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70% Government funded - My maths can't be right


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I saw in the Daily Mail that over 50% were on state support. Reading through I could see they'd double counted so wanted to run the numbers myself and see how many in this country were effectively on the governments books/not paying income tax, I also wanted to include the sizable number of public sector workers who's employment relies ultimately on the tax revenue collected from the rest of the population. 

Furloughed  6,300,000 - Government data. 

0-19  15,098,000 - 2011 census data - Yes you can get a job at 16 but how realistically how many will (and how many will be paying tax in)

65+ 10,376,000 - 2011 census data - I acknowledge that some will be working/paying tax however most won't pay in more than their state pension (They've paid in, In the same way Mr Madoffs' investors paid in.)

Economically inactive 8,370,000 - ONS data - Carers, housewives, disabled, too lazy to pretend to look for work etc, BTL landlords. Certainly won't be paying tax. 

Public sector workers 5,390,000 - ONS Data - Admittedly there might be some crossover with furloughed workers but likely minimal. 

Unemployed 1,364,000 ONS Data - Most will be signing on or at least not paying tax (I ignored counting UC claims as it would crossover other categories too much).

So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Council estate capitalist said:

So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government.

That's what happens when you ship all the real jobs overseas.

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I think that makes sense, ive got to say I was quite surprised to hear Boris saying we are going to relax restrictions, seem as he nearly died from it... He must be really scared for the future for his young and growing family

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4 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

I saw in the Daily Mail that over 50% were on state support. Reading through I could see they'd double counted so wanted to run the numbers myself and see how many in this country were effectively on the governments books/not paying income tax, I also wanted to include the sizable number of public sector workers who's employment relies ultimately on the tax revenue collected from the rest of the population. 

Furloughed  6,300,000 - Government data. 

0-19  15,098,000 - 2011 census data - Yes you can get a job at 16 but how realistically how many will (and how many will be paying tax in)

65+ 10,376,000 - 2011 census data - I acknowledge that some will be working/paying tax however most won't pay in more than their state pension (They've paid in, In the same way Mr Madoffs' investors paid in.)

Economically inactive 8,370,000 - ONS data - Carers, housewives, disabled, too lazy to pretend to look for work etc, BTL landlords. Certainly won't be paying tax. 

Public sector workers 5,390,000 - ONS Data - Admittedly there might be some crossover with furloughed workers but likely minimal. 

Unemployed 1,364,000 ONS Data - Most will be signing on or at least not paying tax (I ignored counting UC claims as it would crossover other categories too much).

So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government. 

 

Yes and that is what I am paying close to £2000 in taxes each month. Yet many sit on their arses day-in-day-out producing nothing more than a new bathroom for their mummy when she asks.

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Thatcher started the ball rolling. Manufacturing was decimated in her era. She asked sir Keith Joseph how all the lost jobs would be made up for, he replied benefits. Initially it was 'dole scroungers', that proved unpopular and so Blair and co moved into 'in work benefits. Madness of course, milked to death by employers.

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12 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

Furloughed  6,300,000 - Government data. 

0-19  15,098,000 - 2011 census data - Yes you can get a job at 16 but how realistically how many will (and how many will be paying tax in)

65+ 10,376,000 - 2011 census data - I acknowledge that some will be working/paying tax however most won't pay in more than their state pension (They've paid in, In the same way Mr Madoffs' investors paid in.)

Economically inactive 8,370,000 - ONS data - Carers, housewives, disabled, too lazy to pretend to look for work etc, BTL landlords. Certainly won't be paying tax. 

Public sector workers 5,390,000 - ONS Data - Admittedly there might be some crossover with furloughed workers but likely minimal. 

Unemployed 1,364,000 ONS Data - Most will be signing on or at least not paying tax (I ignored counting UC claims as it would crossover other categories too much).

So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government. 

Would you really count children as being "propped up the government"?  Even if there is a bit of child benefit paid to the household they will largely be supported by their parents.

Also, the economically inactive..."housewives" as you call them don't get any benefits or support for choosing not to work.  And whilst they won't be paying INCOME tax, they will still be paying VAT on everything they buy, road tax if they have a car etc. etc.

I think a better way to look at it is remove children from the equation, and look at the other 51.6m people.  The truly government funded ones are the public sector (5.4m)  retired (10.4m) Unemployed (1.4m) and - for the next few weeks only - the furloughed (6.3m) = 23.5m so about 46%.

Even then, some of the retired will have generous pensions that actually provide their income, with the state pension more of a bonus than a prop.  Even those with more modest pensions may not pay in more tax than they get back as pension, but are still relatively small net beneficiaries: a pensioner on 24k pa total pension (let's say 8k state and 12k private) will pay 3k in income tax alone.

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12 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

I saw in the Daily Mail that over 50% were on state support. Reading through I could see they'd double counted so wanted to run the numbers myself and see how many in this country were effectively on the governments books/not paying income tax, I also wanted to include the sizable number of public sector workers who's employment relies ultimately on the tax revenue collected from the rest of the population. 

Furloughed  6,300,000 - Government data. 

0-19  15,098,000 - 2011 census data - Yes you can get a job at 16 but how realistically how many will (and how many will be paying tax in)

65+ 10,376,000 - 2011 census data - I acknowledge that some will be working/paying tax however most won't pay in more than their state pension (They've paid in, In the same way Mr Madoffs' investors paid in.)

Economically inactive 8,370,000 - ONS data - Carers, housewives, disabled, too lazy to pretend to look for work etc, BTL landlords. Certainly won't be paying tax. 

