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Estate agents have been put at the heart of Britain's recovery. We should be worried


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Guardian goes bear

Off we go again, restarting an economy built on the quicksands of ever-inflating property wealth. After the crash of 2008, quantitative easingaccelerated investment in already existing bricks and mortar, at the expense of falling investment in industry or anything else that might fuel our dismal productivity growth.

Today, again, the property industry is calling for the suspension of all stamp duty to kickstart the market. Britain already taxes hard-grafting work far more than unearned wealth. Tax on property and accumulated wealth has been eased time and again in the last decade’s budgets: families now pass on homes untaxed altogether, regardless of massive lifetime capital gifts.

Tax cuts on the sale of houses are piously claimed in the name of passing wealth onto the next generation, butinflating house prices benefit the older generation, while young people are locked out of the housing market. Angus Hanton, the co-founder of the Intergenerational Foundation, says a rising property market is the last thing the young need: “Young people need lower house prices and Covid-19 might make this possible. That means embracing falling house prices rather than protecting wealthy oldies in large homes.” Young first-time buyers already pay no stamp duty on properties worth up to £300,000, and a low rate on those worth up to £500,000. A stamp duty holiday subsidises buyers of expensive homes.

Estate agents have been put at the heart of Britain's recovery. We should be worried

 

 

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Man up you lot.

The estimated cost of this covid lockdown debacle is approx £300Bn, and thats excluding a second second wave. This will need to be repaid (if anyone is lending) in the midst of the worst recession in living history...perhaps the worst ever on record.

The Chancellor will not be giving any tax breaks, he cant afford them.

Even if he does, the loss of wealth from these islands will be unprecedented.

We will not return to "normal".

In light of these systemic problems, how are current house prices to be maintained?

Prices are set at the margins.

A pile of serviced bricks and mortar in the UK will not be commanding the same share of the worlds wealth as it did in the past.

Prices will fall dramatically...even if not in nominal terms.

 

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1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

Man up you lot.

The estimated cost of this covid lockdown debacle is approx £300Bn, and thats excluding a second second wave. This will need to be repaid (if anyone is lending) in the midst of the worst recession in living history...perhaps the worst ever on record.

The Chancellor will not be giving any tax breaks, he cant afford them.

Even if he does, the loss of wealth from these islands will be unprecedented.

We will not return to "normal".

In light of these systemic problems, how are current house prices to be maintained?

Prices are set at the margins.

A pile of serviced bricks and mortar in the UK will not be commanding the same share of the worlds wealth as it did in the past.

Prices will fall dramatically...even if not in nominal terms.

 

I've always tried to keep my expectations in check.re. the size of falls. However, it's getting increasingly hard to see how what is coming is not just a HPC but a paradigm shift. Maybe one akin to 1979 or 1945. Perhaps it won't be apparent for a while like a "pregnant widow": the point at which the old order has given way, the new one not yet born.

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2 hours ago, shlomo said:

Why do Estate agents get special treatment, buying a house at the moment is the last thing on my mind, i am waiting for the big one.

Because the property market is king.

If property fell and people actually defaulted on mortgages/commercial property loans,  then the entire financial system the elite rely for unearned gains would collapse

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8 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Because the property market is king.

If property fell and people actually defaulted on mortgages/commercial property loans,  then the entire financial system the elite rely for unearned gains would collapse

good. 

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nice quote 

 

 

"Today, again, the property industry is calling for the suspension of all stamp duty to kickstart the market."

Quite right. After all, the property industry has had minimal intervention to date to help it.

Apart, that is, from Dual income mortgages, Interest only mortgages, buy-to-let tax advantages and unregulated lending, lowest ever interest rates, relatively lower Basel capital requirements/risk weightings for property backed assets, Funding for Lending, NewBuy Guarantee, FirstBuy Scheme, Homebuy, Help to Buy equity loans, Help to Buy mortgage guarantee, Shared Ownership, Housing Benefit, Support for Mortgage Interest payments, Build now pay later scheme, New Homes Bonus, Affordable Homes Programme, Get Britain Building Fund, Builders Finance Fund, Right to Buy, Proposed building standard and regulation cost cutting, Looser residential planning approval rules than for offices/commercial property, Releasing more public land for private rather than public uplift, New homes zero-rated for VAT, Build to Rent Fund, Stamp duty reforms, Rental Deposit Loan Scheme, Help to Buy ISA, main home inheritance tax allowance, 'Discounted' starter homes, Expropriated HA properties, Housing Growth Partnership,  40% HTB-London, blah blah, blah...

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8 hours ago, longgone said:

nice quote 

 

 

"Today, again, the property industry is calling for the suspension of all stamp duty to kickstart the market."

Quite right. After all, the property industry has had minimal intervention to date to help it.

Apart, that is, from Dual income mortgages, Interest only mortgages, buy-to-let tax advantages and unregulated lending, lowest ever interest rates, relatively lower Basel capital requirements/risk weightings for property backed assets, Funding for Lending, NewBuy Guarantee, FirstBuy Scheme, Homebuy, Help to Buy equity loans, Help to Buy mortgage guarantee, Shared Ownership, Housing Benefit, Support for Mortgage Interest payments, Build now pay later scheme, New Homes Bonus, Affordable Homes Programme, Get Britain Building Fund, Builders Finance Fund, Right to Buy, Proposed building standard and regulation cost cutting, Looser residential planning approval rules than for offices/commercial property, Releasing more public land for private rather than public uplift, New homes zero-rated for VAT, Build to Rent Fund, Stamp duty reforms, Rental Deposit Loan Scheme, Help to Buy ISA, main home inheritance tax allowance, 'Discounted' starter homes, Expropriated HA properties, Housing Growth Partnership,  40% HTB-London, blah blah, blah...

