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94% of property transactions to still go ahead.


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Bit of a mumble jumble of positives and negatives depending on your view, but it would appear that people stuck in limbo currently are not looking to halt their transactions. Yup, I know, estate agents blah blah, right move bias blah blah, vested interests etc, but the headline does at least seem to be based on some research / facts and figures. 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8277587/I-wait-Majority-buyers-vow-crack-moves.html

Fits with what I am seeing on my n=1 example in S.E. London. I'm one of those 373,000 property transactions currently stuck in limbo, and our chain of three so far is intact and ready to go once the restrictions are lifted. Of the 8 pages of saved properties on my right move account, only 1 has had its status changed from sold STC back to being available to view, so seems that plenty more are also sticking to their guns. At the bottom there is a prediction that house prices will drop 5% in the coming months, and this would tally with what I am expecting too for my area at least. I think the next year or two will be pretty neutral for growth, but my aim is to buy a place to live not an investment anyway, so meh...

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The only chain I know of that completed recently was because it was changed from a chain to a circle.  The person at the top (with the most to lose) became the buyer of last resort for the house at the bottom.  It had fallen through three times previously and they were starting to panic that their big lottery win exit was in peril.  So they did what they had to do......

Edited by stop_the_craziness
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Mentioned a couple of times already but a colleague of mine is completing a sale in Scotland right now. He reckons he's less likely to be able to buy after a collapse beacsue the tightened credit conditions will preclude him. So he believes it's buy now and take a loss, or not be able to buy again. 

He is buying in the West of Scotland so not facing a massive loss. Property is an ex council semi and was £82k in 2004 and is £115 ish now. He's in a not very well paid local council admin job and unlikely to see any meaningful. Increase in his wage.

I do believe this is the last chance gen-x has to get on the ladder. If the conservatives plan to 'successfully unpause the economy' works and everything continues as normal then that's it for us. 

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There are a lot of people who don’t want to wait to buy in a dip, they have seen things always rebound.  Personally I’d be happy to wait to buy.  Why throw good money away.  

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23 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Bit of a mumble jumble of positives and negatives depending on your view, but it would appear that people stuck in limbo currently are not looking to halt their transactions. Yup, I know, estate agents blah blah, right move bias blah blah, vested interests etc, but the headline does at least seem to be based on some research / facts and figures. 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8277587/I-wait-Majority-buyers-vow-crack-moves.html

Fits with what I am seeing on my n=1 example in S.E. London. I'm one of those 373,000 property transactions currently stuck in limbo, and our chain of three so far is intact and ready to go once the restrictions are lifted. Of the 8 pages of saved properties on my right move account, only 1 has had its status changed from sold STC back to being available to view, so seems that plenty more are also sticking to their guns. At the bottom there is a prediction that house prices will drop 5% in the coming months, and this would tally with what I am expecting too for my area at least. I think the next year or two will be pretty neutral for growth, but my aim is to buy a place to live not an investment anyway, so meh...

- 20% straight down - 30% + for less desirable properties.

If your confident you can get finance under tighter conditions then pull out - grab the popcorn as we used to say, alternatively plow ahead with all the sheeple on Mumsnet and don't complain when people who waited leap frog you to the next place in a few years time

 

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Hmmmmm this is a hard one, do I believe the Lloyds bank profit report that says they expect house prices to crash over 10% YoY for the next 3 years or do I trust estate agent ‘Lucy’ that the market is ‘coiled like a spring like it was during the Brexit years.’ ?

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43 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Bit of a mumble jumble of positives and negatives depending on your view, but it would appear that people stuck in limbo currently are not looking to halt their transactions. Yup, I know, estate agents blah blah, right move bias blah blah, vested interests etc, but the headline does at least seem to be based on some research / facts and figures. 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8277587/I-wait-Majority-buyers-vow-crack-moves.html

Fits with what I am seeing on my n=1 example in S.E. London. I'm one of those 373,000 property transactions currently stuck in limbo, and our chain of three so far is intact and ready to go once the restrictions are lifted. Of the 8 pages of saved properties on my right move account, only 1 has had its status changed from sold STC back to being available to view, so seems that plenty more are also sticking to their guns. At the bottom there is a prediction that house prices will drop 5% in the coming months, and this would tally with what I am expecting too for my area at least. I think the next year or two will be pretty neutral for growth, but my aim is to buy a place to live not an investment anyway, so meh...

