6weeks until Brexit no deal

[sammersmith]

11 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I don't see how Cameron and Osborne could have said what they did about the housing market in their 2010 election manifesto and then do the opposite, but they did.

I think "Liar" is the word you are looking for.

Very true. Nice little housing boom and then everyone will be happy. 

[dugsbody]

7 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

If they had nothing then they had nothing to lose. Maybe the remain establishment should have shared some of that economic miracle around so that people were not being rehoused/section 21-ed outside of their homes in London, not being able to get a doctors appointment, or get their children into their local school. Who would vote for more of the same if this was their life? 

The majority of people who voted to leave were in the most uncrowded areas, own their own homes, almost certainly don't have troubles getting a doctors appointment nor getting children into school.

[sammersmith]

1 minute ago, dugsbody said:

The majority of people who voted to leave were in the most uncrowded areas, own their own homes, almost certainly don't have troubles getting a doctors appointment nor getting children into school.

London voted remain, very true. However it was only 60/40 which, given the massive population of London compared to any other region in the UK, means there's still a lot of left behind people there. London's popularity also makes it easy to exploit and threaten the lower paid - letting agents are famous for this as they are confident tenants can easily be replaced. Housing associations also don't rehouse in London anymore if they can help it. 

Poorer areas have different challenges. True they are not as crowded but housing is not maintained and often in the hands of private, absent, landlords. Poverty is everywhere. If you've ever walked around the poorer areas in Manchester, such as Gorton or Harpurhey, you really get a sense of the deprivation. Maybe you should take a stroll around Harpurhey and see for your self. Talk to people there and ask them why they voted leave and you will see they simply get no enrichment from being in the EU and have nothing to lose, and many can't see how things can get any worse.   

 

[btl_hater]

18 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

The majority of people who voted to leave were in the most uncrowded areas, own their own homes, almost certainly don't have troubles getting a doctors appointment nor getting children into school.

The vast majority of Leave voters I know are not poor, far from it in many cases, and do not suffer from any of the aforementioned problems.

[sammersmith]

1 minute ago, btl_hater said:

The vast majority of Leave voters I know are not poor

Therein lies the problem. Leave voters come from many walks of life with many different reasons for voting leave. You, like most remainers, know only the rich ones. There are of course a large proportion of people outside of your social circle who voted leave. They are, as you have demonstrated, mostly forgotten about.  

[Take Me Back To London!]

On 17/05/2020 at 14:57, sammersmith said:

Probably. I didn't think he was stupid for risking his health but for thinking he could get away with it, given his prominent role all the heightened media attention on people breaking lockdown. 

Instead of having a sensible course of action a blind panic took hold of the government with Ferguson's flawed compuer modelling saying a worst case scenario could lead to 510,000 deaths and that it would effect the wider population.  Current UK estimates are between 0.5% to 0.75 of those who catch CV-19 die of it or with it and 87% of those are over 65 years old and of those again 90% have multiple health issues including the CV.    Italy is reporting the average age of those have died of CV is between 80 to 81 years old, so again the young and the healthy have been under house arrest for 2 months and the economy destroyed.   Ferguson's over sexed predictions sounds just like the dodgey dossier that said Saddam Hussein had WMDs and they could be launched in 45 minutes if we did not invade Iraq.  

[A.steve]

38 minutes ago, Take Me Back To London! said:

Ferguson's over sexed predictions sounds just like the dodgey dossier that said Saddam Hussein had WMDs and they could be launched in 45 minutes if we did not invade Iraq.  

You aren't the only one to feel such analogies.

[Dorkins]

On 18/05/2020 at 15:36, sammersmith said:

Therein lies the problem. Leave voters come from many walks of life with many different reasons for voting leave. You, like most remainers, know only the rich ones. There are of course a large proportion of people outside of your social circle who voted leave. They are, as you have demonstrated, mostly forgotten about.  

The age 50+ population haven't really been forgotten about though, have they? They are mostly homeowners and most of those who aren't have secure tenancy on council housing. They've got their triple locked state pensions and NHS spending has been soaring as a share of government spending for decades. A high proportion of them vote which is why politicians pay so much attention to them and the newspapers they read.

If you want to see a forgotten demographic, how about the under 40s? Politicians do virtually nothing for them.

[Dorkins]

On 18/05/2020 at 15:30, sammersmith said:

London voted remain, very true. However it was only 60/40 which, given the massive population of London compared to any other region in the UK, means there's still a lot of left behind people there.

