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House Price Crash Forum

Forthcoming market bottom - when?


Forthcoming market bottom - when?  

45 members have voted

  1. 1. Forthcoming market bottom - when? - nationally, on average

    • within the next 2 years
      25
    • 2-5 years
      11
    • 5 years or later..... (tumbleweed)
      4
    • Never - prices will not fall in nominal terms
      5


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Listen, there is a difference between price and value.

House prices are going to implode, very soon. 

I think that GBP will collapse shortly thereafter, which may send their price to the moon, but they remain stable or fall when measured in tins of fish.

We could then have years to decades of stagflation if the kleptocratic control freaks in charge are not dealt with.

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Price realisation will require the immediate end of the cuurent crisis and vendors to accept the changed reality. Nothing to see for six months at least.

Lehmann imploded Oct 2008 and house prices were noticeably down six to nine months later.

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Jerky bear market until the late 2020s, lots of morale sapping mini-recoveries followed by sudden legs down. Think Nikkei 225 1990-2000s. The trend will be more obvious in London/SE where houses are more overpriced.

Edited by Dorkins
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I think that the Coronavirus thing will be over in the next few weeks due to Chloroquine...Neil Ferguson is saying today that the NHS will cope now, but the underlying epidemiology points to an explosion of severe cases, unless there is a successful intervention in the offing.

However, the financial bubble has finally burst, and even with the end of lockdowns etc, the damage is done. No one has talked about sovereign debt crises...Italy, Spain and Turkey...all toast, and the Euro falling apart..these will keep everyone in the doldrums. The UK pound will plod along I think. Then there is Brexit...that little feast of uncertainty will keep any potential buyers at bay.

I think we will see the market flatlining till September, then start to completely crater, and down 20% by this time next year, and maybe hitting bottom summer 2021 at -25%.

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1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

I think that the Coronavirus thing will be over in the next few weeks due to Chloroquine

I'm sure if people in USA USA USA, take heed of trump's advice then it'll all be over.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/coronavirus-cure-kills-man-after-trump-touts-chloroquine-phosphate

 

Edited by crazypabs
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20 hours ago, Ghostly said:

I’m expecting a lot of forbearance and then people to get their jobs back when the crisis is over. I’m not sure why this would result in things changing.

I don’t think enough people will die to have an impact on prices.

People these days have short memories and the risk of having high debt with no safety net will soon be forgotten. 

But just look at 1989-90 and 2008-9.  No one died and yet prices plummeted.  It's the financial impacts of the crisis (unemployment etc) that have the impact.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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