Then why are you not asking for a 5-10% reduction to at least hedge against what most are accepting will happen.

TBF all it will take in those chains is the bottom buyer to start pushing for a discount and we’re off and running.

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17 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

- 20% straight down - 30% + for less desirable properties.

If your confident you can get finance under tighter conditions then pull out - grab the popcorn as we used to say, alternatively plow ahead with all the sheeple on Mumsnet and don't complain when people who waited leap frog you to the next place in a few years time

House prices in my area (I live near Edinburgh) have risen 17% in the last 3 years. A 20% or 30% drop would be worthless. We've all been on here more than 3 years, house prices even then we're a joke. 

Id like to up-size, nothing short of a 50-70% drop is going to get me there. I simply can't stomach the idea that my 3 bed house is currently 'worth' £125k but the barely any bigger 4 bed new build round the corner costs £350kish. 

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16 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

- 20% straight down - 30% + for less desirable properties.

If your confident you can get finance under tighter conditions then pull out - grab the popcorn as we used to say, alternatively plow ahead with all the sheeple on Mumsnet and don't complain when people who waited leap frog you to the next place in a few years time

 

But here's the issue with your argument. You have no more certainty of what is going to happen to prices than Sarah on Mumsnet does. Why stop at -30%? Why not -50% or -60% even. Heck, it'll all be free next year so only a fool would buy now. Why would anyone leapfrog me in a few years time? Into what? I don't really care what prices do Baring any ridiculous falls which I personally don't see happening, and we are buying a 4 bed extended house in London which has all the room for us and our planned young family should biology allow us to procreate. Does it occur to you ever that these 'sheeple' aren't all idiots or buy to let tycoons looking to get rich quick. I've been on this site since the early 2000's, and you know what, Sarah from mums net who brought back then hasn't really done too badly has she!? 

I share similar frustrations to many on here. I've sat and waited (and saved) through half my 20's, all through my 30's and now into my 40's, and guess what, despite daily prophecies that the crash is coming, except for a blip in 2008 precisely naff all has happened to house prices other than a steady march upward. I don't care about out-doing the Joneses next door, or making a killing off property. I won't be complaining at all if in a couple of years time I could have brought for 10% less, because in a couple of years time with a bit of overpayment, I will have paid in 10% to the equity, so I am back where I started, but with an asset to bring up a family. Most people buying a house really don't care about price rises. It's been a nice bonus for lots over the past 20 years, but we're not all the evil pantomime villains you seem to paint in your mind crying black tears of joy from our cold hearts about how clever we are now our house is worth 100k more than last year. 

It's one of those things that only time will tell - assuming our purchase goes through, it'll be interesting to revisit posts like this in a decades time and see if it was the right or wrong decision. I strongly suspect I won't begrudge being halfway through a mortgage on a London house whatever happens to prices in the short to medium term...

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11 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Then why are you not asking for a 5-10% reduction to at least hedge against what most are accepting will happen.

TBF all it will take in those chains is the bottom buyer to start pushing for a discount and we’re off and running.

Because it makes very little difference to my position. We would need to go through affordability tests again, and who knows what the bank might return with as a lending figure. We are not borrowing to the max, but we are on 90% LTV, and the market there has pretty much dried up. We also risk alienating our seller who I strongly suspect will tell us where to shove our 5-10% discount. The house we are hopefully buying sold to us within a week of coming onto the market, and despite what many on here think, demand in that area of London in my view remains very strong. I don't think even in the current circumstances it would sit on the market longer than a few weeks if put back on, and for us it is at least our for the next 10 - 15 years home if not forever. What real difference is 5 - 10% going to make over 25 years anyway on the mortgage? 20 quid a month or so cheaper? There are far more downsides to messing around with agreed price 4 months into a purchase than there are up. Even given the change in economic circumstances, I still feel we are paying fair price for what we are buying. We are at the bottom of the chain, so I'm reasonably hopeful that given we are holding firm, everyone else will be able to play ball. 

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17 minutes ago, regprentice said:

House prices in my area (I live near Edinburgh) have risen 17% in the last 3 years. A 20% or 30% drop would be worthless. We've all been on here more than 3 years, house prices even then we're a joke. 

Id like to up-size, nothing short of a 50-70% drop is going to get me there. I simply can't stomach the idea that my 3 bed house is currently 'worth' £125k but the barely any bigger 4 bed new build round the corner costs £350kish. 