Complete nonsense to say London leave voters are "left behind", most of them are the older people who live in outer London boroughs like Bromley. In what sense is an older homeowner in an outer London borough left behind? They've been handed half a million quid by house price inflation, they get a free all zones travel card worth £3k pa etc.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Dorkins

[sammersmith]

21 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The age 50+ population haven't really been forgotten about though, have they?

Not sure where i said the over 50's had been forgotten. I agree the affluent ones are very far from being forgotten. 

22 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

If you want to see a forgotten demographic, how about the under 40s? Politicians do virtually nothing for them.

No argument from me on that. I happen to be in this demographic and have had no freebies or handouts either. 

[sammersmith]

21 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Complete nonsense to say London leave voters are "left behind", most of them are the older people who live in outer London boroughs like Bromley. In what sense is an older homeowner in an outer London borough left behind? They've been handed half a million quid by house price inflation, they get a free all zones travel card worth £3k pa etc.

I'm not sure where this has come from. Not all Londoners (old or otherwise) are rich and not all have access to HPI. Who you are talking about are a few who brought (and stayed) at the right time. The poor/unlucky ones have been increasingly pushed out or thrown to the private rental sector. As i said London voted 60% remain and 40% leave. Remain clearly won with 60% but 40% of London's huge population who voted represents a very large number of dissatisfied people

[Dorkins]

7 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

I'm not sure where this has come from. Not all Londoners (old or otherwise) are rich and not all have access to HPI. Who you are talking about are a few who brought (and stayed) at the right time. The poor/unlucky ones have been increasingly pushed out or thrown to the private rental sector. As i said London voted 60% remain and 40% leave. Remain clearly won with 60% but 40% of London's huge population who voted represents a very large number of dissatisfied people

Sure, I agree they were dissatified (mostly over culture war issues from what I can see), what I disagree with is the claim that leave voters are the economically left behind. In general leave voters are older and in general older people are doing much better economically than the young.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Dorkins

[sammersmith]

17 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

what I disagree with is the claim that leave voters are the economically left behind

There are many types of people with different reasons who voted leave. The tweedy Farage / Banks and wannabes yes, they likely are doing alright and voted brexit as they want to 'fly the flag' again. These are the caricature leave voters that the Guardian likes to point to, though they are (in the real world) few and far between. More than half the country are clearly not like this. The working poor or benefit claimants who have few assets or life chances are, in my opinion, the more populous but least visible Brexit voters.  

17 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

In general leave voters are older

The visible shouty ones certainly yes. You may even be right for the general demographic but that doesn't make their vote any less legitimate. Political opinions change as people get older and i'm sure a lot of today's remainers will feel very differently about the EU when they get older. 

17 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

in general older people are doing much better economically than the young

This is almost universally because of housing costs, and this is also why most of us are on this forum. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by sammersmith

[Dorkins]

1 minute ago, sammersmith said:

The visible shouty ones certainly yes. You may even be right for the general demographic but that doesn't make their vote any less legitimate.

I never said older people's votes are less legitimate. It's just a fact that older people were much more likely to vote leave and older people are in general better off than the young. The claim that Brexit was a cry for help from the economically left behind doesn't stack up. The economically left behind are the 20- and 30somethings who mostly voted to remain.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

The age 50+ population haven't really been forgotten about though, have they? They are mostly homeowners and most of those who aren't have secure tenancy on council housing. They've got their triple locked state pensions and NHS spending has been soaring as a share of government spending for decades. A high proportion of them vote which is why politicians pay so much attention to them and the newspapers they read.

If you want to see a forgotten demographic, how about the under 40s? Politicians do virtually nothing for them.

I'd wager that a good percentage of the furloughed are under 40 old bean.

[sammersmith]

15 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The claim that Brexit was a cry for help from the economically left behind doesn't stack up

This is where we're going to have to disagree. 

15 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The economically left behind are the 20- and 30somethings who mostly voted to remain.

Most middle class young people got behind the remain message. Good for them - i don't blame them for their decision and they can of course vote how they like. As i said, i'm in this demographic and I'm certainly not happy with being screwed over housing-wise either.

However outside of the visible and socially acceptable Guardian/Momentum/Student Activist young person are many more poorer young people who are not doing so well and do not feel the EU has benefited them at all. They will not go on the Erasmus Programme or have a gap year working at a bar in Crete. Their view of the EU is freedom of movement putting pressure on their communities. The fact that the left elite either fail or chose not to see their struggles only makes them seem even more out of touch than before the vote. 

