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Forbes - depression not a recession


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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Bernanke and Taleb say it's more like a natural disaster ( which technically it actually is). 

A natural disaster that is shifting us from an entrenched recession into a depression.

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35 minutes ago, dougless said:

A natural disaster that is shifting us from an entrenched recession into a depression.

Indeed. It's hard to gauge. 

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A recession is a depression, because after the words negative connotations after the depression the word got dropped and became something else whose definition isn't clearly defined, much like a recession whose current definition was created so a President could say the US wasn't in a recession..

Much like crisis and panics.  Even recession is a flaky word, has downturn already been dropped?

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If you looking for another job it's a recession.

If you looking for food it's a depression.

Glib comments aside, this is going to be painful.  The stimulus packages are like giving adrenaline and morphine to a car crash victim.  You get immediate stabilisation, but unless you follow up with systemic reform the outcome is going to be grim.

 

 

 

 

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Anyway, at this stage, job lost are easy to be brought back (mainly low service, like office cleaning...once office re open they will be there from day 1). 
Same with everything else. This is not a war. No blitzs, no bombs from the sky, warehouse still there to start production again, machine still there and you just need to press the button, rads and railways still there to transports goods.

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1 hour ago, Neapolitan said:

Anyway, at this stage, job lost are easy to be brought back (mainly low service, like office cleaning...once office re open they will be there from day 1). 
Same with everything else. This is not a war. No blitzs, no bombs from the sky, warehouse still there to start production again, machine still there and you just need to press the button, rads and railways still there to transports goods.

The trouble is with a collapse in demand which kills the service sector for years or more. It's a feedback effect.

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2 hours ago, Simhadri said:

They will print £ to no end.

An immense success in Zimbabwe and Weimar germany.  Also an astounding success in China numerous times between 1000 -1500 to such an extend the population preferred counterfeit money to govt issued money.

Printing money is not going to solve anything.

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1 hour ago, Jimmyjammy001 said:

US Unemployment figures released today for just the past week, it is truly staggering! What's next week going to be like?! 

MW-ID110_jobles_ZG_20200326090736.jpg

This graph will be remembered for many decades to come.

Massive spike like Mongolian empire expanding in no time.

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6 hours ago, msi said:

If you looking for another job it's a recession.

If you looking for food it's a depression.

Glib comments aside, this is going to be painful.  The stimulus packages are like giving adrenaline and morphine to a car crash victim.  You get immediate stabilisation, but unless you follow up with systemic reform the outcome is going to be grim.

 

 

 

 

I think that's a great analogy. The hopeful part me of can see radical, positive change arising from this, though the fearful side sees a one-last-heave attitude to try to save the system as it stands.

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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