I don't make the rules ...That jump is always a pain once your there plenty of choice because ironically  not that many  buyers but then prices different in the south

Edited by GregBowman
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1 minute ago, Twenty Something said:

Because it makes very little difference to my position. We would need to go through affordability tests again, and who knows what the bank might return with as a lending figure. We are not borrowing to the max, but we are on 90% LTV, and the market there has pretty much dried up. We also risk alienating our seller who I strongly suspect will tell us where to shove our 5-10% discount. The house we are hopefully buying sold to us within a week of coming onto the market, and despite what many on here think, demand in that area of London in my view remains very strong. I don't think even in the current circumstances it would sit on the market longer than a few weeks if put back on, and for us it is at least our for the next 10 - 15 years home if not forever. What real difference is 5 - 10% going to make over 25 years anyway on the mortgage? 20 quid a month or so cheaper? There are far more downsides to messing around with agreed price 4 months into a purchase than there are up. Even given the change in economic circumstances, I still feel we are paying fair price for what we are buying. We are at the bottom of the chain, so I'm reasonably hopeful that given we are holding firm, everyone else will be able to play ball. 

That makes sense but never ever think like this in a transaction write on your mirror I am the client...

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36 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

- 20% straight down - 30% + for less desirable properties.

If your confident you can get finance under tighter conditions then pull out - grab the popcorn as we used to say, alternatively plow ahead with all the sheeple on Mumsnet and don't complain when people who waited leap frog you to the next place in a few years time

 

Spent 10 mins writing a response, and ? the mods have hidden my reply. Guess we can't have anyone going against the prices must fall mantra. Jeez this site is funny. 

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If I was that same 24 year old again waiting to move into my first home with my then gorgeous first love of my life the last thing on my mind then as a horny young totally in love young man would be "logical thinking" and "financial safety", I only saw a home that I could not wait to get back to at any cost.

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7 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Spent 10 mins writing a response, and ? the mods have hidden my reply. Guess we can't have anyone going against the prices must fall mantra. Jeez this site is funny. 

Not sure what you would have said in that removed post, but I suppose there is always that suspicion that some naughty people are coming to this website trying to continue with the property ramping they have done over the last 20 years, I am not saying that's you though.

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21 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Spent 10 mins writing a response, and ? the mods have hidden my reply. Guess we can't have anyone going against the prices must fall mantra. Jeez this site is funny. 

I doubt the mods would be interested in your post. I know as someone that used to comment on a lot of rubbish from property bulls and I even suffered some nasty personal attacks from them on the Northern Ireland section of the forum. Their silence is deafening during this crisis. 

So I sincerely doubt the mods are hiding posts. More likely something went wrong with the internet or the website. This website has been a full capacity for me a few times recently.

Edited by Belfast Boy
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21 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Spent 10 mins writing a response, and ? the mods have hidden my reply. Guess we can't have anyone going against the prices must fall mantra. Jeez this site is funny. 

It was certainly hidden but not by any moderator.

Could be an automatic trigger word or phrase? Now visible.

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46 minutes ago, regprentice said:

House prices in my area (I live near Edinburgh) have risen 17% in the last 3 years. A 20% or 30% drop would be worthless. We've all been on here more than 3 years, house prices even then we're a joke. 

Id like to up-size, nothing short of a 50-70% drop is going to get me there. I simply can't stomach the idea that my 3 bed house is currently 'worth' £125k but the barely any bigger 4 bed new build round the corner costs £350kish. 

Value is linked with amount of rental income that could be collected by the rent collectors (who often rarely visit).....who would pay high rents to live near you, long or short-term....what are the commercial rents, do businesses think they will prosper....do people with money want to visit and spend in a place near you? ;)

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46 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

But here's the issue with your argument. You have no more certainty of what is going to happen to prices than Sarah on Mumsnet does. Why stop at -30%? Why not -50% or -60% even.

Because I am a little older... 1. Have been through the 88 -96 crashes and 2007 -2010 for one. 2. Numerous recessions amongst that. 3. Money is and will stay cheap 4. I have created 2 fair sized business in the last 30 years and still work with boards where we look at numbers all day long - so a bit different to Mumsnet.... 

So got that out of the way. In the case of property once you get to 20% to many people with access to money that looks interesting (and like it or not there are millions of us) when you combine that with the inevitable stamp duty holiday. Having downsized I might look to upsize again because a falling market is great for upsizing - So you start to create a floor where a little activity and people not selling because the market is too low cements that in place.

