msi Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 hours ago, crumblingcon said: I am trying to force myself not to throw too much sympathy at the Polish community living in the UK as the British have enough problems of their own. But I always get a lump in my throat as a decent, polite hard work Polish family working 80 hours plus between them with a kid as well are giving most of their wages to a landlord scumbag for a shoebox I'd quite happily swap a number of 'native' fecund oiks for Polish, or even old Asian families. Hard working, proud of their community and willing to integrate. We have lots to learn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 7 hours ago, Timm said: 1. That would be stupid. 2. That would be self destructive. Which begs a question: Do you do something silly, or do you kill yourself? Tightening lending would be self defence. Rishi has testified to a committee that he won't be able to save every business going bust. Why he should save the housing market instead beggars belief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 47 minutes ago, Si1 said: Tightening lending would be self defence. Rishi has testified to a committee that he won't be able to save every business going bust. Why he should save the housing market instead beggars belief. Lots of voters own overpriced homes that's why politicians want to prop up the market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, Warlord said: Lots of voters own overpriced homes that's why politicians want to prop up the market I know. I honestly don't think the govt can afford it this time. They've been hit by a tsunami in the rest of the economy. But again I may be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Si1 said: I know. I honestly don't think the govt can afford it this time. They've been hit by a tsunami in the rest of the economy. But again I may be wrong. HTB is supposed be finished in 2021 I fully expect them to renew it. There are also a dozen other schemes the government has someone posted them here, did you see it? Then you have QE from the BoE and I fully expect them to do that. again. However I think this time it won't matter. This recession is going to be a lot worse than 2008, Edited May 21, 2020 by Warlord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Si1 said: I know. I honestly don't think the govt can afford it this time. They've been hit by a tsunami in the rest of the economy. But again I may be wrong. Neither do I. But they can't afford not to either. So, something is going to break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, Timm said: Neither do I. But they can't afford not to either. So, something is going to break. They want to prop up the market at all costs. It''s their number 1 priority. Never mind schools and hospitals we need HPI! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, Timm said: Neither do I. But they can't afford not to either. So, something is going to break. I completely disagree with the bold point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Lots of up-to-date stats re property coming to market, number of fall throughs etc: https://propertyindustryeye.com/volumes-of-new-instructions-and-sales-agreed-rise-but-so-do-price-reductions-and-fall-throughs/ Firstly, price reductions of property on the market for sale have risen in volume in the last week by 198%, from 2,050 to 6,115. This provides a very early indication that sellers may well have to reduce the price of their property in order to get a sale agreed. Secondly, the level of fallen-through transactions has risen very sharply in the last week by 163%. from 2,447 to 6,428. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crumblingcon Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 59 minutes ago, Si1 said: I know. I honestly don't think the govt can afford it this time. They've been hit by a tsunami in the rest of the economy. But again I may be wrong. I think maybe the UK needs to start opening a few German history books and read up of the post WW1 hyper inflation, caused by over printing to pay striking workers. A century has passed now and it still troubles Germans to the point they will base financial policies and quote that period in time and that it should never happen again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 13 hours ago, MARTINX9 said: You really have upset those poor landlords Nick - especially when you called them leeches and parasites profiting off the hard work of others with less capital! Still sometimes the truth hurts! Your humble servant ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Si1 said: I completely disagree with the bold point If they allow a collapse in the nominal price of houses, we are looking at multiple failures in the banking sector, the pension sector and in the lives of millions. Even if the Tories can do the right thing and look beyond the next election, they will be petrified of systemic collapse - they simply can't risk it. Personally, I suspect they will try and limit the collapse to real prices, but even that approach comes with enormous risks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crumblingcon Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, nickb1 said: Your humble servant ? Where was this at ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I think Mr Market is going to decide in the end. The rest is just delay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, crumblingcon said: Where was this at ? it's all the way through and I just added some more ... OK maybe not so humble ? Edited May 21, 2020 by nickb1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crumblingcon Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 34 minutes ago, nickb1 said: it's all the way through and I just added some more ... OK maybe not so humble ? I just love these landlord threads on those property websites ? All the crying and wailing from them, and like someone put it "if it's that bad just get out of it and get a real job" There really is no argument they can give that's valid, and I have heard the lot, "it's my only income".. so f*****g what. You always get those posts as well "me and my tenant have a wonderful relationship, we even coffee together once every few months", talk about patronising. The reasons that they give for the continued existence of the rental market gets more ludicrous by