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Due in an hour. This will be the first index to show include (some of) the lockdown.

Not sure what the effect will be, if any. It’s initial asking prices only, so the number of properties making up the figure might be very limited.

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It'll be something stupid like 0.2% rise. 

I've been looking at it every day. My observations are from looking at my areas, listing numbers are well down - non-existent at the start of the lockdown, but recovering a little recently. But you don't need to be a genius to know this.

Predominately the main listings are new builds. Many have reductions. Also seen some properties for sale having reductions. Some of the reductions are quite sharp but on further reading they are auction listings.

Very few genuinely new listings as far as I can see, although I guess it would not be impossible for someone to take pictures of their house themselves and use it for a listing.

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28 minutes ago, simon2 said:

It'll be something stupid like 0.2% rise. 

I've been looking at it every day. My observations are from looking at my areas, listing numbers are well down - non-existent at the start of the lockdown, but recovering a little recently. But you don't need to be a genius to know this.

Predominately the main listings are new builds. Many have reductions. Also seen some properties for sale having reductions. Some of the reductions are quite sharp but on further reading they are auction listings.

Very few genuinely new listings as far as I can see, although I guess it would not be impossible for someone to take pictures of their house themselves and use it for a listing.

Almost! It was a 0.2% decline for this month.

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8 hours ago, Si1 said:

I don't think it will tell you anything of importance. House prices will probably lag the original covid19 event.

In the next few weeks there will be a load of Grannies out there who will be making the perfect Christmas pudding and cake and then putting it in storage. Those little Xmas delights  will have those important essential ingredients now being  put together and finished but sadly we will have to wait months before scoffing them, but the work has been done.

Best right not to keep the storage cupboard shut and make the most of the time between now and Christmas in the same way as each day now passes and the housing market being shut down the ingredients to making a tanking rental and housing market is being put together, you just are unable to taste it at the moment because everything is locked away. I suspect this lockdown will come to an end within the next 2 months for estate agents with the August indicies indices showing us the early  signs of what many of us believe is going to happen.

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A 2.6% decline in the number of houses listed, and no report on prices because its "meaningless"

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-house-prices-stalled-coronavirus-a137996.html

It might be an indication that asking prices have fallen enough that they do not want to reveal the decline.

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9 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

Don't even bother trying to read anything into any data now, give it about 4 months at the least

Agreed - it is pointless - anything now is pure conjecture

9 minutes ago, gp_ said:

might be an indication that asking prices have fallen enough that they do not want to reveal the decline.

and it may be because it is meaningless as very few people will even think about selling when they cannot get out and view a property to buy even if they do get a  buyer

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Well housing market is in a complete frozen state, but household sentiment went one way this morning:

image.png.c392daa226081f78f4d631e4509f8b97.png

Who will win? The printing machine or the fear? Biggest question to ask oneself here.

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28 minutes ago, richmondtw said:

Agreed - it is pointless - anything now is pure conjecture

and it may be because it is meaningless as very few people will even think about selling when they cannot get out and view a property to buy even if they do get a  buyer

And I am sure everyone on here knows that Rightmove are just asking prices. What I am finding shocking about property investors, many homeowners and wannabe sellers is that so many of them think this pull back in the economy and housing market is just going to be quick V shaped short lived recession, actually the vast majority will have you believe that the housing market won't even be V shaped, just flat for a while.

The more I think about this the more I am hoping that those greedy sods trying to get peak prices at every monthly downturn get stung the most, I have heard of some homeowners since the late 90's with three or even four fold gains on their properties and they are  now in a panic over 15% falls, so greedy that they cannot see the long lasting luck they have had and now the party is over, some people just deserve to lose it all.

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When people realise that 'Return to Normal' phase isn't happening, the panic will be glorious.

Remember, EA's have to sell a house at full price or above every time.  We just need one panicking seller to sell quick to set the market and start the explosion.  Great time to be at the margins.

 

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12 hours ago, neon tetra said:

Due in an hour. This will be the first index to show include (some of) the lockdown.

Not sure what the effect will be, if any. It’s initial asking prices only, so the number of properties making up the figure might be very limited.

The second index to show....

 

@UKPropertyLion reporting a slight rise in CURRRENT ASKING PRICES QoQ, down 6% from the 2018 peak.

Rightmove's INITIAL ASKING PRICE index is seriously flawed and should be ignored.

 

https://twitter.com/UkPropertyLion/status/1248256982353674240?s=20

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1 hour ago, msi said:

When people realise that 'Return to Normal' phase isn't happening, the panic will be glorious.

Remember, EA's have to sell a house at full price or above every time.  We just need one panicking seller to sell quick to set the market and start the explosion.  Great time to be at the margins.

 

Personally I think it'll take more than that.

Places that come up at what I would consider a panic price end up shifting very quickly indeed. 

Looking at land reg prices enough time has passed to see the motivated sale dribble through, by and large sellers are ignoring that and pricing at the peak. 

