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IMupNorth

The Most Realistic Post For A While ...........

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This post by surveyor was in another thread, but I just had to pull it out because I know Surveyor as a long timer on here, who has earned a reputation for honesty - he has also been pretty bearish in the past and still is long term.

I'm amazed at the resilience of the market, and I still think the UK is heading for a fall. But in my part of SE Greater London, family houses are selling very quickly - I mean offers in days or a couple of weeks. This may be a spring bounce, but it's certainly a turnaround from the past 18 months, no doubt. Higher value houses (£400 - £600) are sticky, but the million pound plus market have a shortage of properties.

In short, I think this forum is very much in a minority and a real crash is some way off.

Now, here you have it from the front line - property in the South east has picked up and appears to be going up by all accounts. There is no crash scenario or sentiment on the horizon.

And let me add, that prices are still rising in the North too - asking prices are showing considerable signs of moving up since Xmas, which is a sure sign that demand is strong.

Now, the Q4 Land Reg statistics are out this week - in the past all you bears have been saying that these are the 'bible' and that they will show prices going down ......... well I'm still waiting, because once again the 'bible' is going to show you that prices are still rising.

I just don't know how much longer you lot can keep saying 'it's happening', when it clearly isn't - you are in serious denial.

:)

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Ah but. <_<

surveyor Posted on: Nov 30 2005, 01:43 PM

Just got back from a repossession, chatting at length to the estate agent whilst the locksmith worked. The agent said, a propo repossessions, that 'half' their vendors were banks. I immediately queried the 'half' bit and she confirmed the same. Even I was shocked. She says other ex colleagues in Lewisham/Sydenham area are even busier on this side of the closing down business. She also said many owners are just avoiding repossession after initial proceedings. Quality areas getting hit too. Certainly tallies with my experience. Much more of this to come. Obviously.

I'm amazed at the resilience of the market, and I still think the UK is heading for a fall.

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Re: LR figures, they lag the market by so much, I am not expecting anything significant re: lower prices but I expect the statistics to highlight that volumes continues to drop.

When are they out?

Edited by Buffer Bear

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Ok .. I'll bite.

In West Sussex there as been a dramatic increase in the number of properties up for sale in the 250-425k bracket. Many are those that didn't sell last summer ... and the pictures in Rightmove still have summer foliage. I save my "saved properties" on the 1st of ever month in an archive file for comparison later. The typical reduction is around 20-30k since they were on the market last year.

There has been a huge change in sentiment with friends and collegues. They are very aware of the debt and pension crisis facing this country.

There is a plethora of empty flats available to rent. Some are asking for £1000pcm for recently built two bed "luxury" apartments; for that one can rent a nice house instead.

There are shops closing in the centre of my local town.

I could go on but I see a huge change since 2004. It does not look good.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

There is a plethora of empty flats available to rent. Some are asking for £1000pcm for recently built two bed "luxury" apartments; for that one can rent a nice house instead.

There are shops closing in the centre of my local town.

Horsham?

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This post by surveyor was in another thread, but I just had to pull it out because I know Surveyor as a long timer on here, who has earned a reputation for honesty - he has also been pretty bearish in the past and still is long term.

Now, here you have it from the front line - property in the South east has picked up and appears to be going up by all accounts. There is no crash scenario or sentiment on the horizon.

And let me add, that prices are still rising in the North too - asking prices are showing considerable signs of moving up since Xmas, which is a sure sign that demand is strong.

Now, the Q4 Land Reg statistics are out this week - in the past all you bears have been saying that these are the 'bible' and that they will show prices going down ......... well I'm still waiting, because once again the 'bible' is going to show you that prices are still rising.

I just don't know how much longer you lot can keep saying 'it's happening', when it clearly isn't - you are in serious denial.

:)

Could the million pound plus market be under the influence of bonus season?

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I wouldn't give up hope.

When the markets going down one of the first thing that happens in the mortgage industry is that the IT contractors get their notice.

Guess who will be out of a contract soon ...

Edited by Mr Blek

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Well, can't say that seems the case here so far. The exclusive properties on my route from London/Herts border has even more For Sale boards on it now than the last time I was on it (about 2 weeks back) and only one Sold board caught my eye. Take a look, if you know the road I mean, the one with the magnificent church at one end and the pub with the high gate over the road at the other. I'm not naming the road for the sake of the vendors, but most of those properties must be 600K or a million plus each and I don't see any rush for those whatsoever, though I do see a few Sold boards for more typical houses I admit (on different roads in adjacent areas).