the day, quite simply it was at one time the easiest money going and now it is slowly coming to an end, they cannot bare the thought of being a wage slave again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Timm said: If they allow a collapse in the nominal price of houses, we are looking at multiple failures in the banking sector, the pension sector and in the lives of millions. Not sure my idea of the scale of falls is the same as yours. Plus this time they'll prop up banks where necessary without paying bankers bonuses and without joke schemes such as support for mortgage interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, crumblingcon said: I just love these landlord threads on those property websites ? All the crying and wailing from them, and like someone put it "if it's that bad just get out of it and get a real job" There really is no argument they can give that's valid, and I have heard the lot, "it's my only income".. so f*****g what. You always get those posts as well "me and my tenant have a wonderful relationship, we even coffee together once every few months", talk about patronising. The reasons that they give for the continued existence of the rental market gets more ludicrous by the day, quite simply it was at one time the easiest money going and now it is slowly coming to an end, they cannot bare the thought of being a wage slave again. "It's an unregulated investment, you have and deserve no protection from economic risk" "No, it's like the Holocaust" "??" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crumblingcon Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, Si1 said: "It's an unregulated investment, you have and deserve no protection from economic risk" "No, it's like the Holocaust" "??" Oh don't get me started on her again ? 1. Yesterday.. we are great business people who through skill and hard work made money. 2. Today .... It's getting harder and now horrible, please government, make it nice again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Si1 said: If they allow a collapse in the nominal price of houses, we are looking at multiple failures in the banking sector, the pension sector and in the lives of millions. IMHO ... There's something in this, but given that the housing market accounts for so much of the money supply (ie money is created via bank loans, and most of this in the UK seems to be for property). However, this is just an argument for other policies to prevent a generalised debt deflation. We can have a HPC and avoid debt deflation if money supply is maintained by other means - deficit financed infrastructure and social spending, including underwriting pensions. If the BofE can print money for QE (whoever asked for that to be "paid back"?) why not for productive and social purposes? the financial sector does not want this and will fight to prevent it because it wants to control money and debt, for its own power and resources. Ergo, it's all political. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Timm said: If they allow a collapse in the nominal price of houses, we are looking at multiple failures in the banking sector, the pension sector and in the lives of millions. Even if the Tories can do the right thing and look beyond the next election, they will be petrified of systemic collapse - they simply can't risk it. Personally, I suspect they will try and limit the collapse to real prices, but even that approach comes with enormous risks. Why would a bank fail because the housing sector collapses? The customer took a loan for £500k and chose to buy a house with it, if the house falls to £250k that's their problem. In Ireland they introduced 200% mortgages to keep people like that in their debt rather than take the loss. At present, new mortgage products coming online in the last few days suggest banks are still willing to offer short term fixes on low rates (under 1.5%) to customers at 60% ltv. 15 hours ago, Voice of Doom said: Seems like lenders are caught between a (Northern) rock and a hard place. Northern Rock customers are still repaying their mortgages 13 years later - from a recent article in mse the majority of northern rock customers who took 125% mortgages still haven't repaid the extra 25% and started to repay the original 100% valuation. https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/rock-and-a-hard-place/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickb1 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, regprentice said: Why would a bank fail because the housing sector collapses? because their collateral is worth less? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Timm said: If they allow a collapse in the nominal price of houses, we are looking at multiple failures in the banking sector, the pension sector and in the lives of millions. What do you mean by "the pension sector"? And why are nominal house prices anything to do with it? Pension schemes don't invest in residential property? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, nickb1 said: because their collateral is worth less? That's not in itself a problem. As long as you repay the loan it doesn't matter what your house is worth. Many banks sell their mortgages as SPVs or FVCs. They bundle them up and sell them onto funds. So many banks won't even have the mortgages they sold a few years ago on their books anymore The real driver for a bank to panic is the impaired loan causing them to hold more capital under the Basel rules. This will trigger them to clear mortgages off their balance sheet into SPVs as many did in 2008. I see the American govt has a scheme with $200BN put aside to buy mortgage backed securities from US banks to stop their value collapsing. I'd imagine something similar would happen here. Values drop, banks bundle their bad loans into funds, and the govt buys them in the hope they can sell them in a the future at a profit. Just like the circa £45Bn of shares in RBS that still haven't turned a profit in 13 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 7 hours ago, Si1 said: Tightening lending would be self defence. Rishi has testified to a committee that he won't be able to save every business going bust. Why he should save the housing market instead beggars belief. He's a banker, first and always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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