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6weeks until Brexit no deal

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6 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Where is the raised interest rates that Carney threatened or the emergency budget that Osborne promised? Given they had power over these decisions it was more of a promise than the anticipated benefits the leave side promoted. 

Shhhhhhh. Don't mention that. Only the Leave side lied apparently....

 

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2 minutes ago, Huggy said:

I genuinely wish you all the best. We are all in it together now, and your sucess will be consistent with mine, and vice-versa. I'm really quite excited for the future now.

Awww thanks! I wish me all the best too. Of course I will feel a little guilty profiting from the idiots who voted brexit and who will suffer from it...but not too guilty :)

 

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16 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Shhhhhhh. Don't mention that. Only the Leave side lied apparently....

 

Let's also not mention the 300 odd billion they printed and the slide in sterling.... both of those helped boost my coffers...excellent... job well done. It's booty time for those with the right investments. I didn't realise that being a 'patriot' would be so profitable.

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54 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Where is the raised interest rates that Carney threatened or the emergency budget that Osborne promised? Given they had power over these decisions it was more of a promise than the anticipated benefits the leave side promoted. 

Does matter, Leave won and we all have to pay the price if they fail to deliver a good deal.

Re your points:

Carney never said interest rates would rise, he said it was one option for dealing with the impact of the vote. If you want to see what they actually did have a look a Carney giving evidence the treasury select Committee about the actions taken by the BoE to head off the predicted fallout from the vote, the BoE was well prepared and put a range of measures into effect on the night of the vote. He said, something along the lines of,  these avoided a run on the £ and putting 400,000 people on the dole at a cost at £60bn funded by increased borrowing        

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9 hours ago, sammersmith said:

How ever it was divided, every vote is equal. You can't say some votes are more equal than others. 

Where did I say that?

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9 hours ago, IMHAL said:

 

I feel a bit like a Jekyll and Hyde character. I voted remain, yet now I'm a no dealer. It's obvious that we are going to leave, so I might as well profit from it. Looking forward to the pound sliding, the unemployment, and most importantly....the fire sale. Can't say I will feel too sorry for the poor fckrs who brought it on themselves tho...someone has has to pay..and someone has to profit....such is life. Let get our sovereignty back...pronto.

Yes Imhal, I agree. Like all Leavers, I want to completely feck the country and make the rich richer too. I'm a no-deal fan. Bring it on.

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1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Yes Imhal, I agree. Like all Leavers, I want to completely feck the country and make the rich richer too. I'm a no-deal fan. Bring it on.

Yes - eventually, I have come round to your way of thinking. 

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12 hours ago, IMHAL said:

 

I feel a bit like a Jekyll and Hyde character. I voted remain, yet now I'm a no dealer. It's obvious that we are going to leave, so I might as well profit from it. Looking forward to the pound sliding, the unemployment, and most importantly....the fire sale. Can't say I will feel too sorry for the poor fckrs who brought it on themselves tho...someone has has to pay..and someone has to profit....such is life. Let get our sovereignty back...pronto.

Me too. I am out of GBP. I might pick up some assets when the UK finds its bottom. The harder the better for me but not counting on it. I will probably retire somewhere in the EU when people are nicer and weather is better.  I came to a conclusion that the best way for Leavers to understand their mistake is to experience the fruits of their decision. It is funny how some of them turn anti-lockdown when their finances become shaky.  

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11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Carney never said interest rates would rise, he said it was one option for dealing with the impact of the vote.

Carney knows, as all central bankers do, that every statement they make will be meticulously combed through to look for clues of policy direction. You recall Yellen's removal of the word `patience` from the timeline for normalising interest rates that made the markets freak out?

By saying/implying/having it as an option Carney is making a statement loud and clear to any older, home-owning voters, that if you vote leave then interest rates up, therefore mortgage rates up, therefore house prices down. It could not have been any clearer. The fact that he not only didn't raise interest rates but instead dropped them (something i don't even think he hinted at!) only shows he was a fully signed up member of project fear who would say anything to prevent the vote going the way it did. 

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4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Where did I say that?

I was saying 'you' in the broader sense to refer to all `people`, though i accept that isn't clear from the way i stated it. 

I also have a particular bugbear for people who say that voters who are too old or thick, or both, have no right to contribute to the outcome of the Brexit referendum, so apologies if some of this seething leaked though. 

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1 hour ago, slawek said:

Me too. I am out of GBP. I might pick up some assets when the UK finds its bottom. The harder the better for me but not counting on it. I will probably retire somewhere in the EU when people are nicer and weather is better.  I came to a conclusion that the best way for Leavers to understand their mistake is to experience the fruits of their decision. It is funny how some of them turn anti-lockdown when their finances become shaky.  

