Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

RICS 3-Months National Price Expectations sink to 2008 lows (March -82%)


Recommended Posts

If this is true:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-brings-uk-housing-market-230726162.html

“But for three months ahead, the index - which measures the difference between the percentages of surveyors expecting a price rise and a price fall - sank to minus 82. Looking 12 months ahead, the index was still at minus 38.”

This makes the market go to the levels of sentiment seen in the depth of the 2008 crisis based on 3-months national price expectations, and the -38 for 12-months expectations the worst reading ever recorded since around 2011.

(last month’s plot)

43786AD2-962F-4BDB-8A3C-E3261D971EF3.jpeg.0e027fc3801c261d10eb2169ed2dc420.jpeg

However... for whatever reason in many places they keep quoting online a number for March that is positive +11. Which appears in the previous article, just one paragraph before the one posted above.

”RICS's headline house price balance remained in positive territory for March, before the lockdown took full effect, at +11, down from +29 in February and a forecast in a Reuters poll of economists of +14.”

AND THEN MY KEY COMMENT IS.... If the headline number balance is before the lockdown... all the same report MUST ALSO before lockdown... In other words, worse better days are just around the corner for us!

Edited by Burbujista
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

I read this as: “Please, bail us out! Sacrifice your stamp duty income to hold headline house price numbers up! We are truly desperate!”

 

Clear answer from my side:

- The government doesn’t have enough income to sacrifice some of it. Huge costs of other help schemes make it unlikely that the government will take a measure like that, unless they want to risk it and go for more rating agencies downgrades.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

I read this as: “Please, bail us out! Sacrifice your stamp duty income to hold headline house price numbers up! We are truly desperate!”

 

Clear answer from my side:

- The government doesn’t have enough income to sacrifice some of it. Huge costs of other help schemes make it unlikely that the government will take a measure like that, unless they want to risk it and go for more rating agencies downgrades.

 

Not only that a stamp cut cannot repair collapsed demand. This relies on sentiment and mortgage availability. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Report is out!

https://www.rics.org/uk/news-insight/research/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/

 

Some very funny real estate agent comments inside:

Des Hoy, MRICS, Chelmsford, Esurv, des.hoy@esurv.co.uk
- Possible uncertainty in the market due to Covid-19.

ONLY POSIBLE? I HOPE THIS ANSWER WAS SENT EARLY MARCH...

 

Christopher Bailey, MRICS, Exeter, Knight Frank, christopher. bailey@knightfrank.com - Once we are through this, all fit and healthy the far side, the West Country should bounce back stronger than ever as the region continues to gain in popularity for a variety of reasons
 

“I TELL MY CLIENTS THIS, SO... I WILL SAY THE SAME IN THE REPORT. ONE OF THE REASONS IS THAT I CANNOT GO BROKE”

 

Dyer, FRICS, Abergavenny, Julian Dyer And co, Julian. dyer1@btinternet.com - Has been going well.
 

“UNTIL...”

 

But mostly honest:

Mark Everett, FRICS, Epsom, Michael Everett & Company, markeverett@michael-everett. co.uk - The year was going very well up to March 23rd. A few exchanged deals will no doubt complete, but thereafter things look very gloomy indeed.

 

 

Edited by Burbujista
Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Fall in rents too eh?

We will all be homeowners in two years time. Only current highly leveraged BTL should worry about rents, because they will be renting from someone else after the collapse.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

"The market freeze has left many agents in despair."

Hurray!

"Many responded to the Rics monthly survey with unusually blunt one-word responses, such as “catastrophic”."

Hurrah, music to our ears!

"In Leicester, Andrew York, of Moore & York, said: “The market is entering a phase of complete disruption and possible meltdown”."

Zippedy-doo-dah, let's have a virtual street-party!

"Earlier this week, in one of the first major assessments of the market by a major forecaster, Knight Frank said it expected transactions to tumble by more than a third this year and prices to slip by 3%."

Hurr... What? Say what now? Sorry, what did you just say? 3%?! Three blinking per cent?! But I thought it was, it was, they said catastrophic and possible meltdown - oooohhhhhhhhh, of course, you're all just estate agents just talking, that's where the Guardian is getting its info, estate agents and RICS, what fantastic sources of information. Well done Grauniad, you useless piece of tat. Cometh the day, and it won't be long, I will dance on your grave (hell hath no fury as a woman misled for decades).

Of which, another great quote from this piece: "Rics is not an organisation that would call for a stamp duty holiday on a whim." Says... RICS!!! And hahapuke, of course it would, RICS would say ANYTHING!

Edit - thought I should put in a bit of support for the RICS bit (as I'm not the Guardian)...

19 SEP 2018 Government must stamp out outdated housing taxes to help young people buy
"RICS has long called on Government to incentivise downsizing, to no avail. One method suggested is to incentivise those with larger homes to move into smaller properties, by making them exempt from stamp duty. [...] Secondly, removing Stamp Duty altogether and adjusting Council Tax rates to account for lost revenue is also seen as a viable option, by just under 20% of respondents. [...] It is not surprising that our professionals feel that residential property taxation is out of kilter. If we consider tax in terms of how they disincentivise certain behaviours, SDLT makes purchasing, moving and making more effective use of stock costly at a time when we need all these things."

5 APR 2019 UK stamp duty: should it be abolished? - guess what their 'expert' suggests?

30 AUG 2019 Can we expect more changes to the Stamp Duty Land Tax Regime?
"Historically, RICS has called on the government to undertake a full-scale review of the SDLT regime, as opposed to the current piecemeal approach, and this view has not changed. [...] The review should also explore the many potential, alternative taxation measures, such as a stamp duty exemption for downsizers; or replacing stamp duty land tax with a reformed council tax."

19 DEC 2019 RICS Housing Forecast 2020: What should Government do next? - of course, 'fix' the stamp duty rules...

12 MAR 2020 Demand grows for UK housing, although uncertainty lies ahead
"The ball is in the Chancellor’s court and his first budget is a great opportunity to deliver the long-term confidence the property industry and investors need – he can achieve this by reviewing stamp duty to encourage the supply of more homes, ensuring its fit for the twenty first century".

Edited by North London Rent Girl
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.