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https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/stress-stress-testing

 

Fortunately we know the banks are safe. The stringent test is as below.

4.5% drop in uk GDP.

2.5% drop in global GDP

9% rise in UK unemployment.

33% drop in residential property prices.

42% drop in commercial property prices.

All peak to trough.

 

I think these figures will very soon seem a distant hope.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, lie to bet said:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/stress-stress-testing

 

Fortunately we know the banks are safe. The stringent test is as below.

4.5% drop in uk GDP.

2.5% drop in global GDP

9% rise in UK unemployment.

33% drop in residential property prices.

42% drop in commercial property prices.

All peak to trough.

 

I think these figures will very soon seem a distant hope.

 

33% annual drop for 4 years running. That's my hope ?

Edited by Huggy
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10 hours ago, lie to bet said:

Fortunately we know the banks are safe. The stringent test is as below.

4.5% drop in uk GDP.

2.5% drop in global GDP

9% rise in UK unemployment.

33% drop in residential property prices.

42% drop in commercial property prices.

All peak to trough.

I think these figures will very soon seem a distant hope.

Agreed about the GDP ones - 2020 will certainly be poor.  Basically the stress test seems to mirror the 2008 financial crash - Coronavirus will end up being worse for the general economy.  Property prices: I'd be surprised if (as your 'distant hope' comment implies) property prices fall by way more than 33%...we shall see.

However, it's also worth noting that in the stress scenario the major banks are still projected to be solvent by miles, so clearly they can survive something much worse:  for example, HSBC falls from having about 14% CET1 capital to 8%, suggesting there is definitely some considerable safety margin there.

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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