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Guest muttley

ImupNorth....HesdownSouth!!!!

Just because he thinks the market is resilient,or even rising along with inflation,doesn't mean it is the same everywhere.

Different areas will rise and fall at different rates.Even within those areas different properties will fare better than others.

But why are property prices in the north so similar to prices in the south? Historically this was never so.

And if you are so confidant of rising prices in your chosen area, why do you spend even a minute on this site telling us about them?

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Guest Bart of Darkness
And if you are so confidant of rising prices in your chosen area, why do you spend even a minute on this site telling us about them?

He's an EA with a lot of spare time on his hands.

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This post by surveyor was in another thread, but I just had to pull it out because I know Surveyor as a long timer on here, who has earned a reputation for honesty - he has also been pretty bearish in the past and still is long term.

Now, here you have it from the front line - property in the South east has picked up and appears to be going up by all accounts. There is no crash scenario or sentiment on the horizon.

And let me add, that prices are still rising in the North too - asking prices are showing considerable signs of moving up since Xmas, which is a sure sign that demand is strong.

Now, the Q4 Land Reg statistics are out this week - in the past all you bears have been saying that these are the 'bible' and that they will show prices going down ......... well I'm still waiting, because once again the 'bible' is going to show you that prices are still rising.

I just don't know how much longer you lot can keep saying 'it's happening', when it clearly isn't - you are in serious denial.

:)

Seeing almost no action on the sale of family homes where I am.

(three to four bed semi or detached)

Homes are sticking badly.

New builds are showing significant drops of over 20% since peek.

I am in Devon though and the salaries here are amongst the lowest in the country and the property prices are amongst the higest.

and where as some areas have only seen 75% inflation since the bottom, we have seen between 250% and 300%

But we are seeing good signs.

The announcement by the HSBC advice to investors not to touch housing as an investement and seeing many large BTL mortgage suppliers turning away new builds and ear to the ground suggesting that they don't like lending against property that is not already rental.

FTB's returning to the market?

In devon it is only a small fraction who could dream of doing it.

A colleague has but he:

1: lied aobut his income

2: lied about his IO mortgage as he has no investment vehicle in place to repay the capital.

3: Bought a new build now offering discounts and incentives against identical property that has put him in about £35,000 negative equity.

So two counts of fraud and a potential and likely loss of £35,000 does not make him a huge sucess

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I can see £250k - £350k lagging behind FTB'r houses and there being progressively more lag as you get to the even more expensive houses.

After all when the market booms as it has done it mainly affects people who have to put in the money at the bottom. Anyone else will at least have a chance of selling their house to someone that is buying a similar priced property (i.e. moving but not trading up) or someone that bought 5 years+ ago and has real equity.

I guess these lags could be 1-2 years at each 'rung' before the lack of buyers feeds up the system.

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This post by surveyor was in another thread, but I just had to pull it out because I know Surveyor as a long timer on here, who has earned a reputation for honesty - he has also been pretty bearish in the past and still is long term.

Now, here you have it from the front line - property in the South east has picked up and appears to be going up by all accounts. There is no crash scenario or sentiment on the horizon.

And let me add, that prices are still rising in the North too - asking prices are showing considerable signs of moving up since Xmas, which is a sure sign that demand is strong.

Now, the Q4 Land Reg statistics are out this week - in the past all you bears have been saying that these are the 'bible' and that they will show prices going down ......... well I'm still waiting, because once again the 'bible' is going to show you that prices are still rising.

I just don't know how much longer you lot can keep saying 'it's happening', when it clearly isn't - you are in serious denial. :)

You have anecdotal evidence based on one price category in one area and you accuse others of being in denial.

House prices are closely linked to affordability. Taxes are going up, prices are going up, unemployment is going up, energy costs are soaring.

Who is in denial? The bears or the bulls?

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Well, I would agree that volumes seemed to pick up towards the end of last year in South East London.

However, from what I am seeing through monitoring Rightmove, prices are being cut left right and centre to get sales.

Transactions showing a spurt is not a problem, as the prices are lower.

Transactions will fall away again in the next couple of months and then the fun will really start.

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Well those of you that know me - know full well what my views are.

I hate to admit it but the market round here does seem to have picked up. I have underlined seem because my observation is so limited and subjective I would be the first to admit it is worth very little. But, suddenly, there appears to be a rash of Sold boards (admittedly - subject to contract) but the sort of stuff that was simply not shifting - 4 bed stuff above say 375k is now beginning to move.

