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No housing market in 2020!


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It has occurred to me that there is not going to be a housing market in 2020. Remember the spring bounce!

I was just looking at the poll about Brexit and thinking the effects of corona crisis lockdowns are going to dwarf that.

Most economic activity has completely stopped. It will probably remain this way for months. Spring is normally a busy time for the housing market. After the lockdowns there is likely to be so much uncertainty that lenders will be risk adverse. People may want to buy, but may find that offers have been withdrawn pending review. Others will find that very large deposits are now required.

Everything is happening so suddenly. While we are all in lockdown: The entire lending market is repricing for risk and uncertainty.

We used to wonder what would happen if houses had to be bought with out borrowing. A cash only market! This maybe that year!

Edit: Will the housing market start again this year?

Edited by Belfast Boy
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2 hours ago, Belfast Boy said:

We used to wonder what would happen if houses had to be bought with out borrowing. A cash only market! This maybe that year!

The answer is that nobody sells, as long as they can afford to keep paying their mortgage.

Before this happened boom times were back and people have mostly forgotten about the crash. They won't believe that their house might be worth less than it was a year ago. They'll refuse to sell. Unless they have to.

So I think we'll just see a dead housing market for at least 6 months.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

The answer is that nobody sells, as long as they can afford to keep paying their mortgage.

Before this happened boom times were back and people have mostly forgotten about the crash. They won't believe that their house might be worth less than it was a year ago. They'll refuse to sell. Unless they have to.

So I think we'll just see a dead housing market for at least 6 months.

Not sure it works that way. 20k people have moved on to universal credit in the past couple of weeks. They will be feeling the pain. How long will bank forbearance last? 

Then you have the ones where their fixed rate will end. If the banks don't start offering higher LTV products, these people will move to SVRs that are 3,4,5x as expensive. All while you've either been made redundant or your on 80% wages. 

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Not sure it works that way. 20k people have moved on to universal credit in the past couple of weeks. They will be feeling the pain. How long will bank forbearance last? 

Then you have the ones where their fixed rate will end. If the banks don't start offering higher LTV products, these people will move to SVRs that are 3,4,5x as expensive. All while you've either been made redundant or your on 80% wages. 

Both fair points.

Many people live paycheck to paycheck and a 20% pay cut would see them struggling to meet their bills.

But then the government is giving people mortgage holidays aren't they - I think the hope is that they throw money at folk to keep the market where it is so it can resume where it was after this is over in a few months.

I think the most important thing is going to be mortgage rates; if they do actually go up significantly then yes house prices are going way down. Same with bigger deposits being required, but I'll be interested to see if that actually continues after the peak of this.

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  • 419 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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