I think it might take some kind of other factors such as lots of sellers going for the exit at the same time. When a street has 5 or 6 comparable houses on it up for sale and the majority of people feeling that prices will be going nowhere in future there may be competition to reduce and slowly new lower levels will set.

The argument against this is that with mortgage levels at lows there is no need for sellers to do anything and they can ride it out. But countering this I am not so sure it'll be as simple as that. I think there is a wide segment of homeowners for whom their house makes up the majority of their net worth. And delving further into that the majority of that net worth may be 'free HPI money'. It may make some sense for some individuals who can, to de-risk their personal balance sheets for a while.

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There presumably are a similar number of houses ready to come to the market for the ' three Ds' as ever during the current hiatus. Indeed all three of these may, often sadly, be higher.

There are also a number of people who would have, but are unable to buy at the moment, and will look to buy after the shutdown, though, some may no longer be able to due to changes in their financial situation if/when the economy reduces their income or savings. Or the willingness of banks to lend to people in general  reduces.

The changes in housing market this year should be driven by a relative mismatch in supply (the top section) v demand (the second section), currently I see things which will cause an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. But I await with abject terror the government's next intervention.

Edited by Tulip_mania
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2 hours ago, Freki said:

Well housing market is in a complete frozen state, but household sentiment went one way this morning:

image.png.c392daa226081f78f4d631e4509f8b97.png

Who will win? The printing machine or the fear? Biggest question to ask oneself here.

The printing machine (not QE, which is a different thing) is awefull to real estate prices. In real terms almost every single hyperinflation has killed real estate prices. Just need to check the Weimar Republic or Venezuela. The stock market and gold do good, but real estate doesn’t.

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In my search area there has been 2 new listings in the past 4 weeks. Normally, over teh winter, there about 15 a week. I’ve seen a lot being taken off, obviously people who were either looking to downsize, or not need to move. The market will stagnate until the forced sellers really start to pile up...I am thinking going to auctions might be the best way ahead.

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25 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

In my search area there has been 2 new listings in the past 4 weeks. Normally, over teh winter, there about 15 a week. I’ve seen a lot being taken off, obviously people who were either looking to downsize, or not need to move. The market will stagnate until the forced sellers really start to pile up...I am thinking going to auctions might be the best way ahead.

UKPropertyLion reported number of listings was approx 1% down, so the market is going nowhere, just stopped dead.  Some of the area prices were almost identical.

Some areas list midlands were starting to fall, London made this figures look rosy this quarter

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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3 hours ago, richmondtw said:

and it may be because it is meaningless as very few people will even think about selling when they cannot get out and view a property to buy even if they do get a  buyer

Of course the numbers will be distorted and not comparable, but I think Rightmove is more likely to publish positive and distorted numbers than negative and distorted numbers.

30 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

In real terms almost every single hyperinflation has killed real estate prices.

I do not think we are heading toward hyperinflation. We may have high inflation, and what will then matter is whether interest rates are raised to reduce it.

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14 minutes ago, gp_ said:

Of course the numbers will be distorted and not comparable, but I think Rightmove is more likely to publish positive and distorted numbers than negative and distorted numbers.

I do not think we are heading toward hyperinflation. We may have high inflation, and what will then matter is whether interest rates are raised to reduce it.

If interest rates are not raised... prepare for Bond market freeze. If they are raised, prepare for Bond market meltdown.

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1 hour ago, gp_ said:

Of course the numbers will be distorted and not comparable, but I think Rightmove is more likely to publish positive and distorted numbers than negative and distorted numbers.

I do not think we are heading toward hyperinflation. We may have high inflation, and what will then matter is whether interest rates are raised to reduce it.

Forget RM initial asking price figures, you need to check out @PropertyLionUK on twitter for the current asking price index.

it will show you exactly where asking price are at.

They expect asking prices for this quarter to hardly change, it's the one after that that weill be very interesting

The PL index is based on actual rightmove data

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3 hours ago, msi said:

When people realise that 'Return to Normal' phase isn't happening, the panic will be glorious.

Remember, EA's have to sell a house at full price or above every time.  We just need one panicking seller to sell quick to set the market and start the explosion.  Great time to be at the margins.

 

Actually we are returning to normal (house prices based on salaries, rather than the rent a BTL cockroach can charge). However most people think "normal" is HPI forever!

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On 20/04/2020 at 12:52, Burbujista said:

The printing machine (not QE, which is a different thing) is awefull to real estate prices. In real terms almost every single hyperinflation has killed real estate prices. Just need to check the Weimar Republic or Venezuela. The stock market and gold do good, but real estate doesn’t.

Ok. What about the debt denominated in that hyper inflated currency?

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54 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Ok. What about the debt denominated in that hyper inflated currency?

Well, it depends on what happens to real interest rates and unemployment.

If interest rates follow inflation and you have to renew your fixed rate or are in a tracker... you are not in good shape because you will have to refinance at a much higher rate. If you are not creditworthy, it implies that you can’t refinance an go directly to the SVR, which exists precisely to cover the bank in case this scenario occurs.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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