Surveyor - impossible to value houses - "might've gone down by 25%-50% I just don't know"

[Locke]

20 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

Going to work is a bit of a break for the wife as much as anything.

Why have kids if they are such a burden?

The physiological effect on an infant of 20 hours per week away form their primary caregiver is the same as total abandonment. That is abuse.

22 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

If she stopped working till school, she'd be starting from nothing. I think a lot of women work part time during the early years so they still have a place in the world once they child is grown up.

This is Communist anti-family propaganda.

22 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

That said I know you're a troll, sooo.

Think what you believe. I deal in facts as much as possible.

[Si1]

35 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

Going to work is a bit of a break for the wife as much as anything.

That's fair enough to a degree. Some people get a lot out of work.

35 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

Ifshe stopped working till school, she'd be starting from nothing. I think a lot of women work part time during the early years so they still have a place in the world once they child is grown up.

I'm not sure about that. Most potential employers tolerate a gap in a woman's CV when they had young children. Getting back into the workforce after that doesn't look hard.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

I have always found this insistence of mothers to dump their kids off with strangers so that they can traipse off and earn effectively far below minimum wage when the childcare is taken into account, annoying and irresponsible.

It depends on the age.

Under 2 years you've got a point.

Over 2 then the kid needs to start socialising with other kids and non family members.

Mrs spy (ey primary teacher) can spot the kids whove not been yo pre school. And it's always the kids whod benefit the most - feckless, useless parent. And it's free, but parent cannot be arsed to get up and dressed by 10am.

 

 

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

Not yet.

Understand, I am fully in support of social networking and gathering, but I think that it must be done 100% by the parents. It is neglectful and irresponsible to hand your toddlers off to strangers.

My sister is [was] a daycare nurse and she is disgusted by the other women who work and particularly run these places. She was going to quit actually before WuFlu struck.

No, problem with kids dhove only socialised with families is they are little princes n princesses. As soon as a kid grasps there are other kids the better.

[Locke]

19 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Mrs spy (ey primary teacher) can spot the kids whove not been yo pre school. And it's always the kids whod benefit the most - feckless, useless parent. And it's free, but parent cannot be arsed to get up and dressed by 10am.

You don't think that that might have something to do with the low quality of parenting, rather than the failure to cart them off to tiny prison?

The choice is not limited baby prison vs chav home prison

19 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No, problem with kids dhove only socialised with families is they are little princes n princesses. As soon as a kid grasps there are other kids the better.

Well that's not what I said, is it?

1 hour ago, Locke said:

I am fully in support of social networking and gathering

 

[Hullabaloo82]

10 hours ago, spyguy said:

House sales in the UK will collapse this year as the coronavirus pandemic puts the property market into deep freeze. But prices will fall by only 3% and will rebound next year, according to global consultancy Knight Frank.

In the first reassessment of the property market by one of the major forecasters, Knight Frank said the number of house sales in the UK would plummet from 1,175,000 last year to just 734,000 this year.

 

Oh dear, granidain journos.

Global consultancy. Then major forecaster.

I wish I was clever, like a journo.

I probably just google, to check

https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/

Despite the blather, they are estate agents.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/knight-frank-profits-hit-by-fall-off-in-top-property-sales-8mrvnn06m

 

 

 

Oh Christ. This is the problem with this site. People like you talk a good game but then you have to Google Knight Frank and your assessment is "just an estate agent". 

I get it's disappointing but the 25% fall prophesied is wishful thinking unless you wind up in a position where there are significant numbers of forced sellers which the government has gone to great pains to avoid. Hsbc have said today their full range of mortgage products is available at any LTV. Even nationwide aren't increasing their minimum deposit out of fears for the market, it's down to the simple fact they don't want to send anyone out to physically inspect your house, something most lenders will do for high LTV loans. Probably make do with a "drive by" for 75% and below.

Come back in 3 months, when the furlough period ends. Then we'll see. Don't hold your breath though, odds on government will keep the bailouts flowing. 

[Hullabaloo82]

6 hours ago, Locke said:

Why have kids if they are such a burden?

The physiological effect on an infant of 20 hours per week away form their primary caregiver is the same as total abandonment. That is abuse.

This is Communist anti-family propaganda.

Think what you believe. I deal in facts as much as possible.

Holy crap you come out with some ********, don't you?

Utter nonsense. First thing my nearly 4 year old wants to do when "the naughty virus goes away"? "Go to my school!" Took him all of .5 seconds to come to that conclusion. 

Loves his pre school, can't wait to go to big school, he's full of confidence, sociable, has loads of friends and learning well. 

You'll learn all this on the rare chance you stop being an incel, red pill weirdo and actually have a child. 

"Communist anti family propaganda". Saving that one for the HPC scrapbook.

[blackhole]

26 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Oh Christ. This is the problem with this site. People like you talk a good game but then you have to Google Knight Frank and your assessment is "just an estate agent". 

I'm sure Knight Frank took into account matters such as https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-pandemic-161081 - 10 million in the US file for jobless claims. 

