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Redundancy Watch - 25% of companies to make redundancies


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2 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Law changing on redundancy pay.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53591964

Companies have been holding off until the end of July, to make people redundant, as it meant lower averaged furlough earnings reduced their redundancy payment.

The government has waited until the last moment to stop that happening, knowing by leaving companies in that belief, it delayed the avalanche about to fall.

Winter is coming.

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12 hours ago, Killer Bunny said:

My 1.5-3m extra unemployed forecast looking more likely, by the week 

Concerned that VIs like Goldman Sachs are still predicting a short V shaped recession and unemployment back to pre covid levels by Easter. Not that I believe them, but friends and family see that on the news and in the papers and think im a nutter for predicting massive unemployment and a potential depression. 

I went for 4.5mn Incidentally. 

That's high but so many people are in 'part' jobs that 4 people will lose a 'job' where ten years ago 1 person would have lost a job doing the same volume of work.

2 examples.

My wife's friend was in a 16 hour receptionist job. 2 receptionists working back to back. Decided they only needed half that resource so instead of making one redundant they cut both to 8 hours a week

My wife trained to be a teaching assistant. A few mums at the same school did the same course at the suggestion of the headmistress. When work became available, around 32 hours a week, instead of picking one to work 32 hours or two  to work 16 hours a week the head employed all of them and they ended up with as little as 3 hours a week. 

It's just pocket money. People used to turn down work if it took them. Over the benefits threshold (16 hours a week?) I've one friend who barely scrapes 16 hours a week in 3 jobs combined. 

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My take on this is whatever the headline figures for unemployment, impact will be more marked than might be expected.

A reasonable number of those still employed will see their hours reduced, with resultant pay cuts. I know of people that have already experienced this and perversely are expected to work just as hard as before.

Given the current economic model in the UK which is driven by spending of both credit (drying/dried up) and earned money (reduced/reducing) a 'V' shaped return looks highly unlikely.

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1 hour ago, satsuma said:

I’m seeing a lot of companies trying to protect every penny as they are worried about the next year.  I’d say they will be cutting to the bone in the next two months 

Our company has brought in 4 day week with 20% pay reduction. For 10 weeks. I wonder if there will be layoffs at the end or another 10 weeks extension ?

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On 30/07/2020 at 21:41, Killer Bunny said:

All these and HP bulls still harp on about Stamp Duty. ?

Just chatted to an EA I know and he said they're too busy at the moment, the sheep are using the stamp duty holiday as expected... but even he said they should be saving their money in case when they come off furlough they don't have a job! Sheep will always be sheep.

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3 minutes ago, warpig said:

Just chatted to an EA I know and he said they're too busy at the moment, the sheep are using the stamp duty holiday as expected... but even he said they should be saving their money in case when they come off furlough they don't have a job! Sheep will always be sheep.

Or people are quickly buying a property before they get made redundant and hope the state pays the mortgage (well interest on it)

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4 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Or people are quickly buying a property before they get made redundant and hope the state pays the mortgage (well interest on it)

....interest on debt now is minuscule....cheaper than paying rent for the state......the lenders will move fast if they can see their capital depreciating, will not want to be left holding the baby (a falling asset)....act fast to get shot of it.;)

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1 minute ago, winkie said:

....interest on debt now is minuscule....cheaper than paying rent for the state......the lenders will move fast if they can see their capital depreciating, will not want to be left holding the baby (a falling asset)....act fast to get shot of it.;)

You are right I never thought of that, I was still thinking with the mentality that interest rates are 5%

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21 hours ago, Shamus said:

Our company has brought in 4 day week with 20% pay reduction. For 10 weeks. I wonder if there will be layoffs at the end or another 10 weeks extension ?

You would know better than most, how busy are they?  The likes of BA reduced pay any also announced redundancies but they are clearly very much down in terms of trade and therefore revenue.  My feeling is all companies will try to cut and save money, you will probably not see your old salary level again and they will get rid of the older staff under some nonsense reason that is really just about not having people around who will point out their rights or that management are rubbish.  

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22 hours ago, Shamus said:

Our company has brought in 4 day week with 20% pay reduction. For 10 weeks. I wonder if there will be layoffs at the end or another 10 weeks extension ?

Hearing a lot of this going on. For a lot of people it will be a simple choice, no job or the same job but on a lower wage.

Just as well people hadn't loaded themselves up with debt that they struggled to pay with every penny that used to earn .....

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7 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

Hearing a lot of this going on. For a lot of people it will be a simple choice, no job or the same job but on a lower wage.

Just as well people hadn't loaded themselves up with debt that they struggled to pay with every penny that used to earn .....

Yea and I suppose the reduction is offsetting the reduction in government furlough payments, if your not seeing the business getting going again I’d be worried 

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2 hours ago, satsuma said:

You would know better than most, how busy are they?  The likes of BA reduced pay any also announced redundancies but they are clearly very much down in terms of trade and therefore revenue.  My feeling is all companies will try to cut and save money, you will probably not see your old salary level again and they will get rid of the older staff under some nonsense reason that is really just about not having people around who will point out their rights or that management are rubbish.  

I think you'll find frontline managers are under the same threat, senior managers are the ones ruling this particular roost.

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2 hours ago, Blink said:

I think you'll find frontline managers are under the same threat, senior managers are the ones ruling this particular roost.

I’m not getting your point but in any case it’s usually the same regardless of who decided to cut, the people going are picked for fairly nasty reasons 

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On 02/08/2020 at 10:12, Switch625 said:

Hearing a lot of this going on. For a lot of people it will be a simple choice, no job or the same job but on a lower wage.

Just as well people hadn't loaded themselves up with debt that they struggled to pay with every penny that used to earn .....

In a lot of cases people will have found they are saving a packet by forgoing those cinema trips, not eating out, no coffees to go... Which is good for those making the saving, less so for those working (or owning) a hospitality business.

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55 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

In a lot of cases people will have found they are saving a packet by forgoing those cinema trips, not eating out, no coffees to go... Which is good for those making the saving, less so for those working (or owning) a hospitality business

I've heard this one too and have to agree that it may reflect the truth of the mater for some people.

London commuters must have saved good sums on travel alone (could easily be thousands) and were probably also splurging money on expensive cafes etc.

But what about the people who didn't commute into London? The average unsecured debt per household in the third quarter of 2019 was an eye-watering £14,540.

https://www.tuc.org.uk/news/unsecured-debt-hits-new-peak-ps14540-household-tuc-analysis

I can't see a few lattes not being purchased making much of a dent in that figure, but it will seriously impact the hospitality businesses those people used to frequent.

That level of debt coupled with low levels of savings for a 'rainy day' leaves the average family very poorly prepared to cope with the loss of, or even a reduction in household income.

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