Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

U S Interest Rates Tipped To Go To 5%--at Least

Recommended Posts

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060206/94/g33u4.html

Dollar rises as market eyes rates of 5%
The US dollar firmed in European trade on Monday as Friday’s strong labour market data fanned expectations that US interest rates will hit 5 per cent later this year.
Non-farm payrolls growth exceeded expectations, at least when upward revisions to previous months’ data were taken into account, the rate of earnings growth rose and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since mid-2001.
This data not only bolstered expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will hike rates by a further quarter-point to 4.75 per cent in March, but also
led the market to increasingly price in the prospect of rates of 5 per cent later in the year.

With higher IR and lower employment accompanied by increasing bankruptcy/company liquidations what else is holding HPI up? Opinion only it seems. Sentiment can change like the wind.

US GDP to soar higher:

http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_U-S--stron...r_14084700.html

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060206/94/g33u4.html

Dollar rises as market eyes rates of 5%
The US dollar firmed in European trade on Monday as Friday’s strong labour market data fanned expectations that US interest rates will hit 5 per cent later this year.
Non-farm payrolls growth exceeded expectations, at least when upward revisions to previous months’ data were taken into account, the rate of earnings growth rose and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since mid-2001.
This data not only bolstered expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will hike rates by a further quarter-point to 4.75 per cent in March, but also
led the market to increasingly price in the prospect of rates of 5 per cent later in the year.

With higher IR and lower employment accompanied by increasing bankruptcy/company liquidations what else is holding HPI up? Opinion only it seems. Sentiment can change like the wind.

US GDP to soar higher:

http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_U-S--stron...r_14084700.html

marvellous, pay back time . will see what greedy gordon does

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone know what % of UK trade is with US and EU?

Yet ask most people what they expect the next UK rate move to be and they will say a cut.

"they won't let the rates go up" I still hear.

Can't believe my ears!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone know what % of UK trade is with US and EU?

Yet ask most people what they expect the next UK rate move to be and they will say a cut.

"they won't let the rates go up" I still hear.

Can't believe my ears!

It is huge--I believe the UK is the biggest partner with the US:

http://www.uktradeinvestusa.com/DBUK/inves...24&other_ID=362

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

marvellous, pay back time . will see what greedy gordon does

What if Greedy Gordon wants his cake and eats it. What if the $120 Billion worth of US treasuries bought in the last year are designed to be a hedge against a sterling devalued for the rest of us through artificially low interest rates.

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

UK now the proud owners of $223 Billion worth of US debt, all well and good as sterling falls but what if the Dollar crashes as may predict?

Edited by Riser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

British Pound Takes A Beating

Down 1.75% today!

Time to raise the rates? They won't do it though as stealth devaluation seems to be the strategy for the foreseeable future...

1.74 right now. The financial press has consistently stated that the pound's underlying strength was due to a healthy housing market. A healthy market that is. The markets may be getting skittish due to the bankruptcy projections and the fact that not all regions in the UK are seeing HPI--just the ones the VIs report. The rat is beginning to smell.

Time to invest in Japan:

http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Japan-rati...P_14085956.html

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the US mortgage IR rates are going up also--Al's conundrum seems to be solving itself--long term rates starting to reflect short term rate increases:

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=254942

"Rates are rising amid investors' concerns about inflation flaring up."
Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sterling's still tanking. Rapidly approaching -2% against the US$...

Will it break through $1.745?

1.7437 Gordon's game's up! 5:20 GMT

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.7443 Gordon's game's up! 5:15 GMT

Gordon's ship has been off course for some time now. Not only is it off course, but it's letting in water.

Those wishing for an interest rate cut are foolish. Global interest rates are on the rise.

A lowering of interest rates now will be the kiss of death to sterling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh oh. Expect the unexpected. Last August the rate cut was feted as the first of several and bulls said rates down to 4% by spring 2006. Er, think again.

The market has woken up to a new year and here we are. US rates to 5% while ours are at 4.5%. This is what Mervyn is paid to do - balance the whole thing. Rates here go up then HP collapse and economy down. Rates static, then £ collapse and inflation up...

We have again manufactured a situation where we are at the mercy of the US/Dollar. At least that much is not new.

Edited by Tempest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surely the pound has been overvalued against the dollar for quite some time. It is just being allowed to find its nominal long tem rate of around £1 = $1.50.

Correct me if i am wrong, or if there is some underlying strategy BIG Gordy has up his sleeve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gordon's ship has been off course for some time now. Not only is it off course, but it's letting in water.

Those wishing for an interest rate cut are foolish. Global interest rates are on the rise.

A lowering of interest rates now will be the kiss of death to sterling.

I would not be at all surprised if it was that FT article (no longer downloadable free--see other thread)advising customers to stay clear of property in the UK? The FT is read by a lot of big money around the world and is highly influential. Up to that artcile appearing its been mostly fluffy pieces from Mortgage banks and EAs where there is a yawning credibility gap.

https://registration.ft.com/registration/ba...00779e2340.html

Investors warned to avoid property
By Jim Pickard,Property Correspondent
Published: February 4 2006 02:00 | Last updated: February 4 2006 02:00
Investors should steer clear of buying UK properties for the next few years, the head of real estate at HSBC Private Bank has warned.
Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few weeks of going sideways and the trend looks like it will continue again.