Also getting reports of US Mortgage industry asking for bailouts left right and center, with one broker in particular cutting 70% jobs.

It's hard to think the UK won't have something similar, to be honest.  Especially given the "gig" based economy much of the new service sector jobs are based on.

We'll see in 3 months how much more the gov can can-kick not only house prices, but millions of jobless in the UK too I guess.

Edited April 6, 2020 by blackhole

[Kosmin]

On 04/04/2020 at 22:16, longgone said:

try south west london  

3x as much since HTB i have seen on some houses. 

Maybe if they knocked the house down and built a much bigger one. 

Prices jumped up (maybe 40% in some parts of London) in 2013-14, but then the growth slowed and prices fell slightly subsequently.

[Aidan Ap Word]

2 minutes ago, blackhole said:

I'm sure Knight Frank took into account matters such as https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-pandemic-161081 - 10 million in the US file for jobless claims. 

Also getting reports of US Mortgage industry asking for bailouts left right and center, with one broker in particular cutting 70% jobs.

It's hard to think the UK won't have something similar, to be honest.  Especially given the "gig" based economy much of the new service sector jobs are based on.

We'll see in 3 months how much more the gov can can-kick not only house prices, but millions of jobless in the UK too I guess.

10million is a significant percentage of the US workforce (at about 157 million). 10 million here in Brittain would be an altogether different thing of course.

The scale of the bail outs that have already been issues is enormous. At least this time some of the bailout is going to directly to US firms (esp. smaller one) ... or it would do if the loan providers could do the paperwork fast enough ... (hint: one of the packages in the US is referred to as PPP (if you fancy applying - it's here)).

[Aidan Ap Word]

On 04/04/2020 at 16:43, regprentice said:

Mark Gaisford had an interesting recruiters Webinar on linkedin yesterday had 6 recruiters all arguing that recruiters fees couldn't possibly drop as the quality of service would continue, and if anything rates may need to rise due to the skills needed to navigate the worse market conditions. 

They argued sure some recruiters might drop their rates.... But only because they are weak and don't have a USP.

Self important vermin in all sales/consulting/recruiting markets everywhere will be saying the same thing. Some of these markets will be a bloodbath. 

Recruitment agent. Estate agent. {pick anything} agent.

For most of them it's easy to tell when they are lying. Lips. Moving.

Except maybe travel agent - but even then their business model is based on bulk buy and slice, or kickbacks. But that industry isn't doing that well anymore anyway ...

[blackhole]

It's one thing having a mortgage product "available", its another thing actually being accepted.  Especially if your in an industry hit by COVID particularly hard.

[GreenDevil]

On 03/04/2020 at 17:42, scottbeard said:

At the moment I think the market is essentially frozen - you just couldn't move house if you wanted to. 

Therefore right now there isn't really a market price - it's a case of #VALUE (for those famliar with Excel!)

There are so many moving parts to this it's hard to really know where it lands - the real values must go down, of course, and most of the factors would suggest a nominal house price fall too, but equally there are inflation-creating measures (QE etc) that work against that.

I don't really think we will see a clear picture until 6 months or more from now.

In a situation like this its true that houses cant be valued. If people cant get the money, then the houses cant be sold. If you can get hold of the cash or the mortgage, and you're the only bidder, bid low. If the owner is desparate to sell, then the must sell it at the offer price. However its more likely they will sit tight if the possibly can.

I watched an online property auction, prices didnt seem particualy cheap, buying a house like on ebay style is NOT going to get you the absolute best price IMO.

Best way is probably when the agents reopen, test the market with some low balls offers and see what happens. After a few months if nothing is selling then you might get a deal. However, id expect the first thing the governbankment do, is some extra measures to zoom the housing market. Stamp duty holiday perhaps, -ve interest rates for the first year blah blah.

[longgone]

3 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Maybe if they knocked the house down and built a much bigger one. 

Prices jumped up (maybe 40% in some parts of London) in 2013-14, but then the growth slowed and prices fell slightly subsequently.

Flat  2 

i tried to buy this and was denied by the agent using every trick in the book to stop me gaining entry. 

and can show you loads like this 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^1346933&searchLocation=KT6+6EL 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, longgone said:

Flat  2 

i tried to buy this and was denied by the agent using every trick in the book to stop me gaining entry. 

and can show you loads like this 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^1346933&searchLocation=KT6+6EL 

You tried to buy the whole postcode?

[longgone]

27 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You tried to buy the whole postcode?

Says flat 2 don't it

[GregBowman]

11 hours ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Holy crap you come out with some ********, don't you?

Utter nonsense. First thing my nearly 4 year old wants to do when "the naughty virus goes away"? "Go to my school!" Took him all of .5 seconds to come to that conclusion. 

Loves his pre school, can't wait to go to big school, he's full of confidence, sociable, has loads of friends and learning well. 

You'll learn all this on the rare chance you stop being an incel, red pill weirdo and actually have a child. 

"Communist anti family propaganda". Saving that one for the HPC scrapbook.

