NW Mar 2020 +0.8% MoM

[neon tetra]

+3.0% YoY

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2020/Mar_2020.pdf

Not yet including Coronavirus effects. 
(Separate from the other NW corona thread for search ability)

Plates spinning just a bit longer.

[LetsBuild]

Look at that take off ramp - Shame Coronavirus has come to **** on their parade ?

[Locke]

Kind of these rat bastards to include a chart which shows why this is a problem and what the solution is

 

[stuckmojo]

Beauty. It will be flat for the next couple of months and then abyss territory. 

[msi]

Once the economic damage ripples out NW will either show the abyss or be called out for the shamless crap they publish

[rantnrave]

Will this report be pulled for a few months and not published?

[Smiley George]

Amazing how 'Annual % Change' column in the table on page 3 has managed to stay above 0% over the past couple of years. A sceptic might claim these figures are manipulated.

Can't wait to see what they pull out of the bag to represent the impending crash, I reckon they'll invert the y-axis so that -ve numbers are above the line, the scamps.

[msi]

1 hour ago, Smiley George said:

Can't wait to see what they pull out of the bag to represent the impending crash, I reckon they'll invert the y-axis so that -ve numbers are above the line, the scamps.

Right out of the book of Gordon Brown and his 'negative growth'

[Doner Kebab]

Just goes to show without the virus and subsequent meltdown we might well have had yet another year with no YoY drops. Another year of forlorn hope for millions of people who just want their own roof over their heads. The longer this goes on the better the prospect for those millions of people.

[Voice of Doom]

This rise is like the delight in getting a slightly larger whisky measure than you expected on a certain ship halfway across the Atlantic in 1912.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Voice of Doom

[spyguy]

22 hours ago, msi said:

Once the economic damage ripples out NW will either show the abyss or be called out for the shamless crap they publish

You are assuming they are still going to be solvent.

With their exposure to first IO BTL, followed by HTB, its going to pretty close/hairy.

 

[spyguy]

23 hours ago, Locke said:

Kind of these rat bastards to include a chart which shows why this is a problem and what the solution is

 

 

And ,due to the nature of London work and the high HPE, Im expecting London/SE to be hit the most..

Never rain. always pours.

 

[Locke]

1 minute ago, spyguy said:

 

And ,due to the nature of London work and the high HPE, Im expecting London/SE to be hit the most..

Never rain. always pours.

 

I read a joke that went something like

The people moving from Alabama to Texas are raising the IQ in both States

That graph is an average for the UK right?

What if the house prices outside London are skewing the average price down, while the salaries in London are skewing the average earnings up?

The situation could be worse across the board

[spyguy]

22 hours ago, Smiley George said:

Amazing how 'Annual % Change' column in the table on page 3 has managed to stay above 0% over the past couple of years. A sceptic might claim these figures are manipulated.

Can't wait to see what they pull out of the bag to represent the impending crash, I reckon they'll invert the y-axis so that -ve numbers are above the line, the scamps.

I use homes.co.uk

Much better to look at charts based on th actual sales prices rather than an aggregate line thats been thru a team of bent economists then presented for board approval.

The Northern areas that I track show pretty much a flat line since ~2004ish, so about a 20-30% real reduction.

And they show collapse in sales, despite every brassy trollop from Pudsey/Rotherham/Wakey trying to buy a holiday let, -  Cant go wrong with a cottage in whitby ....

There will be no summer this year. Next year Im expecting the few who've got money left to go abroad.

 

 

 

 

[spyguy]

6 minutes ago, Locke said:

I read a joke that went something like

The people moving from Alabama to Texas are raising the IQ in both States

That graph is an average for the UK right?

What if the house prices outside London are skewing the average price down, while the salaries in London are skewing the average earnings up?

The situation could be worse across the board

I was chit chatting with my mum a few months ago.We were talking about a girl I grew up with who lives in London. She works at one of the auction houses, so very unique job, not finance, so I dont its going to be hugely well paid. Hubby does nothing of note.

