bidding, like people just enjoyed the event and perhaps got a bit trigger happy... Lots of early needless bids to push the price up. I prefer the sniping approach.

[bear.getting.old]

7 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

I watched the SDL auction today too as i was interested in how much this property would go for 

https://www.sdlauctions.co.uk/property/25226/terraced-house-for-auction-salford/

It was guided at 178K and went for 190k + auction fee of 4.8% therefore = £199,120

What i don't understand is that this house was for sale on the open market in March through an agent for £195k. The history shows this and I remember the house coming up. They couldn't sell so put in an auction at the last minute (probs why it's lot 64A). 

Who would buy this house at auction but turn it down on the open market? Why would they pay over what it was offered (including fees and likely offer under asking) for originally? 

People who don't do their homework or people who get caught up in the bidding because somebody else was bidding against them not wanting to be outdone.

[sammersmith]

Just now, bear.getting.old said:

People who don't do their homework or people who get caught up in the bidding because somebody else was bidding against them not wanting to be outdone.

A few lots before there was a 'telephone bidder' and an 'online bidder' going against each other for the same lot. Auctioneer seemed to give an inordinate amount of time for the 'online bidder' to come back with a bid. Could be allowing time for network latency but the pessimist in me wondered if there really ever was a 'telephone bidder'.

[sammersmith]

6 minutes ago, warpig said:

I got the impression there was a bit of eager bidding, like people just enjoyed the event and perhaps got a bit trigger happy... Lots of early needless bids to push the price up. I prefer the sniping approach.

Agreed. It's an expensive game though and are there still people out there who have that much confidence in capital growth? 

[crumblingcon]

27 minutes ago, warpig said:

River Nene? if so... where do you start/finish. Openwater swimming seems quite popular around here.

Village between Oundle and Thrapston, yes on the Nene, some of the best long distance swimming spots around

[bear.getting.old]

So what is the consensus here then. Housing market to go up, stay the same or the mother of all crashes

[HovelinHove]

Slowly slowly catchy monkey. A lot of people who wanted to buy a house this spring, and are blinded by that desire, and could never contemplate the idea of prices falling, are steaming in there. Prices may even rise a bit, although I would be surprised if they did. It won’t be until the furlough tide has gone out and we see the real damage to the economy that the penny will drop.

[Trump Invective]

1 minute ago, bear.getting.old said:

So what is the consensus here then. Housing market to go up, stay the same or the mother of all crashes

It's so weird how it's an unknown, bearing no relation to rational thought.

I started thinking housing was a one off in that regard, and I suppose usually it is.

However, there are so many other examples of unknowns in the near future. Will holidays be more expensive or cheaper? What about mobile phones? Bread? I've decided to wait and see what happens, and not make any predictions (having thought there would be a significant fall).

[Trump Invective]

8 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Slowly slowly catchy monkey. A lot of people who wanted to buy a house this spring, and are blinded by that desire, and could never contemplate the idea of prices falling, are steaming in there. Prices may even rise a bit, although I would be surprised if they did. It won’t be until the furlough tide has gone out and we see the real damage to the economy that the penny will drop.

40% of stalled transactions aren't going through any more (Zoopla) and I can only guess that's sentiment or circumstances changing. It's going to be absolutely epic, but the props are now covering pretty much all the economy rather than just the housing market. Patience, as you say. This winter may be tough economically. No lounging in the garden in January having had no work for months 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Trump Invective

[bear.getting.old]

I think both of you may be right, especially if the virus comes back over the winter. Though that might lead to furlough v2

[Bob8]

8 hours ago, Si1 said:

It's emotional abuse and it carries on into adulthood. You're always the scapegoat. Breaking the cycle is essential. It's crucially important that I don't treat my kids like emotional punch bags the way my dad tries to treat me, if it wasn't for the boundaries I've more recently constructed.

Good on you for getting through that.

[Bob8]

5 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

Look forward to the update.

You will probably be disappointed though, remember 90% of sellers are only going to begrudginly lower prices because of the 10% of realist out there that do it first, It really is a supertanker turning/stopping  thing

Yes, we often forget prices started dropping in 2006, many thought it had bottomed out in 2007 and then people were shaken to the reality in 2008 and 2009.

Shithole removation jobs, where builders might do it up to speculate will struggle right now. It will take a while to work up.

[Killer Bunny]

5 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

Not the case pre Gordon Brown ? 

Rates were very political, could not stand Brown, but that is one good thing he did and brought us to the point where your statement is now correct.

Eh? What are you talking about? Rates have always been set by the market.

Oh are you talking about the unimportant Base Rate? ?

Edited May 28, 2020 by Killer Bunny

[crumblingcon]

22 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

So what is the consensus here then. Housing market to go up, stay the same or the mother of all crashes

Mother of all crashes.

You just have to look at the basic economic fundamentals to see that even plate spinning is not going to prevent this, just take a few hours and a notepad and do some basic maths, though you won't get the collapse sequence in the correct order as it all fails, that's impossible IMO. But one thing will lead to another which will tilt so and so that will crash X etc etc

Should have all happened around 2006 ish, was never going to happen 2010 onwards for at least several years, this is it, but what do I know ? 

[crumblingcon]

5 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Yes, we often forget prices started dropping in 2006, many thought it had bottomed out in 2007 and then people were shaken to the reality in 2008 and 2009.

Shithole removation jobs, where builders might do it up to speculate will struggle right now. It will take a while to work up.

I  recently did some work with a massively loaded customer with a huge village house that purchased a property next door in order just to pinch the garden and then put the property back on the market. He is just putting the property on the market now minus garden, will be interesting to see how much that new garden might now cost him ? 

[simon2]

I watched the Allsop Auctions (https://auctions.allsop.co.uk/property-search?auction_id=602908cc-d95a-11e9-b68b-0242ac110002), overall quite disappointing, some things did not get bid but others did.

It's still early days though. One might surmise at this time that fast food is going to be incredibly popular based on the hours queues this week. But clearly for a variety of factors that will subside.

We're getting to the point that unless you have a bid accepted now, you may not be able to move in time for the academic year. Combined with more properties coming onto the market I am hopeful the scales will tip a bit. But I don't expect a crash to be quick, or happen at all for some desirable properties.