I am surprised at the current resilience of the market. It seems to have paused for breath on its way down and looks relatively buoyant - to me.

Has it changed my mind? Almost - sometimes. But then I start thinking about the fundamentals again - and I see rising unemployment and an on-going slowdown in consumer spending - despite a revival in mortgage borrowing. I see more jobs going abroad, increasing public spending, tax rises coming and jobs in manufacturing going. I see unbelievable balance of trade figures that no-one (in the UK government) is bothered about.

To be honest I am not sure what to make of it - yet. But, whenever I start drifting towards the 'might as well get back into the market' mentality - if prices are beginning to turn around - well I just can't do it. I am convinced a catastrophic recession is around the corner and that the resilience of the market is caused by mass stupidity fuelled by the endless spin. I really see the people who think all is well in the world, that the UK economy is sound and will continue growing, that we are in an endless heavenly state of low inflation, sustained economic growth, rising standards of living, eternally low interest rates - I see them as being the lemmings on their annual race day.

Charging along, as frisky as you like in the sunshine - borrowing more and more money to keep their standard of living up - secure in the knowledge the house is going up more every day than their debt.

But you can't see the cliff coming up when you are surrounded by everyone else doing the same thing.

The current housing market is a wonderful example of crowd behaviour.

In case certain bulls on here think that I now think I was wrong to STR - whatever the market here in my little bit of the world is doing at the moment, it won't undo the falls of the last two years very quickly. I know of many examples of properties selling a full 20% below their original asking price.

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I will repeat one thing.

A market can stay irrational longer than your cash will sustain bets against it.

The market will fall and when it does the pain will be massive but if there are still fools in the market then there is nothing to stop this market continuing for a while longer.

Also don't forget that many people including small builders are already feeling the pain. While quality will always sell, second place property is taking far longer to find buyers.

Edited by eek

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I am surprised at the current resilience of the market. It seems to have paused for breath on its way down and looks relatively buoyant - to me.

the dead cat bounces all the way down the stairs

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I too am seeing the most amount of surface activity I have down in my neck of the Woods for the last 2 years (N London).

Seems to be far more property on sale/selling than there has been for some time.

The key question that I will have to wait months for an answer is...

...is all this property selling for less than it was a year or two ago?

Even if it is only 2%ish less.

Only then will I be able to judge if the market is retracting.

Surely, high volumes of activity is good IF the prices are down...could be the start of a downward slope.

At the moment I'm quite worried that the crash isnt happening and sick as it is seem to think my best chances of a correction is via massive inflation in the cost of living (gas prices) so that I can win in a war of attrition.

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Guest

We have some different fixed-rate-fixed-term mortgage products this time around that we didn't have last time. This might account for some of the reason why 'is it or isn't it' confusion about the crash is abound.

Base rates from 3.5% -> 4.5% is +28%

Mortgage rates from 5% -> 6.5% has got to be significant: It's +30%.

http://www.moneyworld.co.uk/dictionary/Int...ory-003455.html

My understanding (from the stuff posted on here recently) is that lenders are treating repossessions less aggressively than last time around, with banks waiting a year rather than 3 months, and doing some refinance fiddling. If you can't pay, you can't pay. I don't see how they can hold back that tide forever.

EDIT - Judging by the mortgage rate history we should be back to April 2001 prices + wage inflationary adjustment!!!!

Edited by megaflop

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We have some different fixed-rate-fixed-term mortgage products this time around that we didn't have last time. This might account for some of the reason why 'is it or isn't it' confusion about the crash is abound.

Base rates from 3.5% -> 4.5% is +28%

Mortgage rates from 5% -> 6.5% has got to be significant: It's +30%.

http://www.moneyworld.co.uk/dictionary/Int...ory-003455.html

My understanding (from the stuff posted on here recently) is that lenders are treating repossessions less aggressively than last time around, with banks waiting a year rather than 3 months, and doing some refinance fiddling. If you can't pay, you can't pay. I don't see how they can hold back that tide forever.

Maybe banks have learned from last time that if they act too rapidly they will actually cause the crash to happen

If they repossess or tighten lending too quickly, they end up cutting off their own nose to spite their face etc. , by forcing current prices to become unaffordable, and precipitating the very thing that will increase bad debts and reduce their own profits.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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