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Lifting the lockdown won't save the doomed housing market


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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy/lifting-lockdown-wont-save-doomed-housing-market/

 

He added: “If [house price index] providers publish inaccurate data, that could alter behaviour. At worst, a false reading showing a large house price fall could, by itself, trigger a more serious housing market slump.”

The property market’s emergence from lockdown will be broken: blind, straight-jacketed, and wearing plenty of PPE.

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Posted (edited)

The one thing I find fascinating about this article is the fear through error or being spot on correct and of making the fatal decision of showing data that might highlight  that UK property prices are falling in value and creating a snowball effect downwards

I, as have many others, held the opinion for quite a while  that there is a great fear out there of the ending of two decades of positive sentiment, even just a month or two fills them with fear knowing the consequences.

Edited by crumblingcon
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What about the danger of inaccurately reporting higher house prices, causing some people to get a bigger mortgage than they should and later facing ruination and have their children starve, because of the financial burden?

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14 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

The one thing I find fascinating about this article is the fear through error or being spot correct of making the fatal decision of showing data that might highlight  that UK property prices are falling in value and creating a snowball effect downwards

I, as have many others, held the opinion for quite a while  that there is a great fear out there of the ending of two decades of positive sentiment, even just a month or two fills them with fear knowing the consequences.

Do you remember when Kirsty Alsop went mental at the founders of the hpc website, for, well, starting an hpc website?

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4 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Do you remember when Kirsty Alsop went mental at the founders of the hpc website, for, well, starting an hpc website?

I remember a few years ago there was a BBC Radio 5 Live presenter (Victoria Derbyshire?) of a phone-in programme who described a caller as 'vile' for even suggesting that lower house prices might be a good thing in some ways.

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If I recall correctly, in 2009 the falls of around 20% ? really wasn't in the TV news, or at least very sparsely  reported  I'm sure that was no accident, I fear the same this time round.

Has Kirsty Allslop got serious skin in the game by way of a large BTL portfolio?

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13 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

I remember a few years ago there was a BBC Radio 5 Live presenter (Victoria Derbyshire?) of a phone-in programme who described a caller as 'vile' for even suggesting that lower house prices might be a good thing in some ways.

That's the sharp elbowed inherited upper middle classes defending their tribe.

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

What about the danger of inaccurately reporting higher house prices, causing some people to get a bigger mortgage than they should and later facing ruination and have their children starve, because of the financial burden?

Apply for compo.

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1 hour ago, 12fixer said:

If I recall correctly, in 2009 the falls of around 20% ? really wasn't in the TV news, or at least very sparsely  reported  I'm sure that was no accident, I fear the same this time round.

Has Kirsty Allslop got serious skin in the game by way of a large BTL portfolio?

Somewhere I heard that she and partner own 12 properties but no mention of renting any out. Can't recall source so can't vouch for accuracy, not that it would surprise me.

When that looney Cameron made her a Tory housing adviser about the first thing she said was that multiple ownership of homes should not be curtailed.

 

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1 hour ago, Diver Dan said:

I remember a few years ago there was a BBC Radio 5 Live presenter (Victoria Derbyshire?) of a phone-in programme who described a caller as 'vile' for even suggesting that lower house prices might be a good thing in some ways.

That rings a bell with me too, I think it was her.

She's unprofessional imo. I once saw her report on something in a state of utter rage, looked like she was going to burst. 

Kirkwood was the same the morning after the EU referendum, allegedly, but I couldn't be bothered to view it on You Tube.

I'm not interested in the personal politics of BBC or any presenters, they had much more presence when they kept them to themselves.

 

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43 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/coronavirus-impact-on-uk-house-prices.html

UK house prices to fall on coronavirus, but analysts don’t expect a 2008-like collapse

Im thinking they didnt really fall in London/SE for any meaningful period of time. This time may be different? Analysts know sh*t, as do we. Let's wait and see.

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13 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Im thinking they didnt really fall in London/SE for any meaningful period of time. This time may be different? Analysts know sh*t, as do we. Let's wait and see.

They went down a bit but not huge falls. when i organised the purchase of my mothers place in 2008 she saved 22% from 2007 compared to next door. 

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3 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

I remember a few years ago there was a BBC Radio 5 Live presenter (Victoria Derbyshire?) of a phone-in programme who described a caller as 'vile' for even suggesting that lower house prices might be a good thing in some ways.

Another one on the list.

Looking on the bright side, the more properties you own, the more 'money' you will see disappear in the following months.

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Wow in the south? That was pretty good going

not bad although still more than what 2006 prices were.  

i see bigger drops this time as we have moved on substantially from 2008 prices where have earnings have not. 

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18 minutes ago, longgone said:

not bad although still more than what 2006 prices were.  

i see bigger drops this time as we have moved on substantially from 2008 prices where have earnings have not. 

"This time it will be different... " ... yeah, the falls will be precipitously higher!

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So furlough is now extended.  What's going to happen when it comes to mortgage negotiations and people still on furlough?

Our married friends both in hospitality and have an IO mortgage.  One is furloughed, the other self employed. Their mortgage due in August.  Due to no schools and grand parents in lockdown one has to stay at home for childcare - it makes sense for him cos he's furloughed.  He's lost his car allowance, monthly bonus, annual bonus and then tax and pension come out of the £2500 furlough max.  Her business has all but stopped.  After tax they're living on about 30% of their original income for the foreseeable future!

What will the bank say regards to a mortgage app whilst on furlough or worse, only one income because of the need to stay home for childcare?

Surely this is going to be a wide spread issue.  The mortgage app can only take in to account one wage under these circumstances or two wages that have been seriously depleted...and not to mention the apparent issue they will have with LTV and a top up deposit required. 

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9 minutes ago, MinistryMan said:

I just can't fathom how house prices won't be affected (downward) without significant gov intervention over and above furlough, such as the gov dabbling in the mortgage market directly

I completely agree with you.

I was queueing for Tesco this morning and was outside an ea for a minute or so, they appear to be spring bounce house prices, asking prices sharply up!. Interesting....

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14 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I completely agree with you.

I was queueing for Tesco this morning and was outside an ea for a minute or so, they appear to be spring bounce house prices, asking prices sharply up!. Interesting....

Desperately trying to artificially raise the level house prices were at prior to the impending crash, not going to fool anyone.

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2 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Desperately trying to artificially raise the level house prices were at prior to the impending crash, not going to fool anyone.

I think these may actually be above that....

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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