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15% decline in GDP expected Q1 20/21


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1 hour ago, papag said:

Take out the supermarkets etc and the figs would be far worse 

Well yes, if you take out the things that HAVEN'T stopped then it becomes worse?!  And when you say "supermarkets etc" not sure what that "etc" group is?

I'm actually surprised that the figures isn't more than 15%, but I guess a large part of GDP is just spending on essentials (public sector workers, food, energy etc) that hasn't stopped.  A lot of retail and entertainment must have just fallen to zero in recent weeks.

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Will be interesting to see how they square Lower GDP AND increasing money printing AND credit downgrade without leading to a rapid devaluation and increased IRs.

Whoever out of the US, Eurozone, and UK recovers last will have a currency that's toast

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33 minutes ago, msi said:

Will be interesting to see how they square Lower GDP AND increasing money printing AND credit downgrade without leading to a rapid devaluation and increased IRs.

Whoever out of the US, Eurozone, and UK recovers last will have a currency that's toast

I was thinking that. As more and more countries print in the £250-350Bn ranges. Surely that amount of debt can't flood the market without significantly Impacting the return.

Edited by regprentice
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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Well yes, if you take out the things that HAVEN'T stopped then it becomes worse?!  And when you say "supermarkets etc" not sure what that "etc" group is?

 

Total Grocery,  not sure of the percentage think its around 12% of GDP

 

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10 hours ago, regprentice said:

I was thinking that. As more and more countries print in the £250-350Bn ranges. Surely that amount of debt can't flood the market without significantly Impacting the return.

The central banks will buy the debt themselves either directly or at one step removed. 

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6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The central banks will buy the debt themselves either directly or at one step removed. 

If they prevent it form having an effect, what was the point in doing it in the first place?

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10 minutes ago, Locke said:

If they prevent it form having an effect, what was the point in doing it in the first place?

Works alongside QE and bank lending schemes to keep the coupon down. Depending on your view either a rigged market or a way of preventing private investors from rigging the market in their favour. 

 

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GDP exponential growth can't continue forever, just like coronavirus infection can't continue to rise..... sometimes other things have to take priority over continuous growth.....when/if the world population declines, growth will decline......it is only people, numbers of people that enable growth.?

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I am still amazed at the massive panic to what is a very insignificant medical threat when looked at with a rational mind. There is more than enough evidence to say that the chicken littles have taken over the asylum..

The evidence for a serious malaise to the economy is however, quite real. I am one of those who realised that the fallout from GFC1 was not being been cleared up. Dropping interest rates bailing out the masters of the universe and buying up any old crap via QE kept things moving along, now it isn't.
With GFC1 it took the best part of two years to bail out, lower interest rates and pump out QE. This meltdown for GFC2 has happened in just this last month, a month in which interest rates are virtually zeroed and QE cranked up again.
There are some running around saying "buy the dip"....ah well, fools and their money....Digger Mansions will stick with its gold

 

The madness of the overreaction to Covid 19 has economic ramifications that cannot be put back together again. There is going to be a massive economic contraction, all the hype from the government about "doing all it takes" is just smooth talking a mob that they have put in a flap in the first place..._

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The issue with covid 19 isn't the deaths. It's the fact there are so many seriously ill that required hospital admission that overwhelms the health care system.

Treating it seems to be that you lose at least 10% of your health care staff for weeks.

Not doing anything will cripple the economy and acting cripples the economy it's a choice between a hard place or a rock.

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The issue with Covid 19 is an historically underfunded NHS that is geared to run at 98% + occupancy. Look at the way they deal with winter demand, they just cancel operations and appointments to get through. 
With Covid 19 we find that austerity means we haven't got basics for an emergency such as face masks, hand sanitizers and aprons. In fact there seems  to have been no emergency planning in place for a medical crisis of any sort.

Covid 19 hitting at a time of economic meltdown has just taken the situation from an unmanageable financial crisis to an impossible to manage mess and nobody from the government or media wants to know..._

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No need to have an emergency if all international travel in and out of China had been shutdown in January. China should have been quarantined.

With a pandemic you have one chance to stop it. They did everything they could to ensure this spread this all over the globe.

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3 hours ago, interestrateripoff said:

No need to have an emergency if all international travel in and out of China had been shutdown in January. China should have been quarantined.

With a pandemic you have one chance to stop it. They did everything they could to ensure this spread this all over the globe.

Indeed china should have been shutdown immediately Trump was right instead the guardian was focussing on the 'raycist innit' because a few people had bad experiences after they returned from visiting family in china post Chinese new year. Absolutely missing the important point from the trump bashers yet again.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/biggest-decline-ever-goldman-now-sees-us-gdp-crashing-34-q2

We were right, because early on Monday morning Goldman's Haztius did just that, and in a report titled "The Sudden Stop: A Deeper Trough, A Bigger Rebound", he writes that he is "making further significant adjustments to our GDP and employment estimates. We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in qoq annualized terms (vs. -6% and -24% previously) and see the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear (vs. 9% previously)."

And yet stocks keeps going up.

 

The US consumer is obviously going to be jumping straight into shopping malls..... hard to see how the US will cope with mass bankruptcies and the losses sorry Fed printing to make good the losses for the billionaire finances.

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4 hours ago, DiggerUK said:

I am still amazed at the massive panic to what is a very insignificant medical threat when looked at with a rational mind. There is more than enough evidence to say that the chicken littles have taken over the asylum..

The evidence for a serious malaise to the economy is however, quite real. I am one of those who realised that the fallout from GFC1 was not being been cleared up. Dropping interest rates bailing out the masters of the universe and buying up any old crap via QE kept things moving along, now it isn't.
With GFC1 it took the best part of two years to bail out, lower interest rates and pump out QE. This meltdown for GFC2 has happened in just this last month, a month in which interest rates are virtually zeroed and QE cranked up again.
There are some running around saying "buy the dip"....ah well, fools and their money....Digger Mansions will stick with its gold

 

The madness of the overreaction to Covid 19 has economic ramifications that cannot be put back together again. There is going to be a massive economic contraction, all the hype from the government about "doing all it takes" is just smooth talking a mob that they have put in a flap in the first place..._

ever seen a roller coaster get stuck at the bottom ?  all that pent up excitement gone in seconds from paying the admission fee ;) 

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8 hours ago, DiggerUK said:

I am still amazed at the massive panic to what is a very insignificant medical threat when looked at with a rational mind. There is more than enough evidence to say that the chicken littles have taken over the asylum..

...

The madness of the overreaction to Covid 19 has economic ramifications that cannot be put back together again. There is going to be a massive economic contraction, all the hype from the government about "doing all it takes" is just smooth talking a mob that they have put in a flap in the first place..._

I'm flabbergasted that after all this time there are STILL people who don't see COVID 19 as significant, because it "only" kills thousands of people (and not millions) in the UK.  This is NOT "just flu" - it is a massive wave of unexpected very poorly people hitting the healthcare system all at once. 

7 hours ago, DiggerUK said:

The issue with Covid 19 is an historically underfunded NHS that is geared to run at 98% + occupancy. Look at the way they deal with winter demand, they just cancel operations and appointments to get through. 
With Covid 19 we find that austerity means we haven't got basics for an emergency such as face masks, hand sanitizers and aprons. In fact there seems  to have been no emergency planning in place for a medical crisis of any sort.

Hang on a minute, in your previous post it was "an insignificant threat" and now it's a "crisis?"

And if the issue is the NHS, why is it Spain, Italy, the US etc etc are all suffering as badly (and in fact worse)?

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  • 419 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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