Jeez. I knew there was a lot of market manipulation, but when you see it in a long list like that. It's a f***ing crime! I despair for this world sometimes.

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I can't see the Treasury cutting stamp duty - there is no money left - and then freezing nurses wages. First time buyers outside London and the south east are already pretty much exempt anyway.

Tax rises are more likely and a cut back in pension reliefs. 

Arguably lower prices and more transactions might be a better way to kickstart the market long term - more transactions meaning moving house is not such a costly choice - might even raise revenues.

Edited by MARTINX9
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8 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Because the property market is king.

If property fell and people actually defaulted on mortgages/commercial property loans,  then the entire financial system the elite rely for unearned gains would collapse

That's what actually needs to happen and will happen at some point anyway. 

Maybe now is the time to stop chasing worthless currency that a chosen few get to create out of thin air in order to wage fiancial warfare over the 99%.

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8 hours ago, longgone said:

nice quote 

 

 

"Today, again, the property industry is calling for the suspension of all stamp duty to kickstart the market."

Quite right. After all, the property industry has had minimal intervention to date to help it.

Apart, that is, from Dual income mortgages, Interest only mortgages, buy-to-let tax advantages and unregulated lending, lowest ever interest rates, relatively lower Basel capital requirements/risk weightings for property backed assets, Funding for Lending, NewBuy Guarantee, FirstBuy Scheme, Homebuy, Help to Buy equity loans, Help to Buy mortgage guarantee, Shared Ownership, Housing Benefit, Support for Mortgage Interest payments, Build now pay later scheme, New Homes Bonus, Affordable Homes Programme, Get Britain Building Fund, Builders Finance Fund, Right to Buy, Proposed building standard and regulation cost cutting, Looser residential planning approval rules than for offices/commercial property, Releasing more public land for private rather than public uplift, New homes zero-rated for VAT, Build to Rent Fund, Stamp duty reforms, Rental Deposit Loan Scheme, Help to Buy ISA, main home inheritance tax allowance, 'Discounted' starter homes, Expropriated HA properties, Housing Growth Partnership,  40% HTB-London, blah blah, blah...

Can't claim originality. I lifted the list from HPC a while back, mainly because I could barely believe it until I'd re-read it a few times. When I saw the article it triggered a memory so I hunted it out and reposted it.

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8 hours ago, longgone said:

nice quote 

 

 

"Today, again, the property industry is calling for the suspension of all stamp duty to kickstart the market."

Quite right. After all, the property industry has had minimal intervention to date to help it.

Apart, that is, from Dual income mortgages, Interest only mortgages, buy-to-let tax advantages and unregulated lending, lowest ever interest rates, relatively lower Basel capital requirements/risk weightings for property backed assets, Funding for Lending, NewBuy Guarantee, FirstBuy Scheme, Homebuy, Help to Buy equity loans, Help to Buy mortgage guarantee, Shared Ownership, Housing Benefit, Support for Mortgage Interest payments, Build now pay later scheme, New Homes Bonus, Affordable Homes Programme, Get Britain Building Fund, Builders Finance Fund, Right to Buy, Proposed building standard and regulation cost cutting, Looser residential planning approval rules than for offices/commercial property, Releasing more public land for private rather than public uplift, New homes zero-rated for VAT, Build to Rent Fund, Stamp duty reforms, Rental Deposit Loan Scheme, Help to Buy ISA, main home inheritance tax allowance, 'Discounted' starter homes, Expropriated HA properties, Housing Growth Partnership,  40% HTB-London, blah blah, blah...

Please Sir, can I have some more.;)

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9 hours ago, Byron said:

I wonder what the effect of CV19 will be on foreign buyers.

China has been hit hard, I don't know about Singapore etc.

I can see foreign capital no longer coming to somewhere with a lockdown, no wonder tax receipts are down so much, we have a spend and borrow economic policy 

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13 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Today, again, the property industry is calling for the suspension of all stamp duty to kickstart the market. Britain already taxes hard-grafting work far more than unearned wealth. Tax on property and accumulated wealth has been eased time and again in the last decade’s budgets: families now pass on homes untaxed altogether, regardless of massive lifetime capital gifts.

Stamp duty is a tax on moving.

13 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

A stamp duty holiday subsidises buyers of expensive homes.

A stamp duty holiday temporarily removes an arbitrary cost of moving.

Anyone who is serious about advocating higher taxes on property and accumulated wealth should advocate higher levels of taxes on things like capital gains (especially on the sale of properties other than primary residence) and inheritance. They should also consider calling for more council tax bands, LVT and wealth taxes and more taxes to discourage BTL.

There should not be any stamp duty on a primary residence. The surcharge for second homes/BTLs should be much higher than 3%, and should increase for 3rd home etc.

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2 hours ago, Shrink Proof said:

Can't claim originality. I lifted the list from HPC a while back, mainly because I could barely believe it until I'd re-read it a few times. When I saw the article it triggered a memory so I hunted it out and reposted it.

That's the free market that.

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Please Sir, can I have some more.;)

Nowtmuch good for those without a job, I guess all the above is held up with furlough.

I hope the economy has deep foundations ?

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2 hours ago, Shrink Proof said:

Can't claim originality. I lifted the list from HPC a while back, mainly because I could barely believe it until I'd re-read it a few times. When I saw the article it triggered a memory so I hunted it out and reposted it.

Well done nonetheless for resurrecting it.

I remember the original, I printed it off and is kept in my drawer at work, should I ever go back there.

It filled an A4 but the funny thing was it was out of date in seconds, people kept adding to it.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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