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RICS Survey. All good for us - Bricks and slaughter


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RICS surveys have to be accurate and reflect the local, national and world wide economy. Over estimated valuations have severe financial implications for the surveyor and lender .

so they will err on the low side.

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3 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

so they will err on the low side.

Let’s hope so. Problem is, I had one done in mid March and they refused to give a value (RICS told them not to). Unless they start to give valuations, the price information isn’t being properly shared and it will slow down the price discovery.

What we all need is something official to point to so as to be able to say “look, prices are falling”. Once they start going they will snowball. ️ 

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Anyone that does not understand the powers of sentiment and more importantly for many of us negative sentiment needs to start doing so now. The first -10 to -15% fall has as good as already be written in to the reduced price of property in the coming months., that's in the bag. But I can assure once it gets to say -15% the worried voices will then be looking at the coming next few months, the clever ones will click that dropping another -3% to -5% might be the wise thing to do after what they have just seen, and then it continues every few months until it becomes the norm and they go to far with it...

And not forgetting the beauty of negative sentiment on it's own, there will be more than enough economic constraints to stick a spanner in the works. I repeat yet again, if you are looking at just -30% falls in property in a full cycle you could be well underestimating what is heading our way

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1 minute ago, crumblingcon said:

...

And not forgetting the beauty of negative sentiment on it's own, there will be more than enough economic constraints to stick a spanner in the works. I 

This is the thing. A lot of VIs and also more general commentators are attaching their predictions to a broad V-shaped economic recovery, and therefore a rapid house price bounce back inside a few years.

Don't forget the massive increase in government debts to be paid off over coming decades too, another drag on the ecomony.

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55 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Don't forget the massive increase in government debts to be paid off over coming decades too, another drag on the ecomony.

Unless they default, but that is a whole nother story

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19 minutes ago, Locke said:

Unless they default, but that is a whole nother story

That would also be a drag on the economy. Although different people would get dragged.

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3 hours ago, neon tetra said:

Let’s hope so. Problem is, I had one done in mid March and they refused to give a value (RICS told them not to). Unless they start to give valuations, the price information isn’t being properly shared and it will slow down the price discovery.

What we all need is something official to point to so as to be able to say “look, prices are falling”. Once they start going they will snowball. ️ 

RICS determine prices, not sellers .    

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Quote

Around 80% of the contributors to the survey saw both buyers and sellers pull out of transactions, resulting in the newly agreed sales balance for April falling to -92%, down from -68% in March.

A net balance of -93% of respondents reported a decline in new buyer enquiries, as house prices are anticipated to be lower as the market begins to reopen.

Following three months of positive readings, the RICS headline house price balance fell to a net balance of -21% respondents noting a decline in prices. Around 35% of participants think that house prices will be up to 4% lower when the market reopens, with more than 40% taking the view that prices could fall by more than 4%.

https://www.propertyweek.com/news/rics-survey-reveals-damage-to-housing-market/5107945.article

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2 hours ago, Locke said:

Can't spell slaughter without laughter.

But seriously, there is unfortunately going to be so much misery and I don't think gloating is honourable.

Absolutely not. We will be subtle and circumspect about our gloating.

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16 hours ago, neon tetra said:

Absolutely not. We will be subtle and circumspect about our gloating.

Bollax to that.  When this baby finally dies I will be rubbing everyone's noses in it the same way they have for going on 20 years.

 

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1 hour ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

There will be a lot of “pensions” that will go to pot, back passages going unwiped and jigs I will have to dance.

Lets hope you dancing shoes see the light of day next year ? 

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6 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

"Jeff, how's your BTL portfolio going these days?"

Walk toward the sea, Jeff. Walk to the sea. And when you get to the water's edge... keep going.

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Walk toward the sea, Jeff. Walk to the sea. And when you get to the water's edge... keep going.

Cruel, but fair.

Fec the lot of them.  They've sat there for 2 decades now thinking they are financial genii when in reality they were bit parts in a movie for a few people make some serious wedge.

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On 14/05/2020 at 07:07, neon tetra said:

https://www.cityam.com/government-urged-to-help-property-market-recover-amid-uk-house-price-slump/
 

AKA don’t let price discovery happen in the housing “market”.

Exactly my thoughts.

We can't possibly allow the natural course of supply and demand to take place. 

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  • 416 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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