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OnTheMarket/John Charcol 10% hpc this year


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House prices to drop 10% thanks to virus, warns OnTheMarket partner

A mortgage broker that’s just become a partner of OnTheMarket is warning that house prices are likely to fall 10 per cent over the rest of this year because of the virus crisis.

John Charcol is saying that the peak UK house price for 2020 is likely to be the one recorded in the March Nationwide house price index - already released - or in the price reflected next month by the government.s UK House Price Index.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2020/3/house-prices-to-drop-10-thanks-to-virus-warns-onthemarket-partner

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Gonna be a while I think. And I think there would be huge vested interests. Like for the supermarkets, reporting on panic actually increases the panic. 

If there are hardly any transactions, then they can say there is no house price decline. I am sure they would find some kind of 'adjusted' measure to be the headline one first. 

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2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is uncle Ray still there?

Charcol’s mortgage technical manager Ray Boulger expects prices to fall 10 per cent by year end, with transactions tumbling in the next three months alone to a figure lower than that recorded at the worst depths of the 2009 credit crunch.

“It is clear activity in the property market will be severely curtailed, not only because of the economic uncertainty dissuading people from moving but also as a result of practical problems of surveyors visiting homes to prepare a mortgage valuation” he says.

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Ray, credit to you for breaking ranks but please can everyone stop with this getting everyone used to an unpalatable idea nonsense it wastes everyone's time.  It going to be 25-40% in London and all the other markets overdue a correction which will be starved of erstwhile dirty money, tax free pension cash, recycled equity and interest only loans.
Its bleedin obvious.  After a while the public are going to realise that the extending and pretending that both Labour and Tory govts have indulged in is actually quite cruel in the long run.

 

 

num_ass.jpg

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9 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

If they say 10% they mean 35% min.

Sounds about right.   In the small close (12 houses) I am living in there are three houses that have been on the market off and on for two years and they can't sell them and this is in the South East.  There is no chance they will sell them now for anything approaching the values these vendors think they are worth.

Edited by dougless
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3 minutes ago, dougless said:

Sounds about right.   In the small close (12 houses) I am living in there are three houses that have been on the market off and on for two years and they can't sell them and this is in the South East.  There is no chance they will sell them now for anything approaching the values these vendors think they are worth.

Sounds familiar to a street that I am watching, some go SSTC but then come back. A sale (the 2nd most recent) was in 2016 was for £350,000 (a terrible value deal) and since then everyone else has used that as an anchor, first trying to get above that and then reducing to this level, then a little bit under it. 

I've counted at least 5 houses trying to get out in this way at varying price points of £325,000 to £350,000, don't think any have succeeded as yet.

I've read mumsnet and there isn't really any widespread acceptance that prices may fall (all they see is a market that isn't moving and don't question why that is), when they do that will be pretty funny.

 

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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