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House prices forecast to drop 13% this year as property sales dive and incomes are hit


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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-8212455/Housing-market-expected-fall-sixth-thousands-Britons-lose-jobs.html

"The housing market is expected to fall by up to a sixth as thousands of Britons lose their jobs. 

 

Yorkshire and East Anglia are expected to be the hardest hit with house prices dropping 16.5 per cent this year. 

Next come the North-West and West Midlands with 16 per cent falls. The collapse in prices would take up to £38,000 off the price of an average UK home. "

38k off and still unaffordable??

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1 minute ago, interestrateripoff said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-8212455/Housing-market-expected-fall-sixth-thousands-Britons-lose-jobs.html

"The housing market is expected to fall by up to a sixth as thousands of Britons lose their jobs. 

 

Yorkshire and East Anglia are expected to be the hardest hit with house prices dropping 16.5 per cent this year. 

Next come the North-West and West Midlands with 16 per cent falls. The collapse in prices would take up to £38,000 off the price of an average UK home. "

38k off and still unaffordable??

I am sick of all these newspapers protecting house prices. They will never say that the collapse is likely to be much bigger.

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The comments are great, lots of people STILL believe that houses only ever go up, citing low interest rates. I guess they missed the Sky news report that banks have actually been increasing rates on mortgages since the BoE emergency cut.

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen such pro HPC comments on a Daily Mail comments section!  Going by the best rated comments alone, I get the feeling they are from a younger demographic than normal.  Perhaps the ‘kids’ are finally getting it?

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29 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Last week I thought experts said it was supposed to be just 3%? 
 

If Daily Mail are reporting 13%, you can probably triple that.

It will be 25-30% not nearer 50% at that level plenty of low geared and cash buyers around 

lower level stuff rubbish apartments etc probably more 

imho 

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Wouldn't be so sure that prices will drop - as previously discussed on this forum, mortgage lending is THE major credit pump into the consumer economy.

Authorities will do anything to keep this supply of new money/ credit going so expect BS like tax relief of mortgage debt (not just interest), government underwriting bank mortgage loans, practically interest-free loans to the borrower, generous 'help to buy' subsidies, extra grants for 'key workers' blah blah ....

 

 

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2 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

It will be 25-30% not nearer 50% at that level plenty of low geared and cash buyers around 

lower level stuff rubbish apartments etc probably more 

imho 

cash maybe useful again 

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2 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I think it will my friend or things that can be converted to cash interested in a BMW 1250 RS or Tag watch ?

i already have a vintage solid gold omega ? 

lovely little flat over looking the Thames for 250k would be lovely, got any of them ?

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The Daily Fail is suffering a drop in Sales as it's natural base stays indoors and dies off.  Similar figures around the Sun too.  They are chasing headlines nothing more.

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55 minutes ago, msi said:

The Daily Fail is suffering a drop in Sales as it's natural base stays indoors and dies off.  Similar figures around the Sun too.  They are chasing headlines nothing more.

Not to mention property articles and advertorials pay.... bad news is more clicky but does not pay so well..... usually.

Now the former is not paying so go with the latter!

 

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2 hours ago, bomberbrown said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such pro HPC comments on a Daily Mail comments section!  Going by the best rated comments alone, I get the feeling they are from a younger demographic than normal.  Perhaps the ‘kids’ are finally getting it?

Strangely I had a DM comment moderated (removed) this week which has never happened before.

Someone clearly didn’t like the suggestion that Coronavirus would be good news for FTBs!

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I am a FTB....was and still am going through the house buying process of a property I reserved. It is one of just 4 new build 2 bedroom homes in an affluent town in the south east. I offered less than the asking price, 8% less, and it was accepted as the other 3 had been sold for the asking price and the seller was happy to get rid of the last one to me for a cheaper price. Compared to other new builds within the town and smaller surrounding towns, I got a good price.

Not sure If I have got a good price now seeing as the world is burning, but I'll probably complete on the sale as my job is intact and as I say I got a discount already. I also got in at an interest rate of 1.99% and now interest rates have gone up.

What is likely to happen to interest rates as we head deeper into the shutdown and emerge from it. Could we see closer to 0%, negative rates, or rates increasing quite a bit compared to what we have had in recent years?

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1 hour ago, msi said:

The Daily Fail is suffering a drop in Sales as it's natural base stays indoors and dies off.  Similar figures around the Sun too.  They are chasing headlines nothing more.

Really? 

I expect sales and deliveries are up as they are all housebound for 3 months! Libraries are shut - so they want a daily paper delivery.

Older people also have kids and grandkids - and only a tiny minority have buy to lets.

 

 

Edited by MARTINX9
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2 hours ago, Now or never said:

So, in addition to a totally screwed economy, increasing unemployment and lower LTV mortgages since covid, we now have the final nail in the coffin: sentiment.

Who is going to complete now?

 

Wondering after weeks or months of lockdown there could actually be a lot of people seeking to move causing a rise in sales and rental volumes?