I don't have the luxury of moving to the EU. I agree that people here have become more inward looking, insular and right wing, it's worrying. They bought into the clap trap, hook line and sinker. Poor sods will have the luxury of living with it :)

Brexit is a great opportunity to capitalise tho, unfortunately, like a vulture, it will be at the expense of the poorer end of the British population. I pity the poor sods who will reap the aftermath of Trumps 'excellent' deal... well, perhaps not pity, more like fleece. I agree re investements. I diversified years ago, it was a wise move. And yes..people will change their minds when the reality of their finances meets the delusion of the Brexit unicorn. But in the meantime, time to make money!

I follow your posts and admire your logical disposition. Keep it up.

 

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56 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Carney knows, as all central bankers do, that every statement they make will be meticulously combed through to look for clues of policy direction. You recall Yellen's removal of the word `patience` from the timeline for normalising interest rates that made the markets freak out?

By saying/implying/having it as an option Carney is making a statement loud and clear to any older, home-owning voters, that if you vote leave then interest rates up, therefore mortgage rates up, therefore house prices down. It could not have been any clearer. The fact that he not only didn't raise interest rates but instead dropped them (something i don't even think he hinted at!) only shows he was a fully signed up member of project fear who would say anything to prevent the vote going the way it did. 

Few voters would have known or cared about Carney's comments. The important thing is he was prepared for a no vote and prevented a runaway fall in the £ with an immediate (within minutes of the Sunderland vote) an injection of £250bn of liquidity/bank guarantees.

The Leave campaign has failed to deliver the promised even better than membership deal and project fear has become reality with the bill arriving at just the wrong moment. 

The people who gamed the vote have got what they wanted.   

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9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Few voters would have known or cared about Carney's comments.

Not directly, but digesting the key message into a format that people could access and understand is what the press is for. 

9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The people who gamed the vote have got what they wanted.

This is not a fairy tale story of good vs. evil. It is far more nuanced than that. Do i think that leave over-egged the benefits of leaving. Yes, probably. But remain were not guiltless in this process either. I've given two examples above regarding Carney and Osborne. There are of course many others. 

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10 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Not directly, but digesting the key message into a format that people could access and understand is what the press is for. 

This is not a fairy tale story of good vs. evil. It is far more nuanced than that. Do i think that leave over-egged the benefits of leaving. Yes, probably. But remain were not guiltless in this process either. I've given two examples above regarding Carney and Osborne. There are of course many others. 

Osborne had no opportunity to do anything budget wise, Cameron resigned then May sacked him.

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7 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Osborne had no opportunity to do anything budget wise, Cameron resigned then May sacked him.

Indeed. However I believe, from the Cameron Years BBC Documentary, it was an internal given that if the vote was lost then Cameron would have to stand down and Osborne, as the companion in this Blair/Brown inspired duo, would have to go too. If Osborne knew, or at least very likely suspected he'd have to go to in the event of a leave vote, then he shouldn't have said, as Chancellor, that an emergency budget was incoming. To do so knowingly is, at best, second-guessing his replacement, or, at worst, purposing putting a fearful message out to compel people to vote the 'right' way.   

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16 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Not directly, but digesting the key message into a format that people could access and understand is what the press is for. 

This is not a fairy tale story of good vs. evil. It is far more nuanced than that. Do i think that leave over-egged the benefits of leaving. Yes, probably. But remain were not guiltless in this process either. I've given two examples above regarding Carney and Osborne. There are of course many others. 

Leave voters broke almost 50/50 into two main camps, those who just wanted to leave no matter what the economic cost and those that believed we really could get a better deal from the EU than we already had. 

The Leave campaign won because they managed to persuade the second group that there was no economic cost to a Leave vote so no we are out and a poorer, less united, less influential and less sovereign country because of it.

Hopefully we will still get a deal, we really cannot afford a no deal exit, surely the EU must realise that if they throw us the fish they can get everything else they want in exchange for something that in economic terms is worth the square root of f/all.

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hopefully we will still get a deal, we really cannot afford a no deal exit, surely the EU must realise that if they throw us the fish they can get everything else they want in exchange for something that in economic terms is worth the square root of f/all.

What do you think are the consequences of no deal?  EU wont trade with us?

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6 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Indeed. However I believe, from the Cameron Years BBC Documentary, it was an internal given that if the vote was lost then Cameron would have to stand down and Osborne, as the companion in this Blair/Brown inspired duo, would have to go too. If Osborne knew, or at least very likely suspected he'd have to go to in the event of a leave vote, then he shouldn't have said, as Chancellor, that an emergency budget was incoming. To do so knowingly is, at best, second-guessing his replacement, or, at worst, purposing putting a fearful message out to compel people to vote the 'right' way.   