Edited May 23, 2020 by sammersmith

[Dorkins]

5 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

This is where we're going to have to disagree. 

Most middle class young people got behind the remain message. Good for them - i don't blame them for their decision and they can of course vote how they like. As i said, i'm in this demographic and I'm certainly not happy with being screwed over housing-wise either.

However outside of the visible and socially acceptable Guardian/Momentum/Student Activist young person are many more poorer young people who are not doing so well and do not feel the EU has benefited them at all. They will not go on the Erasmus Programme or have a gap year working at a bar in Crete. Their view of the EU is freedom of movement putting pressure on their communities. The fact that the left elite either fail or chose not to see their struggles only makes them seem even more out of touch than before the vote. 

71% of 18-24 year olds are middle class Guardianista Momentum activists are they?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

Fun fact for you, only 30% of 18 year olds go on to university in the UK. Even if every one of them was a middle class Guardianista Momentum activist, your theory is struggling to explain the other 41%...

Edited May 23, 2020 by Dorkins

[sammersmith]

2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

71% of 18-24 year olds are Guardianista Momentum activists are they?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

Oh dear another poll. The remainer weapon of choice. 

Nice that they bothered surveying a full 5,122 people this time. 

[Dorkins]

7 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

Oh dear another poll. The remainer weapon of choice. 

Nice that they bothered surveying a full 5,122 people this time. 

If you don't think 71% of 18-24 year olds voted to remain, what is the correct number?

By the way if you're going to do leftist stereotyping, at least get it right. Momentum activists generally hate the Guardian and vice versa, all through the Corbyn years the Guardian wanted him replaced with somebody from the right of the Labour party. Momentum and Corbyn weren't particularly pro-EU in the first place (seeing it as a neoliberal free market organisation) and they weren't the rabid remainers demanding a second referendum after the 2016 result, that was more the older Guardian-reading Blairite types.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Dorkins

[sammersmith]

3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Let me just check how many numbers you cited in support of your grand theory of Brexit...

I am not a research scientist who claims confidently that 71% of 18-24 year olds voted remain based a small, probably dubious (as it doesn't say), sample stratification. 

11 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Momentum activists generally hate the Guardian and vice versa

I did not known that. Fair enough. 

11 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

all through the Corbyn years the Guardian wanted him replaced with somebody from the right of the Labour party

I did know this, but in the end Corbyn was their best hope of a 2nd ref really. Owen Smith was probably too remain for Labour that soon after 2016. 

12 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Momentum and Corbyn weren't particularly pro-EU in the first place

The most visible Momentum activists i was aware of were Owen Jones and Ash Sarkar, and they both seemed pretty pro-EU to me. 

16 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

they weren't the rabid remainers demanding a second referendum after the 2016 result

Labour's 2019 election manifesto had a 2nd referendum as a policy. Whether they demanded it or fell to pressure it was still there and they were electorally punished accordingly. 

[Bruce Banner]

5 hours ago, sammersmith said:

Labour's 2019 election manifesto had a 2nd referendum as a policy. Whether they demanded it or fell to pressure it was still there and they were electorally punished accordingly. 

Labour lost because they had Corbyn as leader, just as the LibDems did because of Swinson who was so deluded that she claimed she would win an overall majority .

The result of the 2019 UK election mirrored what happened in the USA. Hillary Clinton lost because she was so deeply unpopular thet even Donald Trump managed to beat her.

[winkie]

On 18/05/2020 at 15:11, dugsbody said:

The majority of people who voted to leave were in the most uncrowded areas, own their own homes, almost certainly don't have troubles getting a doctors appointment nor getting children into school.

It did look that way......why do you think that was the case??

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Anyway the good news is that Brexit will be a total disaster, and our return to the EU all the more swift.

[Bruce Banner]

51 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Anyway the good news is that Brexit will be a total disaster, and our return to the EU all the more swift.

Indeed, no Brexit wins hands down, but if it must happen then perhaps it should be as hard and acrimonious as possible... A short sharp shock followed by the dectruction of the Tory party.

Edited May 23, 2020 by Bruce Banner

[Kosmin]

7 hours ago, sammersmith said:

Oh dear another poll. The remainer weapon of choice. 

Nice that they bothered surveying a full 5,122 people this time. 

Forget polls. Momentum has 40,000 members. The Guardian has a circulation of 126,000. The vast majority of young people are neither members of Momentum nor readers of The Guardian. Even if 75% of the young voted to leave, a majority of the 25% voting remain wouldn't have been Momentum/Guardianistas!