I have the nut nut Locke on ignore but even for him that’s a classic - school as abuse - just when you think you have heard him spout everything - I think the whole post is for the scrap book - the cartoon thing says something not sure what but don’t think it’s good 

[Longtermrenter]

1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

I have the nut nut Locke on ignore but even for him that’s a classic - school as abuse - just when you think you have heard him spout everything - I think the whole post is for the scrap book - the cartoon thing says something not sure what but don’t think it’s good 

I think the truth lies somewhere in between: school is poisonous for some kids and an elixir for others. For some it is just so-so. For some the socialisation equates to being bullied, forced to dress the same way or buy the same stuff. For others it is an amazing communal experience with great friendship bonds. We could do with a system that takes into account all experiences and supports those that thrive better at home or from self-learning.

[Innkeeper]

21 minutes ago, Longtermrenter said:

I think the truth lies somewhere in between: school is poisonous for some kids and an elixir for others. For some it is just so-so. For some the socialisation equates to being bullied, forced to dress the same way or buy the same stuff. For others it is an amazing communal experience with great friendship bonds. We could do with a system that takes into account all experiences and supports those that thrive better at home or from self-learning.

?. My eldest daughter loved nursery and my youngest hated it (same nursery and 16 months apart) We took the youngest out after a while but were in a position to do so because my wife was at home at that time but that’s not an option to many.  Both went on to do very well at school but are quite different characters.  

 

 

 

 

 

[GregBowman]

45 minutes ago, Longtermrenter said:

I think the truth lies somewhere in between: school is poisonous for some kids and an elixir for others. For some it is just so-so. For some the socialisation equates to being bullied, forced to dress the same way or buy the same stuff. For others it is an amazing communal experience with great friendship bonds. We could do with a system that takes into account all experiences and supports those that thrive better at home or from self-learning.

You don’t belong on here - reasoned rational and totally makes sense - be away with you ??

Edited April 7, 2020 by GregBowman

[spyguy]

13 hours ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Oh Christ. This is the problem with this site. People like you talk a good game but then you have to Google Knight Frank and your assessment is "just an estate agent". 

I get it's disappointing but the 25% fall prophesied is wishful thinking unless you wind up in a position where there are significant numbers of forced sellers which the government has gone to great pains to avoid. Hsbc have said today their full range of mortgage products is available at any LTV. Even nationwide aren't increasing their minimum deposit out of fears for the market, it's down to the simple fact they don't want to send anyone out to physically inspect your house, something most lenders will do for high LTV loans. Probably make do with a "drive by" for 75% and below.

Come back in 3 months, when the furlough period ends. Then we'll see. Don't hold your breath though, odds on government will keep the bailouts flowing. 

Oh, I know who Knight Frank are. Sadly, the journo doesnt.

London/Se prices have been falling for a few years now. 

Any LTV HSBC??? Have you tried getting a HSBC mortgage? They rarely make an ofer for 80%++

Nationwide appear to be falling apart.

 

[Bugger BTL]

20 hours ago, Si1 said:

That's fair enough to a degree. Some people get a lot out of work.

I'm not sure about that. Most potential employers tolerate a gap in a woman's CV when they had young children. Getting back into the workforce after that doesn't look hard.

You're being quite optimistic there.

I also note with interest that the fathers seem to be exempted from this discussion, as though there's no way care of the children might be their responsibility too or that the children might actually get some benefit from being in the sole care of their father for some of the time. That is pretty anti-family in itself. When ours were young, my husband and I both worked part time and shared childcare, and the children were every bit as attached to him as to me. I appreciate that this isn't practically doable for everyone, but it has a great deal to recommend it where it can be achieved.

[2buyornot2buy]

20 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Tesla have far fewer suppliers as a much higher proportion of the car of is built in house. Less chance of production being held up because a supplier fails or is slow to resume production.

They were lucky in that respect having just completed a capital raising exercise at a very high share price. If this had happened a year ago they would have been in serious trouble

VW components has 80000 employees in 61 plants. I'd be confident enough in saying they a higher percentage of their cars are built in house. 

Tesla raised $2 billion. Won't take them long to burn through that. 

 

[Si1]

11 minutes ago, Bugger BTL said:

 

I also note with interest that the fathers seem to be exempted from this discussion, 

They're not exempted at all. The principle applies whichever (or both) have time off to raise the kids.

I also wasn't being optimistic, I was relying on my own experience.

Feel free to furnish me with your own experience of women (or men) locked out of the jobs market after staying at home for kids.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Si1

[spyguy]

20 minutes ago, Si1 said:

They're not exempted at all. The principle applies whichever (or both) have time off to raise the kids.

I also wasn't being optimistic, I was relying on my own experience.

Feel free to furnish me with your own experience of women (or men) locked out of the jobs market after staying at home for kids.

My experience is typical.

mrs spy stayed off for work for 5 years, till the youngest was 4 - 2 kids, 2 year gap.

she worked part-time for 2 years.

Then started full-time.

I take time off if the kids are ill or need somethign doing. About 5 days a year.

There was no issue with her returning to work.