I knew they bought a house. I did not know it was so small - her mother had been down - and so way away - one of these areas where, as the crow flies, its only ~10ish miles away but takes her 1h to commute.

Anyhow, her mum was saying she worried about her job and shes got a ~500k mortgage.

Even if she did not pay any interest, repayment would be 25k/year for 20 years.

Shes already down about 10-20% with the last few years of falls in London.

Shes too old to go bust and start again.

 

 

 

[Locke]

41 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I did not know it was so small -

That's it as well, these figures are per-unit and not sq.ft. 

On that basis, we are probably stretched to absurd levels.

[mrpleasant]

Isn't it the NW who reverts to 'quarterly rise' headlines when MoM is down?  I guess they've still got decades and centuries as a measure when YoY goes negative (horribly).

[LetsBuild]

On 04/04/2020 at 07:37, mrpleasant said:

Isn't it the NW who reverts to 'quarterly rise' headlines when MoM is down?  I guess they've still got decades and centuries as a measure when YoY goes negative (horribly).

Fingers crossed they have to use the century measure as the decade on decade also goes negative!

[Dorkins]

On 03/04/2020 at 08:24, spyguy said:

I was chit chatting with my mum a few months ago.We were talking about a girl I grew up with who lives in London. She works at one of the auction houses, so very unique job, not finance, so I dont its going to be hugely well paid. Hubby does nothing of note.

I knew they bought a house. I did not know it was so small - her mother had been down - and so way away - one of these areas where, as the crow flies, its only ~10ish miles away but takes her 1h to commute.

Anyhow, her mum was saying she worried about her job and shes got a ~500k mortgage.

Even if she did not pay any interest, repayment would be 25k/year for 20 years.

Shes already down about 10-20% with the last few years of falls in London.

Shes too old to go bust and start again.

Yes, I like doing the capital-only repayment calculation too whenever people start hyperventilating about interest rate cuts meaning another big leg up. Even if mortgages were interest free the cost of repaying the capital is already basically limiting in much of London/SE.

[spyguy]

22 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Yes, I like doing the capital-only repayment calculation too whenever people start hyperventilating about interest rate cuts meaning another big leg up. Even if mortgages were interest free the cost of repaying the capital is already basically limiting in much of London/SE.

Start the SVR game too, when they find they cannot remortgage at super-duper low rates and end up on ~5%.

Thats another 25k, along with  25k repayment. Needing about ~100k of earned income to just service the mortgage. You know, well into the top 1% of UK earnings.

 

[simon2]

How the hell did they get such a mortgage in the first place?

Surely the total household income is at least £100,000.

 

[spyguy]

28 minutes ago, simon2 said:

How the hell did they get such a mortgage in the first place?

Surely the total household income is at least £100,000.

 

I genuinely dont know.

There's two  mums involved so the numbers are probably mangled  -maybe they bought the house for 500k and the mortgage is a lot less.

If they do have a 500k mortgages then theyd need somewhere in the region of 150k of income which Im pretty sure they dont have.

Im pretty sure they got the mortgage when MMR was active.

I do know of a few people who took on stupid mortgages after 2008 and before MMR was let loose. All of them have been repo'd or sold up.

 

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Start the SVR game too, when they find they cannot remortgage at super-duper low rates and end up on ~5%.

Thats another 25k, along with  25k repayment. Needing about ~100k of earned income to just service the mortgage. You know, well into the top 1% of UK earnings.

 

Yes, the London/SE HPC is going to be spectacular viewing. Prices drop, LTVs skyrocket, no lenders want to touch anybody with a 3 figure LTV so those borrowers end up on SVRs, cash flow negative, savings running down, repo/distressed sale. Continue until the median income household in London/SE is priced back into buying, maybe even the household at the 20th percentile.

[Voice of Doom]

Agreed. And we can also factor in landlords struggling to cover their mortgages as rents decline.