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As we are currently in lockdown, with restrictive measures and nearly 1 million new people claiming, the end of this month many people will not get pay cheques.

So how do the people of housepricecrash purpose we exit this situation? And the likely changes to house prices over the next 1-5 years?

My theory is that, the goverment will ease certain restrictions in the next 3 weeks.

This based on the following ideas:

We opted for herd immunity.

We know the virus is unlikely to ever disappear, it's now worldwide.

We cannot afford the economic impact, long term.

Unrest will result from lack of generated household income.

The current strategy is to ease NHS pressure and enable healthcare adjustment.

Once achieved, with new hospitals and testing capacity, a slow trickle of people will come into the hospital over the duration, until herd immunity is achieved.

In other words, long term, the mass majority will be exposed to the virus and we will go back to a somewhat normal life (social distancing/working from home if possible) until, herd immunity is achieved.

That said, it's likely we will see houses of older owners trickling onto the market at a slower rate, as mortality is around 10% for over 70s.

We may see an increase in first time buyers, driving up the bottom end, after the initial fall, due to inheritance. Current owners will not sell due to being in negative equity and will wait until balance is restored.


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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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