Public sector workers 5,390,000 - ONS Data - Admittedly there might be some crossover with furloughed workers but likely minimal. 

Unemployed 1,364,000 ONS Data - Most will be signing on or at least not paying tax (I ignored counting UC claims as it would crossover other categories too much).

So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government. 

 

Brownian end point, followed by bust.

 

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37 minutes ago, MarkD said:

Thatcher started the ball rolling. Manufacturing was decimated in her era. She asked sir Keith Joseph how all the lost jobs would be made up for, he replied benefits. Initially it was 'dole scroungers', that proved unpopular and so Blair and co moved into 'in work benefits. Madness of course, milked to death by employers.

Thatcher left UKGOV 30 eyars ago.

There was a peak in 83ish, then things settled down.

By 1994, house prices were low in relation to wages, there was high employment and limited expensive in-work pretend work.

Then Gordon Brown became Chancellor.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Thatcher left UKGOV 30 eyars ago.

There was a peak in 83ish, then things settled down.

By 1994, house prices were low in relation to wages, there was high employment and limited expensive in-work pretend work.

Then Gordon Brown became Chancellor.

 

 

Nigel Lawson created an enormous house price bubble at the end of the 1980s, followed by a sharp crash (inevitably) and a thumping recession.

John Major inherited the disinflationary aftermath, and then George Soros thrashed the pound.

So, national humiliation was Major's principal gift to the country ensuring Blair's election with a landslide majority in 1997.

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14 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Nigel Lawson created an enormous house price bubble at the end of the 1980s, followed by a sharp crash (inevitably) and a thumping recession.

John Major inherited the disinflationary aftermath, and then George Soros thrashed the pound.

So, national humiliation was Major's principal gift to the country ensuring Blair's election with a landslide majority in 1997.

Bubble was mid 80s.

It was all over by 89.

And as far as bubble goes, it peaked ~6x earnings in London, before falling down to 3x.

Currently London is 15x earnings.

 

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Thatcher left UKGOV 30 eyars ago.

There was a peak in 83ish, then things settled down.

By 1994, house prices were low in relation to wages, there was high employment and limited expensive in-work pretend work.

Then Gordon Brown became Chancellor.

 

 

Bought my first house in 83. Up till that point they'd been pretty flat (early 80's recession). Then they went nuts right up to 89 and the big crash. Flat again throughout most of the 90's, then 97 onward whoosh! 2008 we all know about. What I never understood is why the ramping from 2012 onward took place. Anyone with half a brain could see where that would end up, and here we are! Gotta love Gordon though "no more boom and bust". What a twit!

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14 minutes ago, MarkD said:

Bought my first house in 83. Up till that point they'd been pretty flat (early 80's recession). Then they went nuts right up to 89 and the big crash. Flat again throughout most of the 90's, then 97 onward whoosh! 2008 we all know about. What I never understood is why the ramping from 2012 onward took place. Anyone with half a brain could see where that would end up, and here we are! Gotta love Gordon though "no more boom and bust". What a twit!

2012 rises is very much a low volume, London/Se thing.

In the Nothern areas I montior, not only are prices still the same as 20004ish, the sales volumes are about 1/3 of what youd expect.

HTB is a cretinous policy. Thankfully, its only a handful of people.

 

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15 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

So that's 46,898,000 out of 66,650,000 (total population) essentially being propped up by the government. 

You do not work you are being propped up by the govt and the taxpayer 

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4 hours ago, richmondtw said:

You do not work you are being propped up by the govt and the taxpayer 

That's not true though in all cases?  I have a relative who built up a business, sold it for £6 million, and now doesn't work but lives off that £6m.

At the other end, children are supported by their parents.  My son isn't propped up by the government.

Your comment oversimplifies reality.

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13 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

That's not true though in all cases?  I have a relative who built up a business, sold it for £6 million, and now doesn't work but lives off that £6m.

At the other end, children are supported by their parents.  My son isn't propped up by the government.

Your comment oversimplifies reality.

What about childcare paid by govt to parents ?

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18 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

What about childcare paid by govt to parents ?

Higher earners such as myself don't get it.  And most of those getting the benefit are also paying tax as well, so it's a case of swings and roundabouts, rather than being primaraily government supported. 

After all, we all get NHS treatment so we all get a bit back....I thought we were more looking at those who were net  withdrawers vs net contributors.

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9 hours ago, spyguy said:

Brownian end point, followed by bust.

 

Important anniversary this week, 10 years since Brown left office. Just another 40 years of blaming him for everything to go.

Edited by Dorkins
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9 hours ago, MarkD said:

What I never understood is why the ramping from 2012 onward took place. Anyone with half a brain could see where that would end up, and here we are! Gotta love Gordon though "no more boom and bust". What a twit!

Agreed. I sold my flat in 2010 due to an iffy job situation, planned to rent for a while and buy another place once the work situation eased which it did in 2013. Property prices went mental after that thanks to the props like 'Help To Debt'. :( I'm still renting. :rolleyes:

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18 minutes ago, MattW said:

Agreed. I sold my flat in 2010 due to an iffy job situation, planned to rent for a while and buy another place once the work situation eased which it did in 2013. Property prices went mental after that thanks to the props like 'Help To Debt'. :( I'm still renting. :rolleyes:

What area?

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37 minutes ago, shlomo said:

What area?

Norwich, in the county of Norfolk. Prices also kept strong due to retirees flocking the the area.

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