I have no certainity but have the past, the people I talk to and my gut feel which has served me well,  all the above and have come out the other side in truth experience does teach you a bit not the b***** on Mumsnet

If you look at my posts going back you will see I am not a doom and gloomer but this is a proper event and prices will go down measurably. 

Think you protest too much and from a businessman's  point of view anyone who doesn't want to insult a seller of something is a sellers wet dream ?

Now must dash going to take some pics of empty London riding up on my motorbike naughty ?

 

Edited by GregBowman
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49 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Jeez this site is funny. 

That's a bit of a funny quote/statement of yours also

What other problems have you had at such an early stage in your HPC membership?

And if as I suspect it could be just a first small technical error on HPC's part, why jump to the conclusion it's anything else?

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59 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Because it makes very little difference to my position. We would need to go through affordability tests again, and who knows what the bank might return with as a lending figure. We are not borrowing to the max, but we are on 90% LTV, and the market there has pretty much dried up. We also risk alienating our seller who I strongly suspect will tell us where to shove our 5-10% discount. The house we are hopefully buying sold to us within a week of coming onto the market, and despite what many on here think, demand in that area of London in my view remains very strong. I don't think even in the current circumstances it would sit on the market longer than a few weeks if put back on, and for us it is at least our for the next 10 - 15 years home if not forever. What real difference is 5 - 10% going to make over 25 years anyway on the mortgage? 20 quid a month or so cheaper? There are far more downsides to messing around with agreed price 4 months into a purchase than there are up. Even given the change in economic circumstances, I still feel we are paying fair price for what we are buying. We are at the bottom of the chain, so I'm reasonably hopeful that given we are holding firm, everyone else will be able to play ball. 

Then at the minute you’re part of the problem not the solution from HPC standpoint. I get everything you’re saying, I have sympathy. But I think you may be on the wrong message board.
 

You have become emotionally attached to the transaction, take a step back and think what will happen if when you come to remortgage house prices are 30% lower where you are. On 90% LTV that’s not a place you want to be.

But hey, it’s your money (well 10% of it) and if it still makes sense in the current climate knock yourself out.

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For the majority of the UK - people under 50 have no real experience of what a proper house price crash is. I was studying in England 30 years ago. That was the last proper crash. I remember my friends telling me how much their properties had fallen in price.

Roll on to 2007 and I decided to sell my house in Northern Ireland. I was shocked at the valuation and it was 'sale agreed' at 10% above asking price. Remembering what my friends in England told me in the early 90's - I typed 'house price crash' into google. What I found on this website both scared and fascinated me. The sale completed and I decided to become an STR for a few years just to see what happened. The Northern Ireland housing market crashed 56.5% in real terms in just over 5 years. In that time I met my wife and she already had a house. So my interest in the housing market became mostly academic.

The Northern Ireland housing market stalled in early 2007. House prices remained high for all of 2007 even though sales volumes collapsed. There must have been transactions in the system that still completed at high prices. Before the market ran out of road and fell off a cliff in 2008.

I am suggesting to people who read the Northern Ireland section of the forum that they rent for 1 year. There is little risk that house prices will go up in that period of time. I understand the arguments that it might become more difficult to borrow. If everyone is having the same difficulties then house prices will have to come down to what people can afford to pay.

I am once again fascinated (and a little scared for different reasons) to see what happens next.

I have a feeling that people are soon going to have a lot more to worry about than house prices. 

Edited by Belfast Boy
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I'm looking in SE London as well. 

Obviously house price declines will not hit everything evenly, so your experience may vary.

I am seeing many properties priced at 10% off their peak, and still not looking that great. I don't know why this is, perhaps because the location is a price compromise and other properties elsewhere in London have fallen as well and so look a bit more tempting. 

To me I view the opportunity cost of things as well, if I spend £400k on a property which is worth £400k in 5 years, then for me I'd rather not buy it. The amount of reasons that are threatening house price rises to me appear pretty numerous, and the ones that might make them even more expensive than now appear quite low. 

Appreciate there may be non-monetary costs for others (ie family, security of tenure). The aggravating thing I see from both sides of the coin is that people take their own personal circumstance and try to think that this represents the whole market. 

For some people in this area it could be a good time to buy, prices are below peak and the immediate market is weak. But personally I believe demand could be a bit of a mirage. You could say that on Ebay a certain widget is heavily in demand because it gets bid like anything, but the depth of that demand could be quite weak (only a few people bidding against each other).

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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