Even more pressure on energy/commodity prices. Last manufacturer out of Britain turn off the light. Once we don;t make anything foreign manufacturers can set their prices for import into the UK at whatever they think they can get away with. Not called Treasure Island for nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Pound was at 1.71 back in November so whilst these falls are impressive (lost over 1% on Friday too) I am not going to get too excited until I see less than 1.70. Now if we get there by the end of this week I will be tempted to say that a run is developing.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Pound was at 1.71 back in November so whilst these falls are impressive (lost over 1% on Friday too) I am not going to get too excited until I see less than 1.70. Now if we get there by the end of this week I will be tempted to say that a run is developing.......

I can recall back in the 80's when it hit 1.05 for a short while--my out-laws from the States were in hog heaven! I am holding all my STR in US $ but will wait until we see 1.65 before converting any to sterling. Many say the $ is in trouble--it may be but sterling is in far worse shape IMHO. With the Middle East looking like the prelude to WW3 the safe bet has always been US bonds. I think the odds are evens on Iran getting greased in the next few months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can recall back in the 80's when it hit 1.05 for a short while--my out-laws from the States were in hog heaven! I am holding all my STR in US $ but will wait until we see 1.65 before converting any to sterling. Many say the $ is in trouble--it may be but sterling is in far worse shape IMHO. With the Middle East looking like the prelude to WW3 the safe bet has always been US bonds. I think the odds are evens on Iran getting greased in the next few months.

I don't think the Americans will do anything too drastic in Iran. If Iran shuts of the oil then we are all heading into a serious depression, a al 1929. As for a good old recession, well the die is cast, looking at all the data.

Think of it this way

We need their oil....

They need our money, or how else are they going to pay for that nice big bang they want to build....

Edited by FTBagain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think the Americans will do anything too drastic in Iran. If Iran shuts of the oil then we are all heading into a serious depression, a al 1929. As for a good old recession, well the die is cast, looking at all the data.

Think of it this way

We need their oil....

They need our money, or how else are they going to pay for that nice big bang they want to build....

The Russians will build it for free. Israel will not tolerate a Nuke armed rogue nation like Iran to continue in existence. The West has an itchy trigger finger after the "Cartoon" debacle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With the Middle East looking like the prelude to WW3 the safe bet has always been US bonds. I think the odds are evens on Iran getting greased in the next few months.

I keep saying it... Iran is going to be one big mess and it will be, I believe, 'the unknown' that crashes the housing market rapidly as a result of panic in the global economy, oil prices flying through the ceiling and people running around shouting "Don't panic!"!

It is not if but when IMPO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4684844.stm

Iran nuclear fears fuel oil price
The Iran problem is one of a number that has propped up oil prices
Oil prices have risen sharply on news that Iran will no longer allow snap inspection of its nuclear sites.
Meanwhile, US President George W Bush said the move "sent a clear message to the regime in Iran" that it could not gain nuclear weapons.

Make my day....... :angry:

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am expecting them, any day now, to switch off the oil taps - no more supply coming out of Iran to the West. Just imagine what will happen to the global economy in the first 60 minutes after they announce that they have done so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Russians will build it for free. Israel will not tolerate a Nuke armed rogue nation like Iran to continue in existence. The West has an itchy trigger finger after the "Cartoon" debacle.

I doubt it. The Russians like to sell Iran lots a weapons and stuff, but the Russians have their own Islamic problem. They would not be too chuffed at the idea that the Iranians could mount a Nuc on top of their mobile ballistic missiles, which if Janes are to be believed (and they are probably one of the more effective intelligence serivices :) ) the latest versions will be able to hit Moscow in the not too distant future.

Na Moscow will not build Irans Nuc. As for Isreal well they could be the wild card in the pack, but if they do trigger a global depression, by bombing Iran, then their backers are likely to go broke!

Edited by FTBagain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With regard to the build up of tensions in the Middle east:

"And I saw something like a sea of glass mingled with fire, and those who have victory over the beast , over his image and over his mark and over the number of his name , standing on the sea of glass, having harps of God." Revelation 15:2

For centuries scholars have wondered what the "sea of glass" represented. This passage refers to the Biblical prophecies of end times and the final conflict said to take place in the Middle East after Israel is reformed into a nation. When a Nuke is detonated at ground zero on desert soil the heat generated creates a large area of glass that has the appearance of a sea.

If this is "it" we may not have to worry too much about HPi vs. HPC for much longer! :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am expecting them, any day now, to switch off the oil taps - no more supply coming out of Iran to the West. Just imagine what will happen to the global economy in the first 60 minutes after they announce that they have done so.

Yup!

If I was them I would switch it off for a day so two, due to Technical problems, then I would turn it back on. After all I want all those nice hard western curracies to pay my scientists to build my bomb.

The markets would be in turmoil for months and the West would be scared stiff of triggering a major depression. Talk about a gun to yer head. And Iran is holding it. Oooops!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.