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What economic measures are likely as a result of cv?


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2 hours ago, Trampa501 said:

Tax increases? Job creation projects? More helicopter money?

We're entering a scary new world, and few know what the answers will be.

You mean central govt measures or local level? 

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1 hour ago, shlomo said:

I can see prices going up, lots of inflation.

It's already here imo.

Fancy biscuits £3.60, one week on £8.00. (come from Amazon - or this time they didn't). Having a laugh territory.

Block of good cheese £2.90, +10 days £3.39.

Fruit juice non concentrate £1.79 + 1 week £2.20.

Last two came from our local shop which inevitably isn't that cheap (but is for some things).

Only bought the cheese as a result of the prices.

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32 minutes ago, adamLancs said:

I should add, nobody knows if GMO is responsible for these virus, and nobody cares. 

Remember that somebody said "think twice about GMO", here on HPC. I'd like to be the first.

GMO veggies as a source of zoonotic viruses? interesting.

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Seriously, why waste too much time trying to work it out, but to be  fair in early lockdown I had my A4 notebook out and tried to do the maths, ended up more confused than when I first started, who knows where the inevitable panic will take us, so I am just not bothering second guessing now.

I am treating life right now as the calm before the storm, in fact I am going much further than that and treat life like the bliss before the storm. I am as prepared as I can be for when life gets tougher,  I have been preparing for this for years now, and it really is going to get tougher all round for the vast majority, even for me.

I have plenty of time now, read the books that have been sat there for ages, great exercise in empty country roads, doing that online course, cooking lessons online again, and summer is coming, and I am getting free money to do all that. Make the most of it Guys while you can, the downturn will be here before you know it.

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2 hours ago, Orb said:

Mumsnet is right then. 

If they're saying house prices will go up, they're off their heads. Anything denominated in debt (cars, houses) will fall in price.

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16 hours ago, Bluestone59 said:

It's already here imo.

Fancy biscuits £3.60, one week on £8.00. (come from Amazon - or this time they didn't). Having a laugh territory.

Block of good cheese £2.90, +10 days £3.39.

Fruit juice non concentrate £1.79 + 1 week £2.20.

Last two came from our local shop which inevitably isn't that cheap (but is for some things).

Only bought the cheese as a result of the prices.

Yep, have noticed this a lot in the standard supermarkets. Once an item is priced above the one pound slot, they seem to find it easy to increase the price by a good percentage eg Bakewell tarts once 1.20 for six are now 1.80

A bit awkward atm for me to get to Aldi or Lidl without using public transport. But I'll have to work out how to get back into the habit.

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I think the price rises in food are largely a result of price gouging somewhere in the supply chain. I doubt the effects of a devalued currency in terms of price inflation would be felt that quickly, unless the food comes from abroad.

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There will be wealth transfer to pay for it all.

Wealth transfer has to come from people with money and go to people without.

So the middle class with savings will be taxed to support the people with no savings/indebted.

There is no other outcome.

Either this tax will occur as direct, or through QE. But it has to occur.

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18 hours ago, shlomo said:

I can see prices going up, lots of inflation.

That will not help anyone.....thousands would not repay their debt, rents......will not travel or spend on anything other than food and heat.....the country would fail big time....crime would become a problem, some would commit crime to get a warm cell and food in their bellies.;)

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17 minutes ago, winkie said:

That will not help anyone.....thousands would not repay their debt, rents......will not travel or spend on anything other than food and heat.....the country would fail big time....crime would become a problem, some would commit crime to get a warm cell and food in their bellies.;)

Debts typically issued at a fixed interest rate. Even overdrafts and credit cards have recently been rationalised by the FSA so should remain fairly fixed. So in this scenario the debt should become a smaller proportion of those households outgoings... At least as long as the general inflation triggers wage inflation as well. 

I can't forsee the kind of catastrophic collapse you are envisioning as long as we have such a generous welfare state, for families at least. 

I do think there is limited appetite for tax rises, at least among middle class earners with families in and around the 50-60k tax trap where the effective tax rate can be 58%, and that's assuming you dont have a student loan at another 9% on top of that, and possibly another couple of grand if you live under one of the devolved tax systems. 

Edited by regprentice
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19 hours ago, shlomo said:

I can see prices going up, lots of inflation.

Inflation (not going to happen IMO) just makes it harder to service existing large debt, as other costs get higher, and property prices are already way up, no way wages are going to take up the slack from cheap credit in this economic climate.

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1 minute ago, warpig said:

Yeah fixed at 40%!!!

Do you think they'd have the balls to increase that rate? Even if interest rates were 10%? I can't see them doing it.... But I'm usually wrong! 

Whether it's good or bad, I'd say it was pretty fixed as a cost, which is relevant to the original point 

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14 minutes ago, winkie said:

That will not help anyone.....thousands would not repay their debt, rents......will not travel or spend on anything other than food and heat.....the country would fail big time....crime would become a problem, some would commit crime to get a warm cell and food in their bellies.;)

If things get bad enough, yes.

I recall a case where the accused of a minor offence pleaded with the beak to be imprisoned. He didn't want to be sent home for Xmas because he couldn't buy any food.

Not recent, and there are food banks now.

Didn't Bernard Hill headbutt the bloke from Z Cars in Boys from the Blackstuff so as to get a cell for the night?

Things might be better now though I suspect the problems are still around if you look hard enough. That Poverty Ambassador bloke thought so.

 

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51 minutes ago, winkie said:

That will not help anyone.....thousands would not repay their debt, rents......will not travel or spend on anything other than food and heat.....the country would fail big time....crime would become a problem, some would commit crime to get a warm cell and food in their bellies.;)

Food prices and car prices will go up, house prices will come down

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The government now has a list of the public sector employees we can survive without. Just about everyone in the public sector currently having a paid holiday at the taxpayer's expense may be on the chopping block. There are exceptions, like teachers.

I think inflation will really pick up when the lockdown ends. Food and tat that was made in China should increase in price. Othere prices may fall, at least for a time.

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i have seen quite drastic inflation on some american branded garden tools i have had my eye on from £150 to £230, and that's only been in the span of a week. And i expect that's based on a shipment coming in having the usual shipping delay.

That's only a 53% increase.

inflation wave is coming, but you can bet that they wont reflect that in the basket of goods. 

As per usual houses will go up but probably less than inflation (real terms falls) which is fine as long as you don't only having savings in cash. If you do you will of already lost a lot of value. 

Mortgage holders have had a lot of the value of their mortgages wiped out. 

Not sure how long its going to takes wages to increase, but sadly most of the time you cant claim your wage increase until you move company anyway. So what im saying is that yes wages are going up, but if you stay in one place, the company will keep the wage increase you should of got to add to their bottom line. 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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