Of course, everyone knew that but could not say it as the referendum would have become even more about giving Cameron and Osborne a good kicking for austerity that it already was. Part of not saying is not acknowledging the possibility, so the long term has to be planned for and talked about.

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Just now, blackhole said:

What do you think are the consequences of no deal?  EU wont trade with us?

They will move UK elements of supply chains back within the single market, not immediately but as factories need major new investment it will be relocated back into the EU.  Goverments own figures are for a loss of about 9% of GDP over 10-15yrs, 3% already gone so 6% left.

In good times this loss could have been denied, maybe 1.0% rather than 2.0% growth for 5 or 6 yrs. Not so easy when you have and the public finances already stretched by Brexit and then been hit by Coronavirus.   

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5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Of course, everyone knew that but could not say it as the referendum would have become even more about giving Cameron and Osborne a good kicking for austerity that it already was. Part of not saying is not acknowledging the possibility, so the long term has to be planned for and talked about.

I still don't see how he could threaten something that, if the situation occurred, he knew he would be out and therefore have no power to carry out. 

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4 minutes ago, blackhole said:

What do you think are the consequences of no deal?  EU wont trade with us?

Well there is already a "deal" of sorts, isn't there, in the withdrawal agreement?

So presumably in a "no further deal" situation, that would all apply - are there clauses in the WA that are automatically triggered in the event of no further deal?

Also what is the situation regarding this 6 weeks deadline, if no extension is requested in 6 weeks, then there is a 6 month "countdown" to the "no deal exit" which gives (actually very little) time to work out what is going to happen from the beginning of 2021.

My guess is that the EU would as a point of principle put down the same offer on the table and wait for the UK to ask for concessions. Probably the EU would hold back some low-value symbolic negotiating cards e.g. fish concessions.

Will the EU decide it is in its best interests to be strict, follow the letter of the law, impose massively strict barriers from 1 Jan 2021, make the UK beg for concessions, almost cutting its nose off to spite its face, suck up the cost, just to set an example that a member country that decides to leave will get no special treatment?

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5 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

I still don't see how he could threaten something that, if the situation occurred, he knew he would be out and therefore have no power to carry out. 

I don't see how Cameron and Osborne could have said what they did about the housing market in their 2010 election manifesto and then do the opposite, but they did.

I think "Liar" is the word you are looking for.

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15 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They will move UK elements of supply chains back within the single market, not immediately but as factories need major new investment it will be relocated back into the EU.  Goverments own figures are for a loss of about 9% of GDP over 10-15yrs, 3% already gone so 6% left.

In good times this loss could have been denied, maybe 1.0% rather than 2.0% growth for 5 or 6 yrs. Not so easy when you have and the public finances already stretched by Brexit and then been hit by Coronavirus.   

Thanks.  What would be interesting is what supply chains / sectors these are - wonder where I could find such info?

The question I therefore have is what is the potential to compete in other markets as to balance (if not entirely cancel) this trade deficit?  I suspect so much of this depends on trade deals going forth.

Playing devils advocate, potentially the "virus" has just accelerated the death of some of these supply chains, especially automotive.  Painful indeed for the worker.  Essentially giving everyone a real taste of what brexit could do to the UK economy.

Edit: not really potential anymore, they're having to lease cars out at silly rates just to get them moving suggesting oversupply in automotive sectors at the very least.  Cheers, cheap finance!

Edited by blackhole

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21 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The Leave campaign won because they managed to persuade the second group that there was no economic cost to a Leave vote so no we are out and a poorer

If they had nothing then they had nothing to lose. Maybe the remain establishment should have shared some of that economic miracle around so that people were not being rehoused/section 21-ed outside of their homes in London, not being able to get a doctors appointment, or get their children into their local school. Who would vote for more of the same if this was their life? 

 

27 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

if they throw us the fish they can get everything else they want in exchange for something that in economic terms is worth the square root of f/all.

It's not just the UK that is focusing on fish, Macron seems pretty passionate to be seen to not give up any British fishing grounds he regards are France's right to fish in. 

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Just now, sammersmith said:

If they had nothing then they had nothing to lose. Maybe the remain establishment should have shared some of that economic miracle around so that people were not being rehoused/section 21-ed outside of their homes in London, not being able to get a doctors appointment, or get their children into their local school. Who would vote for more of the same if this was their life? 

Certainly a driver for many I know. 

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  • 381 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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