Being stuck in all day everyday reminds some of how much they dislike their horrible noisy neighbours (and their stomping kids on wooden floors in flats/playing loud music etc), wishing they had (more) outside space, wishing they had more room generally and wishing they could like somewhere more quiet or rural where working from home is more pleasant.

Not all neighbours are as lovely as the clips - mostly of people in rural villages and leafy suburbs living in leafy detacheds with big driveways and gardens - we see endlessly on the TV news 'enjoying' lockdown suggest!

 

Edited by MARTINX9
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2 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Wondering after weeks or months of lockdown there could actually be a lot of people seeking to move causing a rise in sales and rental volumes?

Being stuck in all day everyday reminds some of how much they dislike their horrible noisy neighbours (and their stomping kids on wooden floors in flats/playing loud music etc), wishing they had (more) outside space, wishing they had more room generally and wishing they could like somewhere more quiet or rural where working from home is more pleasant.

Not all neighbours are as lovely as the clips - mostly of people in rural villages and leafy suburbs living in leafy detacheds with big driveways and gardens - we see endlessly on the TV news 'enjoying' lockdown suggest!

 

I have been umming and arring about completing my house move, but what do I want, to be in a house share with tenants I don't really socialise with and a landlord that is greedy / likes sending people round to do DIY, and noisy neighbours that love to do DIY or let their kids run around their garden screaming for hours, or more to what I think will be a quieter neighbourhood on my own, with my own garden. Already got a good price.... job intact.... I think I am going to complete this month.

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3 minutes ago, surfer9 said:

I have been umming and arring about completing my house move, but what do I want, to be in a house share with tenants I don't really socialise with and a landlord that is greedy / likes sending people round to do DIY, and noisy neighbours that love to do DIY or let their kids run around their garden screaming for hours, or more to what I think will be a quieter neighbourhood on my own, with my own garden. Already got a good price.... job intact.... I think I am going to complete this month.

If it works for you why not?

No matter how nice a house or flat is if your neighbours are horrible, ignorant, noisy and selfish meaning you never want to be at home - the nice home is of no benefit at all.

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Dont forget that the government now have a direct interest on house prices thanks to the help to buy scheme. 

They will be on the hook for losses that they might have the opportunity, if not the guaranteed ability, to prevent.

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8 minutes ago, surfer9 said:

I have been umming and arring about completing my house move, but what do I want, to be in a house share with tenants I don't really socialise with and a landlord that is greedy / likes sending people round to do DIY, and noisy neighbours that love to do DIY or let their kids run around their garden screaming for hours, or more to what I think will be a quieter neighbourhood on my own, with my own garden. Already got a good price.... job intact.... I think I am going to complete this month.

If I were you I would make the decision at the very last minute. Let the solicitor drag their feet, but don't exchange. By that time you would have better info on the current state of affairs. You could always delay it saying you can't get a removal company etc. Then you always have the option to gazunder!  

 

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4 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

If it works for you why not?

No matter how nice a house or flat is if your neighbours are horrible, ignorant, noisy and selfish meaning you never want to be at home - the nice home is of no benefit at all.

Yeah, it's funny cos I have been in a house share with 5 other tenants for 6 years and we practically make no noise. We once, and once only had music playing during 1 summer's day out in the garden and a neighbour came round to tell us to turn it down. It's nuts as all surrounding neighbours are middle aged couples who either do DIY, extension builds, have screaming kids or have barking dogs... the noise is relentless.

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3 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Dont forget that the government now have a direct interest on house prices thanks to the help to buy scheme. 

They will be on the hook for losses that they might have the opportunity, if not the guaranteed ability, to prevent.

This is true, I've needed to take out some HTB loan to buy my new build. 

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It was not great before the virus a very patchy market with the odd house finding a London mug to reach new highs and most not selling or finding it hard due to silly asking prices.

I would not have been amazed to get 10/13% some of the silly asking prices back in December/January.

If the housing market is not bailed out or frozen with cheap loans/repossession stops then 20/30% has to be a start.

As for cash rich people on the sidelines I was once of those I guess until I have had to inject 50-100k (depending on how long CRJRS scheme goes on for before grant) into my business.  So yesterday I could buy a 450-500k house and then sell my home.  Today thats 350 and my home to sell may not be worth what it was / hard to sell.

So you can take xx% off a lot of folk with money assuming they have businesses and not many of those are going to be great.  Then a lot more use their assets to leverage either to buy or to reassure them they have the balance sheet to take the risk.  These days are going to leave scars I will never leave myself with less than 3/4 months cash ever and I will never want a flat.

Basic housing/shelter is going to be a lot better investment (need) than luxury housing (want) going forward and any investment property is going to have to offer a return that plans in another wave of lockdowns until there is a vaccine.

rent x12 x 20 = good value and at the moment turnkey estate houses that rent for 1650 pcm sold (and are now falling through) at 500/525.  These are the most dynamic properties around my way as they are not nice enough for London buyers and too expensive for BTL and there are a lot of them the same in dussingdale Thorpe end if they go down to 380/400 thats a 24% drop which seems possible.

Edited by Fromage Frais
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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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